????去年，在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)帶動(dòng)下，亞洲消費(fèi)電子產(chǎn)品銷售額在歷史上首次超過了北美。中國(guó)電子消費(fèi)產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)的高增長(zhǎng)對(duì)行業(yè)觀察人士和人口學(xué)家來說并不意外，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)人口超過100萬的城市目前已經(jīng)有160多座；而在美國(guó)，這樣的城市只有9座。

????今年，中國(guó)GDP預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)7.4%，增幅高于美國(guó)。雖然有這樣的增長(zhǎng)率，但美國(guó)消費(fèi)電子產(chǎn)品協(xié)會(huì)（CEA）預(yù)計(jì)，來自全世界的消費(fèi)電子產(chǎn)品今年在亞洲的銷售額將下跌1%。

????這樣的跌幅和今年全球市場(chǎng)的前景并無二致——今年，全球科技產(chǎn)品銷售額預(yù)計(jì)將從去年的1.068萬億美元降至1.055萬億美元（原因何在？一個(gè)巨大的不利因素是價(jià)格壓力：科技產(chǎn)品價(jià)格的下降速度有超過需求增速的傾向。）不過，指望中國(guó)這樣的高增長(zhǎng)市場(chǎng)逆全球形勢(shì)而動(dòng)也不能說是不合理的期待。

????全球經(jīng)濟(jì)趨勢(shì)不明朗，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在這個(gè)背景下也放慢了發(fā)展腳步。這種情況引發(fā)了一連串的多米諾效應(yīng)。首先，消費(fèi)信心減弱；隨后，在人們眼中不屬于日常用品的產(chǎn)品出現(xiàn)了銷售額下降。另外，中國(guó)政府于2013年5月停止對(duì)消費(fèi)電子產(chǎn)品提供補(bǔ)貼（多年來，中國(guó)消費(fèi)電子產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)一直靠政府補(bǔ)貼來提振農(nóng)村和非一線地區(qū)的需求），中國(guó)對(duì)消費(fèi)電子產(chǎn)品的需求開始減弱。

????CEA首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家肖恩?杜博拉瓦克說：“我們見到過這樣的情況，中國(guó)消費(fèi)者由于可以享受補(bǔ)貼而購(gòu)買電子產(chǎn)品。存在便利時(shí)人們才會(huì)消費(fèi)，而補(bǔ)貼占這些便利的很大一部分。中國(guó)消費(fèi)者購(gòu)買的產(chǎn)品包括大屏幕電視，就像二戰(zhàn)后的美國(guó)，成為日子越過越好的中產(chǎn)階層的標(biāo)志就是擁有收音機(jī)，后來變成了擁有電視機(jī)。世界上所有國(guó)家的情況都是這樣，無論是在非洲，在東南亞，還是在中國(guó)?！?/p>

????但杜博拉瓦克認(rèn)為，政府補(bǔ)貼的終止并不代表著中國(guó)的中產(chǎn)階層人數(shù)將停止增長(zhǎng)，“補(bǔ)貼起到了一定作用，但不是決定性作用?！?/p>

????For the first time ever, sales of consumer electronics last year in Asia, led by China, exceeded sales in North America. To industry observers and demographers alike, the rapid growth of the Chinese market for consumer electronics comes as no surprise: There are now more than 160 cities in China with a population of more than 1 million people. In the United States, there are just nine.

????This year, China's gross domestic product is also expected to rise, to 7.4%, and it is rising faster than that of the United States. Despite this growth, the sale of worldwide consumer electronics in Asia is predicted to drop 1% this year, according to the Consumer Electronics Association.

????The dip isn't out of line with the global outlook for the year: Worldwide tech sales are expected to fall to $1.055 trillion this year, down from $1.068 trillion last year. (Why? For one thing, the tremendous undertow that is price pressure: The prices for technology-related products tend to fall faster than demand rises.) Still, for a rapidly growing market, it is not unreasonable to expect China to buck the global trend.

????Amid uncertain global economic trends, the Chinese economy slowed down. That led to a series of falling dominoes: first, a decline in consumer confidence, then, a drop in sales of products that are not considered to be daily necessities. Add the May 2013 cessation of government subsidies for consumer electronic products in China -- for several years, the country's consumer electronics market relied on them to help stimulate demand in rural and lower-class areas -- and the country's demand for consumer electronics began to flag.

????"We had seen stories where people in China were buying electronics because the subsidies were in place," said Shawn DuBravac, chief economist for the CEA. "People buy products when they have the means, and the subsidies were a big part of this. The products that the Chinese were buying included large-screen TVs -- it was like in the United States after World War II, when having a radio and later a TV was a sign of a rising middle class. This is true of all countries around the world, whether it is in Africa, southeast Asia, or China."

????Though the subsidies from Beijing have ended, it won't mean an end to China's growing middle class, DuBravac said. "Subsidies have played a role," he told Fortune, "but they are not the defining role."