????人們都說(shuō)，失敗無(wú)主。上次金融危機(jī)也是一樣。

????上周三早間在參加國(guó)際貨幣基金（International Monetary Fund）會(huì)議發(fā)表演講時(shí)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席珍妮特?耶倫宣稱，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在本世紀(jì)最初幾年一直維持低利率政策的行為并不是促成2008年金融危機(jī)的原因。

????“上一次危機(jī)本來(lái)可能通過(guò)2005年前后大幅度收緊貨幣政策而得到阻止或顯著緩解，聽(tīng)到這么講的情況并不少見(jiàn)，”耶倫表示?！暗辽?，這樣的方式原本就不足以解決（美國(guó)當(dāng)時(shí)面臨的）全部弱點(diǎn)。”

????相反，耶倫認(rèn)為，在危機(jī)發(fā)生前提高利率只會(huì)推高失業(yè)率，而不能解決金融系統(tǒng)面臨的核心問(wèn)題，其中包括使用外來(lái)的、人們知之甚少的衍生產(chǎn)品，以及系統(tǒng)重要性大型金融機(jī)構(gòu)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理不善的問(wèn)題。耶倫提到了實(shí)證研究的內(nèi)容，高利率并不是抗擊房地產(chǎn)泡沫的有效工具，除非利率高到導(dǎo)致不可接受的高失業(yè)率。

????相反，耶倫認(rèn)為，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)原本應(yīng)該專注于使用限制短期融資和要求銀行持有高水平資本等監(jiān)管工具，以便抗擊造成威脅的泡沫，同時(shí)確保銀行系統(tǒng)足夠健康，能夠生存下來(lái)。

????市場(chǎng)參與者從中得到的收獲很明確：這個(gè)演講是對(duì)耶倫表示將長(zhǎng)時(shí)間保持低利率承諾的雙重確認(rèn)。盡管詹姆斯?布拉德和查爾斯?普洛瑟等美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員一直公開(kāi)提倡加息，很清楚的一點(diǎn)是，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)這位主席不認(rèn)為有任何理由加息，至少

????在明年年底前是這樣。

????耶倫還明確表示，她認(rèn)為，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)應(yīng)當(dāng)大力監(jiān)管金融系統(tǒng)。但耶倫并沒(méi)有說(shuō)，對(duì)于監(jiān)管范圍之外的金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（即被稱為“影子”銀行系統(tǒng)），美國(guó)央行具體應(yīng)怎么做。當(dāng)被問(wèn)到，如果借助貨幣政策，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)打算如何控制影子銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，耶倫說(shuō)：“它將是個(gè)巨大的挑戰(zhàn)，我現(xiàn)在還沒(méi)有找到好的答案?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????Failure, they say, is an orphan, and the financial crisis is no different.

????In a speech on Wednesday morning at an International Monetary Fund conference, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen argued that the low-interest-rate policy that the Fed maintained throughout the 2000s did not contribute to the financial crisis.

????“It is not uncommon to hear it suggested that the crisis could have been prevented or significantly mitigated by substantially tighter monetary policy in the mid-2000s,” Yellen said. “At the very least, however, such an approach would have been insufficient to address the full range of critical vulnerabilities” facing the country at the time.

????Yellen instead argued that raising rates during the run up to the crisis would have led to higher unemployment without getting to the core issues facing the financial system, which included the use of exotic and poorly understood derivatives and poor risk management on the part of large, systemically important financial institutions. Yellen also referred to a body of empirical studies that have shown that higher interest rates wouldn’t have been an effective tool at fighting the real estate bubble, unless they were raised to such a degree as to cause unacceptable levels of unemployment.

????Yellen argued that, instead, the central bank should have focused on using regulatory tools like limits on short-term funding and requirements for banks to hold higher levels of capital in order to fight dangerous bubbles and to make banks healthy enough to survive.

????The takeaway for market participants is clear: this speech is a doubling down on Yellen’s promise to keep interest rates low for a long time. Despite the fact that Fed officials like James Bullard and Charles Plosserhave been publicly arguing for higher interest rates, it’s clear that the Fed chair doesn’t see any reason to raise rates before the end of next year, at the earliest.

????Yellen also made clear that she believes that the Fed should engage in vigorous regulation of the financial system. But Yellen did not say what exactly should be done about financial risks that fall outside the purview of the central bank, what’s known as the “shadow” banking system. When asked how—if not through monetary policy—the Fed could contain risks in shadow banking, Yellen said, “That is going to be a huge challenge to which I don’t have a great answer.”