????下一個布魯克林和底特律

????過去幾年，受兩個宏大故事的驅(qū)動，繁榮因地區(qū)而異的現(xiàn)象備受美國各界關注。其一是底特律，這座城市背負180億美元債務，養(yǎng)老金成為爛攤子，人口不斷流失。其二是布魯克林，房產(chǎn)價格飆升，豪華公寓林立，店鋪里擺滿了新鮮上市的食品。但是，這樣的“雙城記”還將在哪里上演？我們認為，下面這幾個城市將在2014年崛起或衰落：

????新布魯克林

????克利夫蘭。這座城市（見上圖）的市中心正在復興，涌現(xiàn)出的威廉斯堡式街區(qū)不是一個，兩個，而是三個，即：特里蒙特、俄亥俄城和戈登廣場。概率: 63%

????路易斯維爾。蓬勃發(fā)展的獨立音樂節(jié)，隨處可見的快餐車，每月一次的跳蚤市場（點評網(wǎng)站Yelp評論說，這個市場似乎就像是“網(wǎng)絡集市Etsy來到人間”），讓路易斯維爾成為這個紅州中一個炫目的藍點（紅州與藍州為美國選舉政治術語。紅州較支持共和黨，藍州較支持民主黨——譯注）。概率: 91%

????底特律。低于1,000美元的房租吸引來了不少受過大學教育的35歲以下定居者，他們很有可能成為開拓者。一個耐人尋味的變化跡象是：城里現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)看不到頹廢的涂鴉作品。概率: 39%

????第二梯隊：查塔努加，紐瓦克

????新底特律

????羅德島索基特。這個顯赫一時的紡織中心不幸淪為去工業(yè)化的犧牲品。隨后，經(jīng)濟衰退和州政府援助的大幅削減，進一步加快了它的衰退步伐?，F(xiàn)在的失業(yè)率是10％。概率: 38%

????波多黎各。這個自治邦的公共債務高達700億美元，失業(yè)率（14.7%）比美國任何州都要高，勞動力參與率（41%）為各州最低。概率: 54%

????弗雷斯諾。這個位于加州中部的農(nóng)業(yè)中心手頭上已經(jīng)沒有多少現(xiàn)金，同時還深受持續(xù)不斷的幫派問題困擾。另據(jù)都市研究( Metrostudy)提供的數(shù)據(jù)，每千戶家庭就有94.5戶喪失了房屋贖回權。概率: 86%

????第二梯隊：大西洋城，印第安納州加里市。

????The next Brooklyns ... and Detroits

????The American geography of prosperity has been driven by two big narratives in the past few years. On the one hand, there's Detroit, with its $18 billion in debt, pension mess, and population loss. On the other, there's Brooklyn, with its rocketing real estate prices, hip-luxe condos, and freshly foraged food stores. But what's next for this Tale of Two Cities muni-drama? Our bets for 2014's breakout and breakdown towns.

????New Brooklyns

????Cleveland.The city (above) is in the midst of a downtown revival that has seen not one, not two, but three Williamsburg-esque neighborhoods emerge: Tremont, Ohio City, and Gordon Square. Odds: 63%

????Louisville.A thriving indie music scene, food trucks galore, and a monthly flea market (that seems "like Etsy came to life," according to Yelp) now fill this blue dot in a red state. Odds: 91%

????Detroit.College-educated settlers under 35 are drawn to sub-$1,000 rents and the chance to be pioneers. A telltale sign of change: NO HIPSTER graffiti tags showing up around town. Odds: 39%

????Runners-up: Chattanooga; Newark

????New Detroits

????Woonsocket, R.I.The onetime prominent textile hub fell victim to deindustrialization, then the recession, then severe cuts from state aid. Unemployment is now 10%. Odds: 38%

????Puerto Rico.The public debt of this commonwealth is $70 billion, unemployment (at 14.7%) is higher than in any U.S. state, and labor force participation (at 41%) is the lowest.Odds: 54%

????Fresno.The central California agricultural hub has little cash on hand, an ongoing gang issue, and a five-year foreclosure rate of 94.5 per 1,000 households, according to Metrostudy. Odds: 86%

????Runners-up: Atlantic City; Gary, Ind.