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聰明人這樣投資科技股:不要看當(dāng)前業(yè)績(jī),看潛力

聰明人這樣投資科技股:不要看當(dāng)前業(yè)績(jī),看潛力

Christopher Lochhead/Dave Peterson/Al Ramadan 2014年04月15日
這些人不會(huì)看公司的當(dāng)前業(yè)績(jī),而是關(guān)注它們主導(dǎo)新市場(chǎng)的潛力。投資科技股,做出決策的關(guān)鍵在于了解投資對(duì)象所在新興領(lǐng)域的潛力,投資對(duì)象能否成為這個(gè)領(lǐng)域的王者,以及它在這個(gè)領(lǐng)域制定規(guī)則、長(zhǎng)期占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位的能力。

????聰明的科技投資者要的是潛力,而不是業(yè)績(jī)。他們鎖定的公司會(huì)用科技開拓出新的市場(chǎng),并在其中占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位;此外,這些新市場(chǎng)還具有極大的增長(zhǎng)潛力。出現(xiàn)這種情況的原因是科技投資精英掌握著兩條別人沒有的思路。第一條是,行將消亡的行業(yè)不會(huì)出現(xiàn)傳奇性公司。第二條是,科技領(lǐng)域贏家通吃,谷歌(Google)、Facebook和客戶關(guān)系管理解決方案供應(yīng)商Salesforce.com這樣主導(dǎo)特定市場(chǎng)的公司經(jīng)常能逐步占據(jù)高達(dá)50%的市場(chǎng)份額。

????大多數(shù)金融信息和分析都包含了大量歷史數(shù)據(jù)——收入、銷售額、未完成訂單、利潤(rùn)率、盈利等。這種依托于數(shù)據(jù)表格的歷史數(shù)據(jù)分析通??斩礋o物。

????具有傳奇色彩的投資者著眼的是未來。他們研究的是潛力。把注意力集中在潛力方面要比分析現(xiàn)有格局困難得多。衡量一個(gè)成熟行業(yè)——比如搜索引擎廣告——的市場(chǎng)相對(duì)容易;而預(yù)測(cè)一個(gè)新興行業(yè)——比如“內(nèi)容營(yíng)銷”——?jiǎng)t需要從非傳統(tǒng)角度進(jìn)行考察,同時(shí)在觀念上實(shí)現(xiàn)突破。

????紅杉資本(Sequoia Capital)合伙人吉姆?戈茨說:“要在投資時(shí)做出聰明的選擇,就要知道某個(gè)市場(chǎng)的潛在規(guī)模和重要性。我們尋找的是以使命為導(dǎo)向的創(chuàng)始人。他們既能建立一家偉大的公司,又能開創(chuàng)一個(gè)偉大的領(lǐng)域?!彼_實(shí)了解這一點(diǎn)。戈茨對(duì)免費(fèi)手機(jī)短信工具WhatsApp的早期投資最終變成了一筆享譽(yù)全球的交易,價(jià)值達(dá)到190億美元。Facebook買下的不光是WhatsApp的收入、技術(shù),也不光是它的4.5億活躍用戶。Facebook要的是后者在移動(dòng)短信領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)先位置。這個(gè)新市場(chǎng)具有戰(zhàn)略意義,而且正在飛速增長(zhǎng)。據(jù)報(bào)道,這是風(fēng)投行業(yè)歷史上規(guī)模最大的收購(gòu)。

????所有科技市場(chǎng)都會(huì)逐漸萎縮。要了解成熟公司的增長(zhǎng)前景,首先就要看看它們是否遭到了侵蝕以及侵蝕情況如何。

????計(jì)算機(jī)制造商戴爾(Dell)就面臨著這樣的問題。服務(wù)器、臺(tái)式機(jī)和筆記本電腦的需求增長(zhǎng)都趨于停滯。在云技術(shù)、智能手機(jī)和平板電腦等新市場(chǎng)處于領(lǐng)先位置的公司正在扼殺前者的未來。情形就跟個(gè)人電腦徹底擊敗打字機(jī)如出一轍。這就是戴爾轉(zhuǎn)向軟件和服務(wù)的原因。他們正在設(shè)法獲得新的潛力,因?yàn)樗麄兡壳八诘念I(lǐng)域正在遭到侵蝕。

