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谷歌無(wú)人駕駛汽車會(huì)不會(huì)顛覆傳統(tǒng)汽車制造業(yè)格局

谷歌無(wú)人駕駛汽車會(huì)不會(huì)顛覆傳統(tǒng)汽車制造業(yè)格局

Doron Levin 2014年06月03日
盡管數(shù)碼技術(shù)正在迅猛發(fā)展,但汽車生產(chǎn)商并不愿意將對(duì)汽車“大腦”的控制權(quán)拱手讓人。不過(guò),谷歌研發(fā)的無(wú)人駕駛汽車已經(jīng)具備了這樣的潛力。

????谷歌(Google)宣布,公司正在研發(fā)一款沒(méi)有方向盤、剎車和油門的原型車,并稱這款車將于一年之內(nèi)發(fā)布,此舉使得無(wú)人駕駛汽車的商業(yè)化進(jìn)程又向前邁進(jìn)了一大步。

????這家公司打算證明,讓乘客安全地通過(guò)無(wú)人駕駛汽車抵達(dá)目的地是可以實(shí)現(xiàn)的——盡管速度不會(huì)超過(guò)每小時(shí)25英里(約合每小時(shí)40.2公里)。汽車行駛期間,乘客只需要確定目的地,不需要做其他任何事情。

????項(xiàng)目主管克里斯?厄姆森認(rèn)為,無(wú)人駕駛技術(shù)通過(guò)降低車禍率,減少因此導(dǎo)致的傷亡事件,從而有可能“減輕痛苦,產(chǎn)生廣泛的社會(huì)影響力”。厄姆森引用數(shù)據(jù)稱,美國(guó)每年都會(huì)發(fā)生大約3.2萬(wàn)起車禍,而每年全世界會(huì)發(fā)生120萬(wàn)起。他在本周三的電話新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上表示,研發(fā)這項(xiàng)技術(shù)的另一個(gè)動(dòng)機(jī)是讓老年人和殘疾人也擁有行動(dòng)能力。

????汽車業(yè)的高管已經(jīng)開(kāi)始推測(cè)谷歌在無(wú)人駕駛技術(shù)上的商業(yè)策略。谷歌從2009年起開(kāi)始研發(fā)這項(xiàng)技術(shù),并在豐田(Toyota)和雷克薩斯(Lexus)的專用車型上進(jìn)行了論證。盡管谷歌揚(yáng)名立萬(wàn)主要是靠它的網(wǎng)絡(luò)搜索和廣告服務(wù),但這家公司的研究人員已經(jīng)與全球的汽車生產(chǎn)商探討過(guò)無(wú)人駕駛項(xiàng)目,增加了它尋求同盟或合作的可能性。

????有些人對(duì)谷歌是否有能力成為大型汽車生產(chǎn)商提出了質(zhì)疑。不過(guò),特斯拉(Tesla)過(guò)去也沒(méi)有生產(chǎn)汽車的經(jīng)歷,卻迅速地?fù)u身一變成為汽車生產(chǎn)商。

????谷歌原型車的藍(lán)圖像是一輛小型的城市輕便車,而不是傳統(tǒng)的轎車。汽車外部也許會(huì)比較柔軟,以此保護(hù)可能不慎撞上它的行人或騎自行車的人。

????厄姆森并沒(méi)有排除谷歌聯(lián)合其他汽車生產(chǎn)商的可能性。不過(guò)谷歌開(kāi)發(fā)自有汽車的決定可能會(huì)影響、甚至促使汽車業(yè)高管和工程師的思路和規(guī)劃加快步伐。到目前為止,全球的汽車生產(chǎn)商仍著眼于循序漸進(jìn)的步驟,比如自適應(yīng)巡航控制系統(tǒng)、幫助司機(jī)的自動(dòng)制動(dòng)器、在汽車上提供后備系統(tǒng)等等。他們還沒(méi)有考慮徹底讓汽車自己控制自己。

????主流的汽車生產(chǎn)商通常會(huì)采用高科技傳感器及高科技元素,這些在許多高端汽車上已經(jīng)得以采用,比如“輔助駕駛”功能。少數(shù)汽車公司已經(jīng)開(kāi)始關(guān)注軟件和人工智能領(lǐng)域的飛速發(fā)展,利用它們或許可以讓汽車比在人類的操控下更安全地行進(jìn)。這些公司已經(jīng)提出了研發(fā)無(wú)人駕駛汽車的計(jì)劃。法國(guó)雷諾(Renault)和日本日產(chǎn)(Nissan)的首席執(zhí)行官卡洛斯?戈恩已經(jīng)確立目標(biāo):在2020年推出一款無(wú)人駕駛汽車。沃爾沃(Volvo)也向記者展示了一款不需要司機(jī),可以自動(dòng)泊車的產(chǎn)品。這家公司表示,這款汽車將于2017年上市。

