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比特幣能顛覆匯兌市場(chǎng)嗎?

比特幣能顛覆匯兌市場(chǎng)嗎?

David Z. Morris 2014-02-12
ZipZap這樣的比特幣倡導(dǎo)者和初創(chuàng)公司希望借助這種虛擬貨幣降低現(xiàn)有匯兌服務(wù)的高額手續(xù)費(fèi),讓跨國(guó)員工能夠以幾乎免費(fèi)的價(jià)格把錢寄回家,從而為消除世界的貧困現(xiàn)象獻(xiàn)一份力。但是匯兌市場(chǎng)中像西聯(lián)國(guó)際匯款公司這樣的巨頭并不打算坐以待斃。

????艾倫?薩法西認(rèn)為現(xiàn)有的匯兌服務(wù)提供商自鳴得意、效率低下,對(duì)通過(guò)可用的在線識(shí)別和合規(guī)手段來(lái)降低成本置若罔聞?!拔以诖蟾乓荒昵叭チ颂宋髀?lián)匯款。整張申請(qǐng)單都需要手工填寫,花了我10分鐘時(shí)間,然后柜臺(tái)后面的女士又花了10分鐘時(shí)間把信息輸入電腦。我為什么不自己在電腦上打好了再過(guò)去呢?”他還問(wèn)道:“為什么西聯(lián)匯款或速匯金(不)在第一次交易之后給你打個(gè)折呢?”,因?yàn)榻灰壮晒@本身就說(shuō)明已經(jīng)滿足基本法律規(guī)定了。ZipZap已經(jīng)開(kāi)始采用這些方法——它的所有交易也都符合相關(guān)的英國(guó)法律。薩法西說(shuō):“不要讓人耍了,說(shuō)滿足規(guī)定需要花很多錢,這都是騙人的?!眹?guó)際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)對(duì)此表示贊同,并在一份報(bào)告中指出:“缺乏透明度”是全球范圍內(nèi)匯兌價(jià)格居高不下的主要原因。

????ZipZap希望以類似現(xiàn)金兌換比特幣的收費(fèi)提供比特幣兌換現(xiàn)金的服務(wù),這就意味著比起西聯(lián)匯款11%的價(jià)位,佛羅里達(dá)到肯尼亞的匯兌只需要大約3%的手續(xù)費(fèi)。薩法西提醒說(shuō):“這不會(huì)在一夜之間就發(fā)生,”但這種情況會(huì)改變匯兌相關(guān)領(lǐng)域的經(jīng)濟(jì)情況——并給現(xiàn)有的匯兌服務(wù)提供商帶來(lái)巨大的挑戰(zhàn)。至于ZipZap自身如何通過(guò)這些交易實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利,給員工開(kāi)工資,薩法西推測(cè),他的公司和類似的服務(wù)提供商也許最終會(huì)像某些網(wǎng)游一樣,采用“免費(fèi)+增值”模式,“給全球各地想要買賣比特幣的用戶提供免費(fèi)服務(wù),同時(shí)你也出售一些用戶愿意購(gòu)買的附加服務(wù)?!弊詈螅狼槿f(wàn)丈地說(shuō):“ZipZap會(huì)找到其他方法來(lái)盈利,絕不會(huì)剝削大眾。”

????然而,實(shí)際上,薩法西偉大的長(zhǎng)期構(gòu)想也許會(huì)是導(dǎo)致他破產(chǎn)的一個(gè)因素。它就是一個(gè)甚至沒(méi)有必要將比特幣兌換成現(xiàn)金的世界。比如,他說(shuō):“85%的匯兌實(shí)際上是賬單支付。會(huì)有一些讓人們使用比特幣付款的服務(wù)在網(wǎng)上涌現(xiàn)?!比魏蔚胤降娜硕寄芤缘土膬r(jià)格給其他任何人匯款。同樣的情況也許最終會(huì)發(fā)生在商品上,比特幣錢包服務(wù)商KryptoKit的安東尼?迪?約里奧說(shuō):“等到越來(lái)越多的商家開(kāi)始接受(比特幣),你就不用把它兌換成本地貨幣了?!币坏┈F(xiàn)金從這個(gè)等式中消失,從一個(gè)比特幣錢包到另一個(gè)的全球匯兌就可以在幾分鐘內(nèi)完成,花費(fèi)也是微乎其微。

