????上個月，IBM指出它在新興市場上的收益下跌了9%，這主要是由于中國經(jīng)濟政策的調(diào)整導致的。這次思科的收益預期一出，又引起了人們的一番爭論，比如有人表示中國是因為美國禁止進口華為的產(chǎn)品而在進行報復，也有人稱這與美國國安局泄密事件的進一步發(fā)酵有關(guān)等等。但是思科的問題遠非中國政策調(diào)整那么簡單。

????在上周二的年度股東大會上，錢伯斯進一步解釋道：“我相信，由于各種原因共同導致，使我們現(xiàn)在正處于一個經(jīng)濟增長比正常情況下慢得多的時期。”他還表示，對于新興經(jīng)濟體來說，“他們很可能會出現(xiàn)硬著陸……我們的數(shù)據(jù)表明，經(jīng)濟形勢可能會變得更困難?！?/p>

????錢伯斯的看法與經(jīng)濟合作與發(fā)展組織（OECD）的看法不謀而合。OECD近日表示，由于印度、巴西等新興市場的經(jīng)濟可能將很快放緩，因而該組織調(diào)低了對今年和明年全球經(jīng)濟增長的預測。

????1998年的亞洲金融風暴期間，思科公司加大了在新興市場的投資，因此等這個地區(qū)從危機中恢復過來之后，思科在該地區(qū)好幾個國家的市場份額都有所增強。這次我們尚不清楚該公司是否還會采取這樣激進的策略。錢伯斯上周二在回答一位股東問題的時候說：“考慮到市場的不確定性，我們打算留下一部分的‘彈藥’，等待機會?！?/p>

????思科可能還會利用它的現(xiàn)金囤積它自己的股份。上個季度，思科公司斥資20億美元回購自己的股票。去年同一季度，思科也回購了價值2.53億美元的本公司股票，約合今年這筆交易的八分之一。上周，思科表示公司將為回購計劃斥資150億美元，也就是說，未來思科還將回購價值310億美元的股份。

????或許思科依然擅于預測全球經(jīng)濟的變化，但如果它也深陷在這股長期艱難的低潮里無法自拔，恐怕也很難能利用這種能力為自己服務(wù)。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：樸成奎

????Last month, IBM (IBM) reported a 9% drop in revenue from emerging markets, driven largely by China's shift in economic policies. Cisco's earnings forecast spurred discussion that China is retaliating against U.S. policies limiting the import of telecom equipment from Huawei, as well as the fallout from the NSA leaks. But Cisco's problems went well beyond China.

????At its annual shareholder meeting Tuesday, Chambers elaborated further. "I believe that we are in a period of much slower economic growth than we should be in for a whole bunch of different reasons," he said. In terms of emerging economies, "they are going to hit pretty hard ... Our numbers would indicate it might get tougher before it gets better."

????Chambers comments Tuesday coincided with news that the OECD was cutting its global growth forecasts for this year and next, citing an imminent slowdown in emerging markets like India and Brazil.

????During the 1998 financial crisis in Asia, Cisco increased its investment in the region, strengthening its market share in several countries when they recovered. It's not clear the company will be so aggressive this time. "We've decided that given the uncertainty of the market, we want to keep a certain amount of our powder dry in terms of opportunities," Chambers said in answer to a shareholder question Tuesday.

????Instead, Cisco will be applying its cash to shore up its own stock. Last quarter, the company bought $2 billion of its own stock. In the same quarter a year earlier, Cisco bought $253 million, or one-eighth as much. The company also said last week it would increase its repurchase program by $15 billion, giving it a total of $31 billion to spend on its flagging stock in the future.

????Cisco may be as prescient as ever about predicting shifts in the global economy, but as long as it's stuck in the middle of a long and difficult turnaround it will have a hard time taking advantage of them.