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別擔(dān)心,中國科技產(chǎn)品消費(fèi)放緩只是暫時的

別擔(dān)心,中國科技產(chǎn)品消費(fèi)放緩只是暫時的

Peter Suciu 2014年04月18日
隨著政府停止補(bǔ)貼,中國消費(fèi)電子產(chǎn)品市場出現(xiàn)了滑坡。但它不會長時間停滯不前。目前的放緩主要是政府停止提供補(bǔ)貼以及智能手機(jī)普及帶來的暫時性沖擊。從長遠(yuǎn)看,中國市場的科技產(chǎn)品消費(fèi)依然擁有巨大潛力,預(yù)計最快2015年就會實(shí)現(xiàn)反彈。

????中國政府停止提供補(bǔ)貼的原因是,中國已經(jīng)不再需要依靠政府來促進(jìn)增長。他們表示,中國消費(fèi)者的可支配收入水平已經(jīng)上升,隨著消費(fèi)者越發(fā)傾向于換掉老舊電器,部分產(chǎn)品的更新?lián)Q代周期將縮短。

????截至目前,中國消費(fèi)電子產(chǎn)品銷售額的增長動力一直來自城鎮(zhèn)市場。但研究者指出,隨著中國城鄉(xiāng)收入差距縮小,規(guī)模較小的農(nóng)村消費(fèi)群體已經(jīng)呈現(xiàn)出增長態(tài)勢。

????市場研究機(jī)構(gòu)NetPop Research分析師喬希?克蘭德爾說:“中國消費(fèi)市場的年齡結(jié)構(gòu)屬于年輕型,而且經(jīng)過了教育,中國消費(fèi)者都急于跟上最新潮流。為此,他們會不停地查看微博上的消息和人人網(wǎng)上的最新內(nèi)容,同時收看電視新聞和信息頻道。他們想讓自己用的東西和時尚同步。政府補(bǔ)貼減少體現(xiàn)了目前市場的活力。雖然短期收入可能減少,但對那些將產(chǎn)品銷往這個全球最大市場的消費(fèi)電子產(chǎn)品制造商來說,長期前景非常好?!?/p>

????消費(fèi)電子產(chǎn)品增長放緩的另一個原因是對智能手機(jī)的需求上升?,F(xiàn)在,中國消費(fèi)者都用智能手機(jī)來拍照、錄像、聽音樂,從而對專門的攝影器材和便攜媒體播放器的銷售產(chǎn)生了威脅??萍夹袠I(yè)研究分析機(jī)構(gòu)IHS Technology預(yù)計,到2017年,中國數(shù)碼相機(jī)發(fā)貨量將比2009年減少75%,個人媒體播放器同期發(fā)貨量的降幅更是高達(dá)92%,這種情況和世界上其他地區(qū)出現(xiàn)的趨勢一致。

????杜博拉瓦克說:“全球智能手機(jī)市場約有11億消費(fèi)者,其中中國就占了4億。目前的增長來自中國本土制造商,在蘋果公司(Apple)和三星(Samsung)主導(dǎo)全球市場的情況下,這種現(xiàn)象格外引人矚目。在大多數(shù)消費(fèi)電子產(chǎn)品領(lǐng)域都能看到這樣的局面,那就是50%以上的銷售額都來自中國公司。中國制造商并沒有占據(jù)絕大多數(shù)市場,但它們的銷售表現(xiàn)確實(shí)非常、非常強(qiáng)勁?!?/p>

????中國電子消費(fèi)產(chǎn)品銷售額最快有望在2015年出現(xiàn)反彈,甚至是在發(fā)貨量仍小幅下降的情況下。同時,尋求增長的中國電子消費(fèi)產(chǎn)品制造商可能會把目光投向海外市場。

????IHS Technology分析師Horse Liu認(rèn)為:“由于中國國內(nèi)、北美和歐洲市場的增長率下降,甚至出現(xiàn)了負(fù)增長,中國企業(yè)將繼續(xù)開拓新的市場?!?/p>

????此外,由于促進(jìn)增長的補(bǔ)貼已經(jīng)消失,這些企業(yè)的關(guān)注重點(diǎn)預(yù)計將從發(fā)貨量轉(zhuǎn)向別處。它們已經(jīng)把更多精力投入到利潤率更高的高端產(chǎn)品上,以便提高銷售收入。

????Horse說:“中國一線消費(fèi)電子廠商將更加重視利潤率。”(財富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:Charlie

????Officials ended the subsidies because they believe they are no longer needed to drive growth. Disposable income levels in China have increased, they argue, and the replacement cycle for some products will shorten as consumers increasingly opt to upgrade their aging electronics.

????Until now, China's urban markets have driven the country's growth in consumer electronics sales. But researchers say that the relatively small consumer base in the countryside is poised for growth as the income gap between urban and rural Chinese narrows.

????"China's consumer market is young and educated, and Chinese consumers are keen on staying on top of the latest trends," said Josh Crandall, an analyst at NetPop Research. "To do this, they are constantly checking Weibo feeds, Renren updates, as well as tuning into news and information on television. They need their devices to stay in the game. Lowering governmental subsidies is a reflection of the market's current strength. While there may be short-term revenue shortfalls, the long view is strong for consumer electronics companies that serve the world's largest market."

????Another reason for the consumer electronics slowdown: increased demand for smartphones, which Chinese consumers are now using to take photos, record video clips, and listen to music, threatening sales of dedicated imaging devices and portable media players. IHS Technology forecasts that shipments of digital still cameras in China by 2017 will have lost 75% of their volume compared to 2009, while personal media players during the same period will be down a debilitating 92%, mirroring trends seen in other areas of the world.

????"Globally the smartphone market is about 1.1 billion people," DuBravac said. "Of that, 400 million is just China. The growth now is coming from domestic manufacturers, which is notable in a market that is worldwide dominated by Apple and Samsung. This is also true with most CE products, where more than 50% of sales are from Chinese makers. It is not a super-majority, but domestic sales are still very, very strong."

????Consumer electronics sales in China could rebound as early as 2015, even if unit shipments continue to decline slightly. In the meantime, Chinese consumer electronics manufacturers may look to new markets outside of their home country for growth.

????"China's makers will continue to develop new markets due to lower or negative growth ratio in domestic, North American and European markets," said Horse Liu, an analyst at IHS Technology.

????Further, manufacturers are expected to turn their focus away from shipments now that the growth-stoking subsidies have disappeared. Already, they are putting more energy into high-end products with larger margins to push sales revenue.

????"China's leading CE makers will pay more attention to profit margin," Horse said.

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