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從大數(shù)據(jù)看“檸檬危機”

從大數(shù)據(jù)看“檸檬危機”

Courtney Subramanian 2014年05月20日
檸檬價格連創(chuàng)新高,令美國人高呼“檸檬危機”來了,但通過大數(shù)據(jù)分析歷年檸檬的價格表明,檸檬定價受季節(jié)性因素影響較大,春季歷來是價格高點,但隨著產(chǎn)量在夏季回升,檸檬的價格不久便會下降,現(xiàn)在這種勢頭已經(jīng)開始了,“危機”即將解除。

????不過芝加哥的餐飲酒吧老板馬克?多米特羅維奇表示,目前他要買一箱檸檬仍需花100美元以上的價格。

????多米特羅維奇表示:“顧客不太注意檸檬價格的走高,所以我們并沒有怎么改變我們的備餐流程。我們對檸檬片的大小做了一些變化,不過我們只想自己把成本化解掉,而不是費力氣向顧客去解釋?!?/p>

????在芝加哥餐飲業(yè)從業(yè)多年的本?席勒表示,他發(fā)現(xiàn)他的“伯克郡小屋”(Berkshire Room)餐廳買到的一些檸檬的質量大不如前了,不光尺寸小了,而且果汁含量也變低了。但是檸檬的價格仍在波動。不過他認為這只是一時的困難,而不是一場長期危機。

????USDA《市場新聞》的一位匿名專家(因其未經(jīng)該局官方授權代表該局表態(tài))指出,目前許多像席勒這樣的餐飲業(yè)主對這場“檸檬危機”反應冷靜,只訂購必要數(shù)量的檸檬。

????雖然檸檬是制作鱷梨色拉醬和瑪格麗塔酒時不可缺少的原料之一,但食品和飲料行業(yè)還是創(chuàng)造性地使用菠蘿和葡萄柚等水果當作檸檬的替代品,同時耐心等待這場檸檬危機過去。這種做法使得市場對檸檬的需求出現(xiàn)了顯著的下降——盡管許多媒體還在不厭其煩地炒作“檸檬危機”。

????這位USDA的專家還表示,換句話說,目前市場的情況和兩周以前已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了根本的改觀。越來越多的檸檬正從邊境輸入美國,而且價格每天都在下降。

????一般來說,檸檬在夏天旺季的價格一般都在每箱6到7美元之間。有市場專家表示,自上周三起,他們發(fā)現(xiàn)有些地方的檸檬價格已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了“檸檬危機”以來的最低價。雖然五月五日節(jié)的到來可能將推高檸檬的訂單,但節(jié)后需求又將震蕩下降。加上買家們已經(jīng)厭倦了付高價,這可能意味著我們要比預想的提前跟檸檬危機說拜拜了。

????但是,檸檬價格會回落到去年的每箱15到20美元的價格嗎?專家們還不確定在這次危機后,檸檬市場將呈現(xiàn)什么樣的態(tài)勢。但是檸檬并不是美國消費者唯一應該擔心的農(nóng)作物。

????據(jù)USDA《市場新聞》報道,美國所有水果和蔬菜的價格預計將上漲3.5到4.5%。今年2月,《今日美國》(USA Today )稱牛肉的零售價已升至1987年以來的最高點,同時豬肉價格上漲了6.8%,家禽價格也比去年同期上漲了4.7%。

????與此同時,巴西的持續(xù)干旱已經(jīng)導致阿拉伯咖啡的產(chǎn)量降低、價格升高,這種咖啡豆經(jīng)常用在各種美食飲料里。另據(jù)《華爾街日報》(Wall Street Journal )報道,隨著全球需求上漲,咖啡價格自今年一月起已經(jīng)翻了一番。

????由于農(nóng)業(yè)持續(xù)遭受極端天氣的打擊,現(xiàn)在還不能確定“正?!眱r格會是什么樣。但不論如何,今年夏天,檸檬將或多或少回歸正常價格,正好來得及讓你調一杯冰涼解暑的米切拉達酒。(財富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:樸成奎

????But Chicago restaurant and bar owner Mark Domitrovich says he's still paying more than $100 per case at the moment.

????"The customer is a bit oblivious to the price hike so we haven't changed our procedures too much," the owner of Frontier, Lottie's Pub, and The Pony says. "We've made modifications to the size of the limes but we tend to just absorb the cost rather than trying to explain it to the customers."

????Chicago restaurant veteran Ben Schiller says he's seen poorer quality in some of the limes at his restaurant The Berkshire Room, including limes that are smaller in size and lower juice content. But pricing continues to fluctuate, and he sees it more as a temporary blip than a long-term crisis.

????Schiller is one of many buyers taking the crisis in stride, holding out and only ordering as much as needed, according to a USDA Market News specialist who was granted anonymity because she was not authorized to speak publicly on behalf of her organization.

????As much as we find limes irreplaceable -- sorry, lemons -- for items such as guacamole and the margarita, the food and beverage industry is getting creative with substitutes like pineapple and grapefruit until price hysteria subsides. Those actions have led to a significant decrease in demand, despite the headlines.

????In other words, the story has completely changed from two weeks ago, the USDA market specialist tells Fortune. More shipments are crossing the border, and prices continue to drop each day, she says.

????Typically lime prices in the summertime, the heaviest season, tend to be around $6 to $7 per crate. As of Wednesday, market experts say they've seen some of the lowest prices on limes since the price disruption began. Though Cinco de Mayo calls for an uptick in orders, demand is likely to waver after the holiday. But coupled with buyers tired of paying high prices means we may get to say farewell to lime austerity sooner than we thought.

????But will prices return to last year's $15 to $20 per crate? Experts remain uncertain what normal will be following the hit the lime market has taken. But limes are not the only crop American consumers should worry about.

????Prices for all fruits and vegetables are expected to rise between 3.5 and 4.5 %, according to a recent USDA Market News report. In February, USA Today reported the highest average retail cost for beef on record since 1987, while pork was up 6.8% and poultry shot up 4.7% over the last year.

????Meanwhile, droughts in Brazil have resulted in higher prices and lower production of Arabica coffee, the popular bean used in gourmet blends. Coffee prices have more than doubled since January as global demand grows, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

????As the agriculture business continues to reel from severe weather, "normal" prices have yet to be determined. Nonetheless, you can expect to see the citrus staple reappear -- at (somewhat) normal prices -- this summer, just in time for an ice-cold Michelada.

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