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量化寬松不是給窮人的福利

量化寬松不是給窮人的福利

Stephen Gandel 2014-01-21
有觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)推出量化寬松政策、購(gòu)買(mǎi)債券給窮人帶來(lái)的好處多于富人,這是個(gè)愚蠢的觀點(diǎn)。實(shí)際情況是,根據(jù)最新的研究,本輪經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退以來(lái),美國(guó)貧富差距擴(kuò)大的速度已經(jīng)超過(guò)了此前近20年的水平。

????這份報(bào)告認(rèn)為,量化寬松并未助推股市上行的另一項(xiàng)證據(jù)是市盈率。如果量化寬松提高的是股價(jià)而非盈利,市盈率就應(yīng)該上升。報(bào)告指出,市盈率并沒(méi)有超出歷史正常水平,它還通過(guò)一幅圖表來(lái)證明這一點(diǎn)。

????但那是在11月份。我和理查德?多布斯進(jìn)行了交流,他是這篇報(bào)告的作者之一。我請(qǐng)他更新了這幅圖?,F(xiàn)在它是這個(gè)樣子:?

????Another piece of evidence, according to the report, that QE has not boosted stock prices is the price-to-earnings ratio. If QE had been giving stocks a boost and not earnings, you would expect P/E ratios to go up. But the report says the stock valuation metric is not above historic norms. The report has a chart that shows that fact.

????But that was in November. I talked to one of the McKinsey report's authors, Richard Dobbs, and I had him update the chart in the report. Here's what it looks like now:???

????看到上揚(yáng)的曲線末端了嗎?現(xiàn)在的市盈率遠(yuǎn)高于正常水平,就算剔除了通脹的影響也是如此。多布斯說(shuō),市盈率在2013年陡然上升印證了他的觀點(diǎn)——盡管美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)削減購(gòu)債規(guī)模的意圖已經(jīng)顯而易見(jiàn),但投資者仍在追捧股票。然而,量化寬松現(xiàn)在并未結(jié)束。目前,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)每個(gè)月仍買(mǎi)入750億美元的債券,低于此前每個(gè)月850億美元的水平,但降幅不大。我認(rèn)為,實(shí)際情況是利潤(rùn)增速已經(jīng)放慢,但投資者對(duì)股票依然熱情不減。原因是因?yàn)榱炕瘜捤蓡??外界眾說(shuō)紛紜。

????對(duì)于量化寬松怎樣讓窮人受益,多布斯的最后一條依據(jù)是:量化寬松讓利率下降,帶來(lái)了更低的借貸成本。因此,政府沒(méi)有馬上緊縮開(kāi)支,福利支出得以保全。非也。美國(guó)和歐洲政府都已削減了社會(huì)性支出。多布斯認(rèn)為,如果沒(méi)有量化寬松,削減幅度將更大。我不知道他是怎樣得出這個(gè)結(jié)論的。沒(méi)錯(cuò),利率上升可能意味著更高的赤字,但美國(guó)政府未必會(huì)因此決定削減開(kāi)支。

????量化寬松是金融危機(jī)以來(lái)美國(guó)政府規(guī)模最大、持續(xù)時(shí)間最長(zhǎng)的促增長(zhǎng)措施。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)購(gòu)買(mǎi)的債券已經(jīng)達(dá)到約3萬(wàn)億美元。如果窮人從中獲得的好處真的多于富人,財(cái)富的分配就應(yīng)該比以前更均衡。然而,實(shí)際情況正好相反。本周早些時(shí)候,斯坦福(Stanford)大學(xué)公布的研究結(jié)果表明,本輪經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退以來(lái),美國(guó)貧富差距擴(kuò)大的速度已經(jīng)超過(guò)了此前近20年的水平。

????這種觀點(diǎn)的真正危險(xiǎn)性在于,有些人可能會(huì)說(shuō),有了量化寬松,我們就不需要食品券,也不需要失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)這樣的措施,而只有這些措施的受益者才是窮人、而不是富人。換句話說(shuō),討厭量化寬松或許有許多正當(dāng)理由,比如它正在催生泡沫,它實(shí)際上并沒(méi)有促進(jìn)借貸。但說(shuō)它讓窮人有錢(qián)了不該是其中之一。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:Charlie???

????See that spike at the end? P/E multiples are now well above norms, even when you exclude periods of inflation. Dobbs says the fact that the P/E ratio spike came in 2013 is proof of his point. Investors still bid up stocks even after it became clear that the Fed was going to pull back on bond purchases. But QE hasn't ended. The Fed is still buying $75 billion in bonds a month, which is less than the $85 billion a month it had been purchasing, but not by much. What I think you are really seeing here is that earnings growth has slowed, but investors' appetite for stocks has not. Is that because of QE? It's as good a guess as any.

????Dobbs' final point on how QE has benefited the poor: It has driven down interest rates, and QE has made it cheaper to borrow. That has put off austerity efforts that would cut spending on welfare programs. But it hasn't. Both the U.S. and Europe have cut back on social spending. Dobbs argues that without QE the cuts would have been deeper. But I'm not sure how he gets to that. Yes, higher interest rates would have meant higher deficits, but that doesn't necessarily mean Washington would have decided to cut any more.

????QE has been one of the largest and most persistent stimulus program that the government has enacted since the financial crisis. The Fed has bought roughly $3 trillion in bonds. So if it really benefited the poor more than the rich, then you would expect some rebalancing of wealth. But, in fact, the opposite has occurred. Earlier this week, a Stanford study found that wealth inequality has risen faster since the recession than it had in the nearly two decades before.

????The real danger in this thinking is that with QE in place some may say we don't need programs like food stamps or unemployment insurance, programs that do actually benefit the poor and not the rich. Put another way: There may be a lot of valid reasons to dislike like QE. It's creating a bubble. It's not actually boosting lending. But the argument that it makes the poor richer should not be one of them.

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