????科技行業(yè)喜歡弱勢(shì)群體，特別是那些充滿斗志而且勇于挑戰(zhàn)行業(yè)巨無(wú)霸的初創(chuàng)型企業(yè)。企業(yè)軟件領(lǐng)域的Workday就處于這樣的弱勢(shì)地位。這家人力資源軟件公司將業(yè)務(wù)模式建立在云技術(shù)之上，同時(shí)和甲骨文（Oracle）、SAP這樣的大型企業(yè)正面抗衡。

????Workday成立于2005年，由戴夫?達(dá)菲爾德和安尼爾?布斯里創(chuàng)立。2004年，他們的公司仁科（PeopleSoft）遭到了甲骨文的敵意收購(gòu)。達(dá)菲爾德是一名資深軟件人，對(duì)甲骨文幾乎沒(méi)有感情可言。收購(gòu)消息傳來(lái)時(shí)，他正獨(dú)自待在一家旅館的房間里。

????Workday并不是一筆回報(bào)，恰恰相反，它代表著一個(gè)機(jī)遇，那就是在甲骨文尚未顧及的領(lǐng)域建立一家成功的軟件公司。這個(gè)領(lǐng)域就是軟件即服務(wù)（software as a service），或者說(shuō)旨在滿足云需求的人力資源軟件項(xiàng)目。去年初，本刊撰稿人JP?曼加林丹注意到，Workday已經(jīng)迫使甲骨文和SAP等大公司開(kāi)始采取防守策略。

????2012年10月，Workday以每股28美元的價(jià)格首發(fā)上市，市值為45億美元。隨后的14個(gè)月中，這個(gè)數(shù)字增增至近三倍，達(dá)到140億美元，是客戶關(guān)系管理解決方案供應(yīng)商Salesforce.com的一半，甲骨文的十一分之一。到截至下個(gè)月的財(cái)年中，Workday的收入預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)70%，接近上一財(cái)年77%的增幅。擴(kuò)大收入的同時(shí)，這家公司也在逐步提升毛利潤(rùn)率，它上個(gè)季度的毛利潤(rùn)率已經(jīng)達(dá)到了64%.

????幾周前，Workday公布了超出預(yù)期的業(yè)績(jī)。不僅如此，它自行預(yù)測(cè)的本季度收入也超過(guò)了分析師估算的水平，引起了華爾街的關(guān)注。本季度，這家公司又簽下了50位客戶，新推出的財(cái)務(wù)管理軟件也引起了多家公司的興趣，表明它有可能成功進(jìn)入新的業(yè)務(wù)領(lǐng)域。分析人士對(duì)此感到很興奮。

????研究機(jī)構(gòu)Jeffries & Co.分析師羅斯?麥克米倫寫(xiě)道：“我們認(rèn)為Workday是軟件板塊中上漲潛力最誘人的個(gè)股之一。”證券公司Pacific Crest分析師布倫丹?巴尼克爾也說(shuō)：“這家公司的財(cái)務(wù)軟件增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭不減，非常令人鼓舞，因?yàn)檫@項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)是它今后繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的最大動(dòng)力?！?/p>

????如果達(dá)菲爾德和布斯里打算復(fù)仇，那么他們已經(jīng)接近目標(biāo)了。和Salesforce.com一樣，Workday正在讓云技術(shù)企業(yè)軟件所帶來(lái)的希望逐步成為現(xiàn)實(shí)。按需服務(wù)的業(yè)務(wù)模式已經(jīng)奏效，Workday也成了華爾街的寵兒——今年以來(lái)，這家公司的股價(jià)上漲了46%。這樣的受青睞程度當(dāng)然超過(guò)了目前股價(jià)和年初持平的SAP和甲骨文，甚至也超過(guò)了股價(jià)下跌9%的IBM。

????目前只有一個(gè)問(wèn)題——盈利對(duì)Workday來(lái)說(shuō)還遙不可及。利潤(rùn)是投資者非常重視的經(jīng)營(yíng)指標(biāo)，從這個(gè)角度來(lái)說(shuō)Workday尚未成功。

????看好Workday的投資者認(rèn)為，這家公司為今后的增長(zhǎng)投入了大量資金，而且每股虧損正在減少。上個(gè)季度，它每股虧損0.27美元，遠(yuǎn)低于一年前的0.67美元。這兩點(diǎn)都沒(méi)錯(cuò)，但每股虧損有誤導(dǎo)作用：Workday的普通股已從一年前的6200萬(wàn)股增加到了1.74億股，增幅接近300%。實(shí)際上，這家公司上個(gè)季度的凈虧損從一年前的4100萬(wàn)美元增加到了4800萬(wàn)美元。

????運(yùn)營(yíng)費(fèi)用占收入的百分比正在下降，但降幅不大。今年前9個(gè)月，Workday的運(yùn)營(yíng)費(fèi)用/收入比例為132%，上年同期為145%。就算已經(jīng)進(jìn)入財(cái)務(wù)管理軟件等新業(yè)務(wù)領(lǐng)域，但按照這樣的速度計(jì)算，這家公司可能還需要再過(guò)幾年時(shí)間才能實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利。

