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中俄博弈:天然氣交易大單凸顯主動(dòng)權(quán)向中國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)移

中俄博弈:天然氣交易大單凸顯主動(dòng)權(quán)向中國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)移

Erica Downs 2014年06月25日
中俄天然氣交易已經(jīng)醞釀數(shù)年之久,如今終于達(dá)成協(xié)議。包括這筆交易在內(nèi),中俄近十幾年年來(lái)在能源領(lǐng)域的一系列合作表明,雙方博弈的主動(dòng)權(quán)已經(jīng)逐漸從俄羅斯轉(zhuǎn)移到了中國(guó)手中。

????另外需要注意的一點(diǎn)是,中俄兩國(guó)在這筆交易中并不是處在平等的地位上。過(guò)去十年間,包括此次天然氣供應(yīng)協(xié)議在內(nèi),俄羅斯曾經(jīng)三次在有需要的時(shí)候與中國(guó)達(dá)成數(shù)十億美元的能源交易。2005年,中國(guó)國(guó)家開(kāi)發(fā)銀行(China Development Bank)與中國(guó)進(jìn)出口銀行(Export-Import Bank of China)成為俄羅斯石油公司(Rosneft)的最后貸款人,為這家俄羅斯國(guó)有石油公司提供60億美元以石油為抵押的貸款,幫助它收購(gòu)俄羅斯私有石油公司尤科斯(Yukos)的主要生產(chǎn)資產(chǎn)。

????四年后,中國(guó)國(guó)家開(kāi)發(fā)銀行向俄羅斯石油公司和俄羅斯國(guó)有管道運(yùn)營(yíng)商俄羅斯石油運(yùn)輸公司(Transneft)提供了250億美元以石油為抵押的貸款。當(dāng)時(shí)正值全球金融危機(jī),石油價(jià)格暴跌,信貸緊縮,這兩家俄羅斯公司都陷入困境。這幾筆交易不僅加深了兩國(guó)的能源關(guān)系,同時(shí)也意味著在這種關(guān)系中,主動(dòng)權(quán)正在從俄羅斯向中國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)移。

????不論到底哪一方做出了更多讓步,在國(guó)內(nèi)和國(guó)際舞臺(tái)上,中國(guó)兩國(guó)都把自己描繪成獲勝者。這次的天然氣交易預(yù)示著中俄兩國(guó)的能源關(guān)系開(kāi)始充分發(fā)揮潛力。2013年,俄羅斯是中國(guó)第四大原油供應(yīng)國(guó),未來(lái)將成為它南方鄰邦重要的天然氣進(jìn)口來(lái)源。從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,這份協(xié)議將分別給俄羅斯和中國(guó)帶來(lái)更可靠的供應(yīng)與需求保障。而從短期而言,天然氣協(xié)議的主要好處表現(xiàn)在政治方面。俄羅斯可以獲得中國(guó)這個(gè)強(qiáng)有力的盟友,而中國(guó)也獲得了又一次機(jī)會(huì),彰顯出它在世界舞臺(tái)日益擴(kuò)大的經(jīng)濟(jì)與政治影響力。

????本文作者鄧麗嘉是布魯金斯學(xué)會(huì)約翰?L?桑頓中國(guó)研究中心研究員。她一直致力于研究中國(guó)公司的海外擴(kuò)張、中國(guó)的能源和外交政策以及中國(guó)政府與企業(yè)的關(guān)系,之前曾在美國(guó)中央情報(bào)局擔(dān)任能源分析師。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????It is also important to note that this is not a marriage among equals. The natural gas supply agreement is the third time in the past decade that the Russians have brokered a multi-billion dollar energy deal with the Chinese in a time of need. In 2005, the China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China were lenders of last resort to Rosneft, providing the Russian national oil company with a $6 billion oil-backed loan to help fund the purchase of the main production asset of a private Russian oil company, Yukos.

????Four years later, the China Development Bank extended oil-backed loans worth $25 billion to Rosneft and Transneft, the state-owned pipeline operator, when oil prices collapsed and credit crunch during the global financial crisis left both Russian companies in a world of hurt. These deals have not only deepened bilateral energy relations, but also underscored a shift in power in the relationship away from Russia and toward China.

????Regardless of which country may have conceded more, both countries can present themselves as winners to domestic and international audiences. The gas deal signifies that the China-Russia energy relationship is starting to live up to its full potential. Russia, which was China’s fourth largest crude oil supplier in 2013, is poised to become a major source of natural gas imports for its southern neighbor. This arrangement should provide Russia with greater security of demand and China with greater security of supply in the long-term. In the short-term, the main benefits of the gas agreement are political. Russia can claim a powerful friend in China, and China can point to another indicator of its growing economic and political clout on the world stage.

????Erica Downs is a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings Institution. She focuses on the international expansion of Chinese companies and China’s energy and foreign policies as well as government-business relations in China, and was previously was an energy analyst at the CIA.

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