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2013年摩根大通到底盈利幾何

2013年摩根大通到底盈利幾何

Stephen Gandel 2014-01-17
摩根大通過去一年到底賺了多少錢?這家銀行官方給出的盈利數(shù)據(jù)接近180億美元。但事實上,綜合計算訴訟支出、回撥的損失計提準(zhǔn)備金等各項數(shù)字,吉米?戴蒙領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下的這家銀行實際上賺的錢要比賬面多出近40億美元。

????此外,摩根大通還有其他非經(jīng)營性損益。這包括轉(zhuǎn)讓Visa公司股份和曼哈頓下城一幢建筑物得到的11億美元收益,以及調(diào)整會計方法后出現(xiàn)的12億美元損失。二者相抵后,該行凈利潤將增加1億美元,升至266億美元。

????不過,在摩根大通公布的利潤中,有一部分實際上并不是來自2013年。這就好像該行向某人出售了產(chǎn)品,比方說貸款,隨后拿到了后者支付的款項。和其他所有銀行一樣,摩根大通必須為今后可能出現(xiàn)的損失計提準(zhǔn)備金。有時候準(zhǔn)備金會計提得過多。金融危機達到頂峰時,情況似乎就是這樣?,F(xiàn)在,摩根大通正在回撥這筆準(zhǔn)備金,而回撥的資金將直接轉(zhuǎn)化為利潤。不過,和訴訟成本一樣,這部分資金確實是非經(jīng)營性收益。2013年,摩根大通回撥了57億美元準(zhǔn)備金??鄢@筆收益,它的利潤就會下降到209億美元。

????答案即將浮出水面。摩根大通還將2013年抵押貸款債權(quán)事務(wù)性服務(wù)權(quán)利(mortgage servicing rights)的價值下調(diào)了11億美元——這是銀行在收賬時出現(xiàn)的負債,可以隨貸款一同轉(zhuǎn)讓給投資者。下調(diào)其價值意味著摩根大通預(yù)計今后這項業(yè)務(wù)帶來的收入將減少。畢竟,這家銀行發(fā)放的抵押貸款已經(jīng)少于幾年前。而且,這不是實際費用,因此讓我們把它加回到摩根大通的利潤之中。我們得到的最終數(shù)字是220億美元,比這家銀行公布的利潤多了22%。

????這個數(shù)字稍高于2012年摩根大通公布的利潤。按同樣方法進行調(diào)整后,2012年該行的利潤約為218億美元。作為在利潤方面和摩根大通不相上下的對手,富國銀行(Wells Fargo)公布的2013年利潤為219億美元,低于我們測算的數(shù)字。當(dāng)然,我還沒有對富國銀行的數(shù)據(jù)進行調(diào)整。

????相對于盈利,有一點需要警惕,那就是2013年摩根大通的收入連續(xù)第三年下跌,只不過跌幅很小。

????過去的一年中,摩根大通出現(xiàn)了數(shù)百億美元的訴訟費用。有人問道,它的股價為什么還能不斷攀升,而且全年漲幅超過30%呢?答案只有一個:摩根大通在這一年的表現(xiàn)實際上相當(dāng)不錯。(財富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:Charlie???

????On top of that, JPMorgan had other one-time gains and charges: $1.1 billion in gains from selling Visa shares and a building in lower Manhattan, and $1.2 billion in losses from accounting adjustments. Net those out and its income goes up by $100 million to $26.6 billion.

????But some of the profits that JPMorgan did include in its reported number wasn't money it actually made in 2013, in the sense that it sold someone a product like a loan and collected a payment for that. JPMorgan, like all banks, has to put away reserves for future potential losses it could have. Sometimes it puts too much away. And it appears that's what happened in the heart of the financial crisis. Now it's taking money out of that account, and when it does, that money goes right to the bottom line. But like the legal costs, that's really a one-time gain. The bank got $5.7 billion from reserve releases in 2013. Take it out, and profits fall to $20.9 billion.

????Almost there. JPMorgan lowered the value of its mortgage servicing rights -- the obligation that a bank takes on to collect payments and pass those along on the loans it sells to investors -- by $1.1 billion in 2013. That reflects that the bank expects to get less revenue from that business in the future. It is, after all, issuing fewer mortgages than it did a few years ago. Still, that's not a real expense. So, let's back that out, too.

????Our final tally: $22 billion, or 22% more than what the bank said it made.

????That's up slightly from last year's reported profits, which, when adjusted in the same way, would have been around $21.8 billion. And it's more than the $21.9 billion that Wells Fargo (WFC), JPMorgan's closed profit rival, said it earned in 2013, though I haven't adjusted that.

????The one caveat to all this is that JPMorgan's revenue in 2013 fell for the third year in a row. But it was only down slightly.

????In the past year, JPMorgan shelled out tens of billions of dollars in legal fees, and some have questioned why the company's stock price has continued to rise, by over 30% in 2013. One answer: JPMorgan actually had a pretty good year.

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