????盡管媒體對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車頗有微詞，但現(xiàn)在就說要放棄它還為時(shí)尚早。目前，包括特斯拉（Tesla）S，通用沃藍(lán)達(dá)（Volt）和日產(chǎn)聆風(fēng)（Leaf）在內(nèi)，市面上共有8家廠商生產(chǎn)的14款插電式電動(dòng)汽車。不過它們的銷量可不盡如人意。據(jù)電動(dòng)車交通協(xié)會(huì)（Electric Drive Transportation Association）稱，今年迄今為止美國(guó)一共只售出了68,000輛插電式混動(dòng)車和純電動(dòng)汽車，而汽車總銷量卻有1170萬輛之巨，兩者相比差距懸殊。同時(shí)，個(gè)數(shù)字也遠(yuǎn)低于業(yè)內(nèi)預(yù)期，表明公眾除了對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車的續(xù)航里程深表焦慮外——比如在漆黑的鄉(xiāng)間小路上突然沒電了，也非常擔(dān)心它的高額成本。

????不過，來自普華永道公司（PWC）的一份全新研究卻稱，電動(dòng)汽車的未來可能比多數(shù)人所想象的更光明。在這份名為《汽車電池最新動(dòng)態(tài)》（Battery Update）的報(bào)告中，這家咨詢公司調(diào)研LG公司、三星公司（Samsung）和三洋公司（Sanyo）等主要汽車廠商和電池生產(chǎn)商后發(fā)現(xiàn)，到2020年末，規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)將大幅降低車用鋰電池的價(jià)格。普華永道清潔交通實(shí)踐部的主管奧利佛?哈茲梅說：“這個(gè)行業(yè)剛剛起步，將會(huì)經(jīng)歷很多起伏。但我們?nèi)匀簧钚?，電?dòng)汽車不是會(huì)不會(huì)、而是什么時(shí)候會(huì)普及的問題?！?/p>

????他的這種樂觀來自于他所目睹的汽車電池大幅下降的價(jià)格走勢(shì)。普華永道稱，目前汽車電池每千瓦成本是600多美元，意味著一輛純電動(dòng)汽車所需的一塊20千瓦電池需要12,000美元——而目前一臺(tái)普通內(nèi)燃機(jī)的成本大概只有2,000美元。普華永道相信，到2020年電池成本將下降一半到每千瓦300美元，使電池與內(nèi)燃機(jī)的成本差距縮小到4,000美元左右。鑒于電動(dòng)汽車不需要昂貴的變速箱和傳統(tǒng)系統(tǒng)，這個(gè)價(jià)差還將進(jìn)一步縮小。

????再考慮到每英里所需的電能要比汽油便宜得多，電動(dòng)汽車對(duì)消費(fèi)者來說就更具吸引力了——哪怕沒有政府補(bǔ)貼也是一樣。至于對(duì)續(xù)航里程的擔(dān)心，汽車廠商也將提供兩種選擇讓大家消除顧慮，一種是專供城區(qū)使用的廉價(jià)、短距離電動(dòng)汽車，一種是用于更長(zhǎng)路途、價(jià)格較高的電動(dòng)汽車。比如特斯拉公司就已經(jīng)開始提供電池容量和續(xù)航里程都有所差異的Model S。

????什么因素能讓汽車電池的成本降到這種程度呢？普華永道估計(jì)，全球電動(dòng)汽車市場(chǎng)只需要每年增長(zhǎng)2.5-3%就行。美國(guó)目前的銷售增幅大概是5%，歐洲是4%，而中國(guó)是3%。要保持這種增幅似乎并不困難。

????至于2020年以后電動(dòng)汽車的走勢(shì)，哈茲梅表示，目前正在實(shí)驗(yàn)室中測(cè)試的新技術(shù)到2025年會(huì)讓鋰電池的價(jià)格降到每千瓦200美元，將使電動(dòng)汽車有能力與傳統(tǒng)汽車展開正面競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。哈茲梅由衷感嘆：“電動(dòng)汽車將成為汽車行業(yè)的終極追求?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：清遠(yuǎn)????????

????Despite rumblings in the press, it's not time yet to give up on the electric car. Currently 14 plug-in models are available from eight automotive manufacturers including the Tesla S (TSLA), the GM Volt (GM), and the Nissan Leaf (NSANY). But sales have been disappointing. According to the Electric Drive Transportation Association, only 68,000 plug-in hybrids and all-electrics have been sold in the U.S. so far this year. That compares to 11.7 million cars sold in total. That rate is well below industry estimates, suggesting that the public is wary of the high costs of EVs plus the dreaded range anxiety -- running out of juice on a dark country road.

????A new study by PWC, however, argues that the future of EVs might be brighter than most think. The consulting firm, in its study "Battery Update," surveyed major automakers and battery manufacturers such as LG, Samsung, and Sanyo, and found that economies of scale will significantly drive down the price of car lithium ion batteries by the end of the decade. Says Oliver Hazimeh, who leads the clean transportation practice at PWC, "It's a nascent industry that will suffer a lot of ups and down. But we still believe fundamentally that the electric car is a matter of not if, but when."

????His optimism springs from what he sees as a steep, downward pricing curve. According to PWC, electric car batteries now cost a little more than $600 a kilowatt, meaning a 20 KW battery needed to power an all electric car runs about $12,000 dollars -- compared to about $2,000 for a conventional combustion engine. PWC believes that by 2020 battery costs will drop by half to $300 a KW, reducing the gap between electric and gasoline to about $4,000. Considering that electrical cars don't need costly transmissions and drive trains, that gap would be smaller still.

????Add in that electricity per mile is much cheaper than gasoline, and the equation for the consumer starts to get very attractive -- even without government subsidies. And about that range anxiety? Carmakers will offer two choices, EVs that are cheap and have a low range for city driving, and ones that are more expensive for longer trips. Tesla already offers different battery sizes with different ranges on the S model.

????What will it take to drive battery prices down this much? PWC estimates that the global EV market will only need to grow 2.5 to 3% annually. Already in the U.S. sales are growing about 5% a year; in Europe 4% and in China 3%. Maintaining this kind of growth rate hardly seems a stretch.

????As for the fate of EVs beyond 2020, Hazimeh says new innovations now being tested in the labs should drive the price of lithium ion batteries down to $200 a kilowatt by 2025, which will make EVs straight-on competitive with conventional cars. Says Hazimeh: "It's the holy grail."????????