????我們可以理解,盡管數(shù)碼技術(shù)正在迅猛發(fā)展,但汽車生產(chǎn)商并不愿意將他們對(duì)汽車“大腦”的控制權(quán)拱手讓給谷歌或其他第三方。最有遠(yuǎn)見(jiàn)的思想家已經(jīng)開(kāi)始設(shè)想將汽車作為電子商務(wù)的平臺(tái),駕駛員可以在光臨沃爾瑪(Wal-Mart)或麥當(dāng)勞(McDonald)時(shí)得到折扣或其他優(yōu)惠。如果谷歌的思路沒(méi)錯(cuò),那么汽車以后便不必時(shí)刻搭載車主,也可以根據(jù)需要空駛、搭載旅客或運(yùn)送貨物。

????對(duì)許多人來(lái)說(shuō),乘坐自動(dòng)駕駛的汽車出行就算不嚇人,也似乎是不現(xiàn)實(shí)的事情。但是谷歌已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)了幾十萬(wàn)英里的駕駛測(cè)試,而且沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)事故。其他公司也一樣。汽車業(yè),尤其是其中的新秀,正在證明高科技汽車將會(huì)擁有曾經(jīng)只在科幻小說(shuō)中描繪過(guò)的能力。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:嚴(yán)匡正

????Google pushed the commercialization of self-driving cars a giant step forward by announcing it is building a prototype vehicle – without steering wheel, brakes, or an accelerator – and will demonstrate it within a year.

????The company aims to prove that the means are within reach to allow passengers to travel safely to their destination in a self-driving vehicle – albeit at a speed not exceeding 25 miles per hour. Occupants will have no other role in the vehicle's operation beyond stating their destination.

????Chris Urmson, director of the project, hailed driverless technology's potential "to alleviate pain and to have a broad societal impact" by reducing the number of accidents, deaths, and injuries from accidents. He cited the roughly 32,000 automotive fatalities annually in the U.S. and 1.2 million worldwide. Another motivation for developing the technology, he said, during a phone press conference Wednesday morning, was to provide mobility to the elderly and disabled.

????Auto industry executives have speculated about Google's business strategy for self-driving technology, which it has been developing since 2009 and demonstrating on specially adapted Toyota (TM) and Lexus vehicles. Though known mostly for Internet search and advertising, Google researchers have discussed the project with global automakers, raising the possibility that it was shooting for an alliance or collaboration.

????Some have questioned Google's (GOOG) ability to mass manufacturer vehicles. Then again, Tesla (TSLA) had no history of building cars and it turned itself into a manufacturer in short order.

????The drawing of Google's prototype suggests a small urban runabout that looks nothing like a conventional car. The exterior will be soft, to protect pedestrians or bicyclists that might bump into it.

????Urmson didn't rule out that Google might join forces with another automaker. Yet the company's decision to create its own vehicle could influence, affect, and perhaps accelerate the thinking and plans of auto industry executives and engineers. Until now, global automakers have thought in terms of incremental steps, such as adaptive cruise control and automatic braking that aid drivers and provide backup systems, without assuming complete control.

????Mainstream automakers often refer to high-tech sensors and features, already available on many premium models, as providing "co-piloting." A few auto companies have kept an eye on the rapid development of software and artificial intelligence that arguably can drive a car more safely than a human and have announced plans to offer a driverless car. Carlos Ghosn, chief executive officer of Renault and Nissan, has targeted 2020 for introduction of a driverless model. Volvo has demonstrated a car that can self-park, without a driver, to journalists; it will be available in 2017, the company says.

????As digital technology proliferates, automakers are understandably reluctant to relinquish control of their vehicles' "brains" to Google or any third-party. The most far-sighted thinkers are beginning to imagine the car as a platform for e-commerce, where drivers might receive discounts and other offers as they approach a Wal-Mart (WMT) or a McDonald's (MCD). If Google is right, that motorists no longer need to drive, cars may wind up carrying no occupants at times and could ride empty, picking up travelers or delivering merchandise as needed.

????For many, the thought of traveling in a car that drives itself may seem improbable, if not horrifying. But Google already has logged hundreds of thousands of accident-free test miles. Others have as well. The auto industry, particularly its newest members, is proving that highly advanced vehicles will possess abilities once only described as science fiction.

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