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康卡斯特-時(shí)代華納合并預(yù)示傳媒業(yè)未來(lái)

康卡斯特-時(shí)代華納合并預(yù)示傳媒業(yè)未來(lái)

Stephen Gandel 2014年02月17日
康卡斯特與時(shí)代華納有線公司宣布合并意味著,投資界更看好傳媒行業(yè)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,而不是內(nèi)容。這對(duì)一些一直堅(jiān)信“內(nèi)容為王”的傳媒行業(yè)從業(yè)者來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)沉重的打擊。

????上周四上午,康卡斯特(Comcast)與時(shí)代華納有線(Time Warner Cable)宣布合并。對(duì)于這筆交易,有一個(gè)很好的問題:康卡斯特CEO布萊恩?羅伯茨為什么沒有收購(gòu)維亞康姆(Viacom)?沒有收購(gòu)福克斯(Fox)?也沒有收購(gòu)時(shí)代華納公司【Time Warner,目前還是《財(cái)富》雜志(Fortune)的母公司】?

????相反,康卡斯特卻決定斥資450億美元,合并美國(guó)排名前兩位的有線電視公司。

????多年前,羅伯茨給外界留下的印象似乎是,康卡斯特正在向內(nèi)容公司轉(zhuǎn)變,或者會(huì)加大向這方面的傾斜。早在2004年,羅伯茨就曾經(jīng)出價(jià)660億美元,計(jì)劃收購(gòu)迪士尼(Disney)。雖然最后遭到了拒絕,但這并不能阻止羅伯茨。2011年,康卡斯特以300億美元獲得NBC環(huán)球(NBCUniversal)51%的股份,后來(lái)又斥資170億美元,完成了對(duì)NBC環(huán)球的收購(gòu)。

????但有這樣一個(gè)事實(shí):雖然羅伯茨做了許多表面文章,也進(jìn)行了幾宗大型交易,但康卡斯特實(shí)際上從來(lái)沒有出現(xiàn)過(guò)向內(nèi)容公司轉(zhuǎn)變的跡象。下面是筆者從康卡斯特最新年報(bào)中摘錄的圖表。

????

????Here's a good question to ask about the Comcast-Time Warner Cable deal that was announced Thursday morning: Why isn't Comcast (CMCSA) CEO Brian Roberts buying Viacom (VIA)? Or Fox (FOXA)? Or Time Warner (TWX) (the owner of Fortune, for now)?

????Instead, Comcast is spending $45 billion to combine the nation's No. 1 and No. 2 cable providers.

????A few years ago, the story Roberts seemed to be selling was that Comcast was transforming itself into a content company, or that it would lean more heavily in that direction. Back in 2004, Roberts offered $66 billion to buy Disney (DIS). He was rebuffed. But that didn't stop Roberts. In 2011, Comcast spent about $30 billion to buy 51% of NBCUniversal, and another $17 billion to fully complete the merger in 2011.

????But here's the thing: Despite Roberts' lip service and big deals, Comcast never really was ever all that close to making the transition to being a content company. Here's a group of charts I took out of Comcast's most recent annual report.

????這家公司63%的收入來(lái)自有線通信,其中包括電視和寬帶通信的銷售。這次與時(shí)代華納有線的交易將使康卡斯特的業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)一步向發(fā)行業(yè)務(wù)傾斜,內(nèi)容的比重將進(jìn)一步減少。合并后的公司將有72%的銷售來(lái)自傳輸業(yè)務(wù)。

????它預(yù)示著康卡斯特將走上與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手截然不同的方向。最明顯的例子就是時(shí)代華納的杰夫?貝克斯。兩年前,貝克斯決定放棄有線業(yè)務(wù),于是拆分了時(shí)代華納有線公司?,F(xiàn)在,羅伯茨卻接手了當(dāng)初被貝克斯拋棄的業(yè)務(wù)。

????但“內(nèi)容為王”是已經(jīng)得到大多數(shù)人接受的一種觀點(diǎn)。而且,這種趨勢(shì)不僅涉及有線業(yè)務(wù),還波及在線甚至無(wú)線領(lǐng)域。許多人認(rèn)為,iTunes和蘋果(Apple)應(yīng)用商店的簡(jiǎn)單和深度才是iPhone手機(jī)熱銷的原因。