????Appleseed的施特勞斯的預(yù)言則比較悲觀:政府會(huì)對(duì)比特幣進(jìn)行管制,它的功能將不復(fù)存在?!爸袊?guó)的反應(yīng)就是我認(rèn)為各國(guó)政府未來(lái)將會(huì)采取的行動(dòng)?!敝袊?guó)已經(jīng)禁止銀行開(kāi)展現(xiàn)金兌換比特幣的交易。“比特幣能夠讓人繞開(kāi)所有的反洗錢法律……因此政府不可能給它亮綠燈。”

????政府如果真刀真槍地開(kāi)始制裁比特幣,對(duì)薩法西來(lái)說(shuō)則是一場(chǎng)災(zāi)難,不僅是作為一個(gè)商人,而是作為一名世界公民。他說(shuō):“有60億人馬上就可以從比特幣中獲益。我們需要專注于確保比特幣的繁榮發(fā)展,獲得成功,讓人們擺脫貧困?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:嚴(yán)匡正

????Alan Sahafi accuses established remittance players of complacency and inefficiency, ignoring cost savings of available online identification and compliance methods. "I went to a Western Union place a year or so ago. I had to write the entire application by hand, and it took me 10 minutes, and it took the lady behind the counter another 10 minutes to type it up. Why wasn't I doing that on my computer before I went there?" Further, he asks, "why [don't] Western Union or Moneygram offer you a discount after your first transaction?", after which basic compliance is fulfilled. ZipZap is already using those methods -- all of its transactions meet relevant U.K. regulations. "Don't let people fool you that this thing costs a lot of money," says Safahi. "It's just smoke and mirrors." The International Monetary Fund agrees, saying in a report that "lack of transparency" is a major reason for high remittance costs worldwide.

????ZipZap expects to offer cash-out fees similar to those for cash-in, meaning that the Florida-to-Kenya transaction would cost about 3% to Western Union's 11%. "It's not going to happen overnight," Safahi warns, but that scenario would transform economies dependent on remittances -- and present a huge challenge to existing providers. As for how ZipZap itself will make money on these transactions and still pay agents, Safahi speculates that his and similar services may ultimately operate on a "freemium" model similar to some online games, "where you provide free service to anyone anywhere who wants to buy and sell bitcoin, and you sell additional services that people are willing to pay for." Ultimately, he says with passion, "ZipZap will find other ways to make money than gouging people."

????In fact, though, Safahi's greatest long-term dream seems to be one that would put him out of business -- a world where cashing out of bitcoin isn't even necessary. For instance, he says, "85% of remittance is basically bill payment. There are services coming online that will let people pay bills with bitcoin," which could be done from any locale to any other very cheaply. The same may eventually go for goods: "When you have more and more merchants accepting [bitcoin], you wouldn't have to be converting it back to local currencies," says Anthony Di Iorio of KryptoKit, a bitcoin wallet service. Once cash is removed from the equation, global remittances, from one bitcoin wallet to another, could be executed in minutes and cost tiny fractions of a percent.

????Appleseed's Strauss predicts a darker future, in which governments regulate bitcoin's functionality out of existence. "The Chinese came out with what I would expect governments to do going forward," banning banks from allowing cash-for-bitcoin transactions. "Bitcoin allows for avoidance of all AML laws ... There's no way governments are going to allow it."

????A true government crackdown on bitcoin would be disastrous for Safahi, not just as a businessman, but as a global citizen. "There are 6 billion people who can benefit from bitcoin immediately," he says. "We need to be focused on making sure bitcoin thrives, and helping it grow and be successful and bring people out of poverty."

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