????冒著讓大家覺得我已經(jīng)老了的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，我要說的是，以前我也見過這種局面。以前的科技泡沫時(shí)期，也有一些叱咤一時(shí)的科技媒體，比如Upside和《紅鯡魚》雜志（Red Herring，像今天的一些新媒體一樣，這兩家媒體背后也都有知名風(fēng)投的資助），以及CNET新聞、《行業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)》（The Industry Standard）等，另外《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》和《泰晤士報(bào)》（Times）也大量出爐科技類報(bào)道，當(dāng)然還有走下坡路的《圣荷塞信使報(bào)》。

????但是事實(shí)上，本文的大多數(shù)讀者可能從來沒聽說過其中一部分媒體的名字，充分說明了他們的結(jié)局。另外，我在上文列出的部分媒體，可能也熬不過這一次的泡沫。當(dāng)然，也有一些能繼續(xù)活下去。泡沫就是這樣的。

????另外，從我收件箱里的各種飯局、酒局和社交活動(dòng)的邀請(qǐng)中也能看出泡沫的跡象。就在這個(gè)禮拜，我女兒學(xué)校的家長(zhǎng)與老師聯(lián)誼會(huì)將在舊金山舉辦一場(chǎng)高規(guī)格的資金籌集會(huì)，但它希望吸引的人遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不止是這個(gè)學(xué)校的家長(zhǎng)圈子。光是我個(gè)人就聽說當(dāng)晚舊金山的其他地方將有不少于四場(chǎng)重大聚會(huì)，其中還不包括直奔主題的商業(yè)活動(dòng)。我每個(gè)禮拜至少有四天晚上都能輕松吃上飯局，舉辦方都是想為客戶做宣傳的公關(guān)公司。更何況我受邀的次數(shù)還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)比不上我那些更年輕、更愿意接受邀請(qǐng)的同事們。

????這種情況也不新鮮了。上一次泡沫中——當(dāng)時(shí)我還年輕，而且除了工作之外也沒有那么多責(zé)任——我當(dāng)時(shí)基本上都不再參加與科技行業(yè)有關(guān)的飯局了，因?yàn)樗鼈兌际且粋€(gè)樣。主題是一個(gè)樣，人是同一撥人，餐廳呢？也是同一家餐廳。

????科技泡沫破裂后，這類邀請(qǐng)大幅減少。真是讓人送了口氣。

????最后我要給大家一個(gè)警告，以及一個(gè)我們學(xué)到的教訓(xùn)。

????警告是：我不知道這場(chǎng)“搶椅子”的游戲什么時(shí)候結(jié)束，誰最后會(huì)搶不到椅子坐，我只知道它一定會(huì)結(jié)束。

????我要說的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，則是我這次將以不同的方法應(yīng)對(duì)這個(gè)泡沫。上次泡沫的過程中，那個(gè)泡沫從膨脹到破裂的過程讓我身心疲憊——首先是令人頭暈眼花地增長(zhǎng)膨脹，然后是千篇一律地虛假繁榮，最后是令人失望地崩潰——我甚至很難再為科技行業(yè)的事而感到興奮了。有一段時(shí)間里，我甚至無視了一些真正搞科技的比較“酷”的公司。比如我在科技行業(yè)陷入低谷的時(shí)候訪問了谷歌，當(dāng)時(shí)雖然谷歌的樂觀精神讓我感到興奮，但它的業(yè)務(wù)模式卻沒給我留下什么印象。

????這一次，我打算睜大眼睛，仔細(xì)觀察那些肯定能熬過這個(gè)奇怪的時(shí)期的有趣的公司和企業(yè)家們。因?yàn)榭萍寂菽驮谖覀兩磉叀椅彝耆嘈潘鼤?huì)破裂。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：樸成奎

????At the risk of sounding old, I've seen this before, too. Back in the good old days, there wereUpside and Red Herring magazines (each notable, like some of today's new outlets, for being backed by some of the venture capitalists they covered), as well as CNET News, The Industry Standard and robust coverage in the Journal, Times, and -- bless its diminished soul -- theMercury News.

????The fact that most people reading this post won't have ever heard of some of these publications should sufficiently explain how it all turned out for them. And some of the news organizations that I listed above that are in existence today won't survive the demise of the current bubble. Some will, of course. That's how bubbles work.

????I can also gauge the tech bubble by the flow of dinner, drinks, and other social invitations in my inbox. The PTA at my daughter's school is hosting a really neat fundraiser this week in San Francisco, the kind of event that appeals to an audience far beyond our school community. I personally know of no fewer than four other significant functions happening that night elsewhere in San Francisco, and that's not counting straight-ahead business functions. I could easily dine out four nights a week on the dime of some public relations firm that is hosting a dinner in an attempt to drum up publicity for its client. And I'm not invited to nearly the number of swanky gatherings that my younger, more receptive colleagues are.

????This isn't new, either. During the last bubble -- when I was younger and had fewer responsibilities outside of work -- I pretty much stopped going to tech-related dinners because they were all the same. The stories were the same. The people were the same. The restaurants? The same.

????After the bubble popped, the invitations slowed down dramatically. It was a relief.

????I'll conclude with one caveat and one lesson learned.

????The caveat is that I have no idea when this game of musical chairs will end and who will be left standing. I just know that it will end.

????The lesson involves how I intend to behave differently this time around. Before, I was so exhausted from the trajectory of it all -- first the giddy run-up, then the monotonous exuberance, and finally the depressing collapse -- that I had a hard time getting excited about the technology business for a while. For a short period of time, it blinded me to legitimately cool companies that were still grinding away on interesting businesses. I remember visiting Google (GOOG), for example, during the depths of the tech downturn and being simultaneously excited by its optimism and unimpressed with its business model. (Oops.)

????This time around, I plan to keep my eyes open for the interesting companies and entrepreneurs that are sure to survive this strange period. Because the tech bubble is upon us -- and I fully expect it to burst.