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iPod之父法德?tīng)栍H口講述Nest誕生記:掘金1000萬(wàn)只恒溫器大市場(chǎng)

iPod之父法德?tīng)栍H口講述Nest誕生記:掘金1000萬(wàn)只恒溫器大市場(chǎng)

Adam Lashinsky 2014年06月26日
Nest聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人托尼?法德?tīng)栐菃滩妓沟闹?,如今又被人們比作拉?佩奇。他發(fā)明新型恒溫器的靈感從何而來(lái)?聽(tīng)聽(tīng)他自己怎么說(shuō)。

????托尼?法德?tīng)栐?jīng)是蘋(píng)果公司(Apple)高管,離職后與人共同創(chuàng)建了Nest【這家公司最近被谷歌(Google)斥資32億美元收購(gòu)】。他因?yàn)閯?chuàng)造性的思維和顛覆性的技術(shù)被人們比作史蒂夫?喬布斯以及拉里?佩奇。

????2014年6月30日出版的《財(cái)富》雜志將刊登一篇關(guān)于法德?tīng)柕奶貙?xiě)。此外,他最近還出席了在加州拉古納尼古爾召開(kāi)的《財(cái)富》綠色頭腦風(fēng)暴大會(huì)(Brainstorm Green Conference)。下面是雜志當(dāng)期報(bào)道中未能收錄的一些法德?tīng)柕南敕ā?/p>

????《財(cái)富》:你創(chuàng)建了Nest,開(kāi)發(fā)了公司的第一款產(chǎn)品——恒溫器。說(shuō)說(shuō)你當(dāng)時(shí)靈光一現(xiàn)的頓悟時(shí)刻吧。

????法德?tīng)枺菏紫?,我?wèn)自己,這個(gè)產(chǎn)品構(gòu)思好不好?我的回答是:“這個(gè)產(chǎn)品構(gòu)思很好,市場(chǎng)上還沒(méi)有類(lèi)似產(chǎn)品。我在網(wǎng)上什么都能查。但市場(chǎng)上就是沒(méi)有類(lèi)似產(chǎn)品。然后我問(wèn):“那這項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)是否具備商業(yè)價(jià)值?我知道我能開(kāi)發(fā)出產(chǎn)品,但這是樁好生意嗎?我接著問(wèn):“這款產(chǎn)品每年的銷(xiāo)量有多大?整個(gè)市場(chǎng)有多大?”

????我研究發(fā)現(xiàn),“哇,光美國(guó)就有25萬(wàn)個(gè)恒溫器?那它的更新率如何?”我發(fā)現(xiàn),光住宅和輕型商用恒溫器每年就要更換1000多萬(wàn)只。我當(dāng)時(shí)想道:“天吶,1000萬(wàn)個(gè)?這比游戲機(jī)要多!比洗衣機(jī)、干衣機(jī)、爐灶和烤箱都要多。這是個(gè)大市場(chǎng)。”我們渴望找到大市場(chǎng),對(duì)吧?那么還有哪些是大市場(chǎng)?自行車(chē)市場(chǎng)的規(guī)模與之相當(dāng)。只不過(guò)人們可能不覺(jué)得這是個(gè)大市場(chǎng)。就好比我們當(dāng)年做iPod時(shí),很多人都說(shuō):“CD播放器市場(chǎng)沒(méi)錢(qián)賺。已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)商品化了。沒(méi)戲了。去干別的吧!”產(chǎn)品銷(xiāo)量停滯,產(chǎn)品價(jià)格連年下降。這種市場(chǎng)往往到了該創(chuàng)新的時(shí)候。

????于是你有了一個(gè)自己喜歡的想法。然后呢?

????然后我調(diào)查了一下競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手,我說(shuō):“我們來(lái)看看誰(shuí)有實(shí)力開(kāi)發(fā)出下一代恒溫器?!蔽已芯苛怂兄饕暮銣仄鲝S商,嘗試尋找正在開(kāi)發(fā)新型恒溫器的初創(chuàng)企業(yè)。我想:“假如這個(gè)領(lǐng)域真的有創(chuàng)新,我肯定能看到?!钡坪鯖](méi)有任何動(dòng)靜。經(jīng)過(guò)更深入的研究,我發(fā)現(xiàn),大約70%的恒溫器都是通過(guò)批發(fā)銷(xiāo)售。因此,它們并不是在面向使用者進(jìn)行設(shè)計(jì)。過(guò)去恒溫器的設(shè)計(jì)只是為了幫助安裝者安裝和銷(xiāo)售盡可能多的產(chǎn)品。換言之,這一切跟消費(fèi)者完全沒(méi)關(guān)系。于是我告訴自己:“這個(gè)市場(chǎng)思維僵化,消費(fèi)者難以真正了解產(chǎn)品。競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手固步自封,不求進(jìn)取。而且,這個(gè)領(lǐng)域沒(méi)有任何創(chuàng)新?!?/p>

????Tony Fadell, a former Apple AAPL -1.03% executive who went on to co-found Nest (which recently sold to Google GOOG 0.26% for $3.2 billion), has been likened to Steve Jobs and Larry Page for his innovative thinking and disruptive technology.

????Following our recent feature story about him in the June 30, 2014 issue of Fortune magazine—as wellhis recent appearance at the Fortune Brainstorm Green conference in Laguna Nigel, Calif.—here are some of his thoughts that didn’t make the magazine story.

????Fortune: Tell me your ‘Aha! moment’ in starting Nest, with its first product being a thermostat.

????Fadell: Well, first, I asked, was there a good product idea? And I thought, “Yeah, there’s a good product idea. Okay, there’s none out there. I can research everything on the web. There’s just nothing there.” So then I said, “Okay. Is it a good business? I know I can make this thing. Is it a good business?” And then I asked, “How many are being sold a year? What’s the total available market?”

????And when I started doing the research, I was like, “Wait a second. There’s a quarter of a million thermostats in the U.S. alone? Well, if there’s that, what’s the replacement rate?” And I looked and it was over 10 million a year for just residential and light commercial thermostats. I was like, “Wait a second. 10 million? That’s more than game machines! That’s more than washers, dryers, stoves, and ovens. That’s a big market.” We’re dying to find big markets, right? So what else is out there? Bicycles are about the same. Now, people might not perceive it as such. It was just like when we were doing the iPod, people were like, “There’s no money in CD players. It’s commoditized. There’s nothing there. Move on!” The number of units is stagnant, and the price drops every year. That’s the kind of market that’s usually ripe for innovation.

????So you had an idea you liked. Then what?

????Then I looked at the competition, and I said, “Let’s look who can do what it takes to make this next-generation thermostat.” I went down all the current incumbents, and tried to look for startups that were doing it. And every time I looked, I was like, “Wait a second. If there was true innovation here, I would be seeing it.” It didn’t seem like there was any activity. And then I looked further and I learned that about 70% of thermostats were sold through wholesale. So they weren’t being designed for people to use. They were being designed for installers to install and sell as many as they possibly could. It had nothing to do about the consumer. And then I said, “Wait a second. There’s a market with an old way of thinking in terms of how the consumer learns about the product. The competition is old and hasn’t moved. And third, there’s no innovation whatsoever.”

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