????但還有另外一個(gè)事實(shí):雖然各家公司的高管和硅谷初創(chuàng)公司們一直在宣揚(yáng)內(nèi)容為王,但華爾街似乎并不買賬。即使沒有這次交易推動(dòng)股價(jià)上漲,時(shí)代華納有線的市盈率也在20倍左右。時(shí)代華納的電影與電視業(yè)務(wù)(包括目前的雜志)市盈率為17倍??悼ㄋ固氐氖杏矢哌_(dá)21倍。迪士尼也達(dá)到了21倍的高市盈率。而同樣對(duì)時(shí)代華納有線公司感興趣的另外一家有線電視公司——約翰?馬龍的自由傳媒集團(tuán)(Liberty Media),市盈率則高達(dá)32倍。衛(wèi)星與有線電視提供商Dish Corp的市盈率更是達(dá)到了36倍。所以,華爾街明顯更看好發(fā)行業(yè)務(wù)。

????世界上沒有放之四海而皆準(zhǔn)的模式,但康卡斯特與時(shí)代華納的交易表明,搖擺不定的大型傳媒公司可能將重新選擇基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,而不是內(nèi)容。與往常一樣,華爾街對(duì)這種轉(zhuǎn)變產(chǎn)生了重要影響。

????盡管如此,這筆交易中也涉及到部分與內(nèi)容有關(guān)的方面。一家單純的有線電視公司將面臨被內(nèi)容供應(yīng)商“綁架”的難題。所以,羅伯茨最初對(duì)NBC環(huán)球感興趣的原因或許并不是為了謀求改變,而是為了保護(hù)康卡斯特。

????時(shí)代華納有線擁有極少的內(nèi)容,一直在與內(nèi)容供應(yīng)商爭(zhēng)執(zhí)不休,結(jié)果引發(fā)了激烈的談判,同時(shí)還導(dǎo)致許多頻道停播?;蛟S,這次并購(gòu)意味著,時(shí)代華納有線已經(jīng)意識(shí)到,沒有內(nèi)容就獨(dú)木難支。反正,不管怎樣,它單槍匹馬闖江湖的日子也不多了。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????

????The company generates 63% of its revenue from its cable communications, which includes sales of both television and broadband access. The Time Warner Cable (TWC) deal will tip the mix of business at Comcast even further over to the distribution business and away from content. The combined company will get 72% of its sales from delivery.

????This is the opposite direction in which many of Roberts' rivals are going. The starkest example is Jeff Bewkes at Time Warner. Bewkes decided to get out of the cable business two years ago, spinning out Time Warner Cable. Now Roberts is picking up what Bewkes cast aside.

????But pretty much everywhere it seems, King Content has become the conventional wisdom. And it's not just in the cable business but also online and even in wireless. Many people say the simplicity and depth of iTunes and Apple's app store are what really sells iPhones.

????But here's the thing: While corporate executives and Silicon Valley startups have been talking up content, Wall Street never really seems to have bought the story. Time Warner Cable, even before the deal pushed up its shares, had a price-to-earnings multiple of around 20. Time Warner, the movie and television business (and magazines for now), has a P/E of 17. Comcast also has a P/E of 21. Disney also gets a higher multiple of earnings of 21. But John Malone's Liberty Media (LMCA), another cable company that was also interested in Time Warner Cable, gets a P/E of 32. And Dish Corp. (DISH), the satellite cable provider, gets a P/E of 36. So clearly Wall Street thinks distribution remains the better business.

????There won't be a one-model-fits-all, but the Comcast-Time Warner deal suggests that the pendulum of big media may be swinging back to infrastructure and not what flows through the pipes. And like always, Wall Street could be influencing that shift.

????That being said there is a content angle to the deal. Part of the problem of being a pure cable play is that you are hostage to the content providers. So the real reason Roberts might have been interested in NBCU in the first place was not to transform his company but just to protect it.

????Time Warner Cable, which has very little content, has continually found itself in fights over content that have resulted intense negotiations and a number of channel blackouts. The merger could be a realization that Time Warner Cable could no longer go it alone with no content. Either way, Time Warner Cable won't be alone for very much longer.

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