????通常,各家公司都在現(xiàn)有行業(yè)爭(zhēng)奪市場(chǎng)份額。想想可口可樂(Coca-Cola)和百事可口(Pepsi)、或者8分鐘腹肌訓(xùn)練法和7分鐘腹肌訓(xùn)練法之爭(zhēng)就會(huì)明白這一點(diǎn)。隨著新科技開創(chuàng)出新市場(chǎng),消費(fèi)者口袋里的錢也會(huì)從舊的市場(chǎng)流向新的市場(chǎng)。

????SAP和甲骨文公司(Oracle)這些當(dāng)前行業(yè)主導(dǎo)者都在關(guān)注著這樣的“惡魔”。人力資源軟件開發(fā)商Workday去年的收入增長(zhǎng)了71%以上,Salesforce.com現(xiàn)在的規(guī)模已經(jīng)達(dá)到40億美元,增長(zhǎng)了30%以上,市值為340億美元。此外,為人們提供數(shù)據(jù)備份、同步和共享解決方案的Dropbox、提供在線分享和內(nèi)容管理服務(wù)的Box、采用軟件即服務(wù)模式的軟件服務(wù)商ServiceNow、云軟件開發(fā)商N(yùn)etsuite以及其他許多公司都在不斷地增長(zhǎng)。這些新興企業(yè)都沒有用傳統(tǒng)手段開展競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。它們促使消費(fèi)者的資金從本地軟件轉(zhuǎn)向新型云軟件。這種變化對(duì)本地軟件來說就像斷了氧氣,所有人都會(huì)窒息。

????這種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是科技公司面臨的最大威脅。歷史情況表明,行動(dòng)遲緩會(huì)迅速“殺死”一家公司。要想知道原先的行業(yè)領(lǐng)頭羊能否繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng),訣竅就在于觀察它們?cè)獾降那治g有多嚴(yán)重,以及它們?cè)诎l(fā)掘新的潛力方面有多迅速。

????大型企業(yè)的股價(jià)總是很高,這是因?yàn)闈摿訄?zhí)行就等于溢價(jià)。這也解釋了收入規(guī)模為750億美元的亞馬遜(Amazon)為什么擁有1550億美元的市值,而收入4760億美元的沃爾瑪(Wal-Mart)的市值為2450億美元。難題在于處于行業(yè)主導(dǎo)地位的高增長(zhǎng)公司應(yīng)該具有什么樣的溢價(jià)水平?這個(gè)問題的答案取決于你認(rèn)為某家公司的策略通過本領(lǐng)域的潛力能賺到多少錢。

????特斯拉汽車(Tesla)比福特汽車(Ford Motor)晚誕生了100年。今天,特斯拉汽車的市值達(dá)到了260億美元,而福特汽車的市值為610億美元。你們認(rèn)為電動(dòng)汽車行業(yè)有多大的潛力呢?清潔科技信息網(wǎng)站CleanTechnica董事扎卡里?認(rèn)為,目前這個(gè)行業(yè)的增長(zhǎng)速度為300%。

????富國(guó)證券(Wells Fargo Securities)董事總經(jīng)理詹森?梅納德說:“如果這個(gè)領(lǐng)域夠大,而且其中的王者有足夠的統(tǒng)治力,現(xiàn)在的估值多少基本上都沒有關(guān)系。做出投資決策的關(guān)鍵在于了解這個(gè)領(lǐng)域的潛力,以及這個(gè)王者制定規(guī)則、發(fā)展以及長(zhǎng)久主導(dǎo)的能力?!?/p>

????隨著科技創(chuàng)新速度的加快,新行業(yè)出現(xiàn)的速度也在加快。人們也因此可能更快地賺錢或者賠錢。要想在科技領(lǐng)域賺錢,行業(yè)分析就應(yīng)該像財(cái)務(wù)分析一樣具有戰(zhàn)略地位。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????本文三位作者作為合伙人聯(lián)合創(chuàng)立了咨詢公司Play Bigger Advisors。這家公司設(shè)在舊金山,為科技公司高管在建立市場(chǎng)導(dǎo)向型企業(yè)方面提供培訓(xùn)。