????下圖所示為Workday的12個(gè)月靜態(tài)收入和虧損。它的收入增長(zhǎng)確實(shí)引人注目，但推動(dòng)收入增長(zhǎng)的是不斷擴(kuò)大的虧損額以及從業(yè)界巨擘那里奪取的市場(chǎng)份額，這一點(diǎn)和其他行業(yè)新貴一模一樣。

????The technology industry loves an underdog, especially when a scrappy startup makes breakfast of a bloated incumbent. In enterprise software, Workday (WDAY) has emerged as just such an underdog, using a cloud-based business model to handle human-resources software and take on giants like Oracle (ORCL) and SAP (SAP).

????Workday was founded in 2005 by Dave Duffield and Aneel Bhusri a year after Oracle made a hostile and successful hostile bid for their previous company, PeopleSoft. Duffield, a software veteran who bore little love for Oracle, received the news in a lonely hotel room.

????Workday wasn't payback, as much as it was a chance to create a successful software company in an area where Oracle wasn't looking – software as a service, or human-resources programs tapped on demand in the cloud. By early last year, as JP Mangalindan noted at the time, Workday had Oracle, SAP and other giants on the defensive.

????In October 2012, Workday went public at $28 a share and a market value of $4.5 billion. In the 14 months since, Workday's market cap has nearly tripled to $14 billion. That's half the value of Salesforce.com (CRM) and one eleventh of Oracle's. The company's revenue is expected to grow 70% in its fiscal year ending next month, after rising 77% last year. That growth is coming as gross margins inch up, to 64% last quarter.

????A few weeks ago, Workday impressed Wall Street by not only beating analyst estimates but also by projecting even better revenue this quarter than they were expecting. Analysts found encouragement in the 50 new customers signed up in the quarter and the interest among companies in its new financial-management software, which showed the company may succeed into branching out into new areas.

????"We believe Workday has amongst the most attractive share gain potential in software," wroteRoss MacMillan of Jeffries & Co. Added Pacific Crest's Brendan Barnicle, "The continued momentum of the financials product is very encouraging, because it is the biggest source of future continued growth for the company."

????If Duffield and Bhusri were looking for revenge, they were close having it. Like Salesforce.com, Workday showed the promise of the cloud in enterprise software was being fulfilled today. The on-demand model is working. Wall Street loves Workday -- sending it up 46% year-to-date -- certainly more than it loved SAP and Oracle, which are flat with the beginning of the year, or even IBM (IBM), which is down 9%.

????There is only one problem. Workday is nowhere near showing a profit. The bottom line -- the metric that is most closely watched among investors -- isn't measuring success.

????Workday bulls argue that the company is investing heavily in future growth, and that the per-share loss is declining. In the most recent quarter, Workday posted a net loss of 27 cents a share, down from 67 cents a year earlier. Both points are true, but the per-share loss is misleading: The company's common shares outstanding nearly tripled over the past year to 174 million from 62 million. The actual net loss rose to $48 million last quarter from $41 million a year earlier.

????Operating expenses are declining as a percentage of revenue, but not by much. In the first nine months of this year, total operating expenses were equal to 132% of Workday's revenue. In the same period in 2012, they were equal to 145%. Granted, Workday was moving into new areas like financial-management software, but at this rate it could take several years for Workday to see black ink.

????The chart below shows the trailing 12-month revenues and losses for Workday. The company is fueling its impressive revenue growth by adding to its losses, taking market share from incumbent giants as an upstart challenger must do.

????此外，就算從收入增長(zhǎng)的角度進(jìn)行評(píng)估，Workday在股市中的表現(xiàn)也已經(jīng)體現(xiàn)出了它在幾年之后才能取得的成就。按目前股價(jià)計(jì)算，這家公司的本財(cái)年預(yù)期股價(jià)/每股銷售額比例為30倍，而Salesforce.com今年的股價(jià)/每股銷售額比例只有7.5倍。

????Salesforce.com于2004年首發(fā)，上市時(shí)間較長(zhǎng)。從下圖中可以看出，在這個(gè)較長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間段內(nèi)，伴隨它收入不斷上升的既有虧損，也有小幅盈利。幾年來(lái)，Salesforce.com的營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)率一直在負(fù)9%到負(fù)1%之間波動(dòng)，不像Workday表現(xiàn)得那么糟糕，但和甲骨文40%左右的營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)率相比仍相差甚遠(yuǎn)。

????But even valued against growing revenue, Workday is priced for success that lies several years away. At its current stock price, Workday is trading at 30 times its estimated earnings for the current fiscal year. That compares to a price-to-sales ratio of 7.5 for Salesforce.com.

????Salesforce has a longer history in the stock market, having debuted in 2004. Its chart shows a longer trend of rising revenue coupled with net losses or slim profits. Salesforce's operating margins have hovered between -1% and -9% for the past couple of years, not as bad as Workday's but also nowhere near Oracle's, which have averaged around 40%.