????波音公司可能會在中期和長期階段面臨嚴重困難。正如奧本海默公司的耶爾?雷納爾和威廉?李擔心777客機在777X交付之前會賣不出去一樣，布萊恩?弗利擔心的是737客機在短期內(nèi)的銷量。“問題在于，在等待新機型上線之前，波音公司能否賣出足夠數(shù)量的現(xiàn)有737機型，”弗利說?！暗谝患?37 MAX要到2017年才開始服役，而從現(xiàn)在到2017年還有三年的時間?！?/p>

????阿布拉菲亞說，投資者如果想要衡量波音公司的實力，或探詢飛機制造業(yè)的前景，明智的做法可能是退后一步，從更宏觀的層面來觀察這個行業(yè)。一個星期的利好消息，不管好到何種程度，都無法支撐波音公司一年的發(fā)展。而且，雖然過去幾個月中，波音公司的股價一直在上漲，但未來的發(fā)展并不僅僅取決于訂單儲備、生產(chǎn)數(shù)量和勞工合同。

????“波音公司商用飛機的產(chǎn)量和訂單量之所以高漲，很大程度上是因為有著令人難以置信的宏觀有利條件：極低的利率和油價。這兩者的水平都恰到好處——如果太高，航空公司就會掙不到錢；如果太低，會讓老式飛機比新式飛機更有吸引力”，阿布拉菲亞說。“然而，對于波音公司最強大、最賺錢的飛機制造部門來說，還有一個根本性的問題。萬一客觀條件發(fā)生了變化怎么辦？”（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：劉進龍/朱毓芬/汪皓??

????It's in the medium and long term where Boeing may find itself facing serious headwinds. Just as Oppenheimer's Reiner and Lee are concerned with the 777's ability to continue selling until the 777X is delivered, Foley worries about 737 sales in the nearer term. "There's a question of whether they'll be able to sell enough of their existing 737s while waiting for the new iteration to come online," he says. "The first 737 MAX enters service in 2017, and there's three years between now and then."

????For investors looking to gauge the strength of Boeing and the larger aircraft manufacturing sector going forward, it might be wiser to take a step back from the industry and look at it through a wider lens, Aboulafia says. One week of good headlines, no matter how good, won't carry Boeing for an entire year. And bullish though he is on Boeing's past few months, the future isn't dictated solely by order backlogs, production numbers, and labor contracts.

????"You've got continued strong commercial jet numbers largely because you've got an almost impossibly good combination of events in the macro environment: very low interest rates and oil prices that are kind of in a sweet spot -- not to so high that airlines can't make money and not so low that older jets are more attractive than newer ones," he says. "But you've got a fundamental problem for Boeing's strongest and most profitable unit, which is: What if anything changes?"??