????譯者:Charlie

????Savvy technology investors seek potential, not performance. They identify companies leveraging technology to build and dominate new market sectors that show promise for significant growth. Because elite tech investors know two things that others don't: First, there is no such thing as a legendary company in a dying sector. And second, the technology business is a winner-take-all game, where companies that dominate specific markets in tech, such as Google (GOOG), Facebook (FB) and Salesforce.com (CRM), often gain upwards of 50% market share over time.

????Most financial news and analysis are a blizzard of historical numbers: Revenue, sales, backlog, margins, earnings, etc. This spreadsheet-based, historical analysis is often void of context.

????Legendary investors look to the future. They study the potential. Wrapping your brain around potential is a lot harder than analyzing an existing space. A mature sector like search advertising has a market that is relatively easy to measure. But, making a bet on an emerging space like "content marketing" requires non-traditional examination and a leap of faith.

????"Smart investment choices require understanding the potential size and importance of the market category. We seek mission-driven founders who can build a great company and category at the same time," Sequoia Capital partner Jim Goetz says. He should know. His early investment in WhatsApp turned into the $19 billion transaction heard around the world. Facebook didn't just buy WhatsApp's revenue, technology or its 450 million active users. Facebook wanted WhatsApp's leading position in a strategic, massively growing new market called mobile messaging. The transaction was reported to be the largest acquisition in venture history.

????All technology markets fall off over time. Understanding the growth prospects for mature companies starts with examining how much, if any, erosion they face.

????This is Dell's problem. Server, desktop and laptop demand is stagnating. The companies leading new markets for cloud, smartphone and tablet are neutering their future. The same way the personal computer crushed the typewriter. That's why Dell is pivoting to software and services. They are trying to access new potential because their current categories are eroding.

????Traditionally, companies fight for market share within existing sectors. Think Coke vs. Pepsi or Eight Minute Abs vs. Seven Minute Abs. As new technologies create new markets, customers shift dollars from the old to the new.

????Firms that currently dominate their sectors, such as SAP (SAP) and Oracle (ORCL), are staring at this demon now. Workday grew revenue over 71% last year, Salesforce.com (CRM) is now a $4 billion company, growing at over 30% with a market cap of $34 billion. Additionally, Dropbox, Box, ServiceNow, Netsuite and many more, continue to ascend. These new players are not competing with conventional weapons. They are driving customer spending away from on-premise apps to new cloud apps. As oxygen leaves the space, everyone suffocates.

????This type of risk is the biggest threat technology companies face. As history shows, slow kills companies fast. The trick to understanding if the old leaders can grow again is examining how much erosion they face and how quickly they are pursuing new potential.

????Big players always have outsized stock prices because potential plus execution equals a premium. This explains why Amazon's (AMZN) market cap is $155 billion with $75 billion in revenue, while Wal-Mart (WMT) is worth $245 billion on $476 billion in revenue. The tough question is what premium should high-growth companies that dominate their sectors have? Answering the question lies in what you believe about a given company's strategy to make money off of their category potential.

????Tesla (TSLA) was founded 100 years after the Ford Motor Company (F). Today, Tesla has a market cap of $26 billion vs. Ford at $61 billion. How much potential do you think the electric car space has? According to Zachary Shahan, director of CleanTechnica, it's growing at 300%.

????"If the category is big enough and the category king is dominant enough, current valuation is almost irrelevant. The key to making investment decisions is understanding category potential and the ability of the category king to define, develop and dominate the space over time," says Jason Maynard, managing director at Wells Fargo Securities.

????As technology innovation accelerates so do new sectors. That opens new opportunities to make and lose money more quickly. Sector analysis should be as strategic as financial analysis if you want to make money in tech.

????Christopher Lochhead, Dave Peterson, and Al Ramadan are co-founding partners at Play Bigger Advisors, a San Francisco-based firm that coaches technology executives to build market-leading companies.

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