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黑莓股價飆升之謎

黑莓股價飆升之謎

JP Mangalindan 2014年07月11日
今年以來,黑莓的股價上漲了約45%。分析人士認為,這主要得歸功于成本的削減。如果它希望重振雄風(fēng),還需要更大膽的行動,比如放棄黑莓手機操作系統(tǒng),甚至還需要考慮拆分。

????黑莓(BlackBerry)確實今不如昔,但根據(jù)今年的股價走勢,這家智能手機制造商看來還沒打算跟世界徹底告別。

????今年初以來,黑莓的股價上漲了近45%,周二收盤時報10.94美元。對任何一只股票而言,這樣的表現(xiàn)都相當出色,更不用說黑莓這樣的公司——在許多人眼中它已經(jīng)無足輕重,而且瀕臨倒閉。數(shù)字領(lǐng)域分析機構(gòu)康姆斯科(comScore)提供的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,黑莓在美國智能手機市場中的份額只有2.3%,而安卓(Android)和蘋果公司(Apple)的份額分別為52.1%和41.9%。

????股價反彈是否意味著黑莓可能東山再起呢?未必。但這家公司的一些動向顯然讓投資者感到興奮。

????科技行業(yè)研究機構(gòu)高德納(Gartner)副總裁肯?杜拉尼說:“他們的主要成就是削減成本?!?月份,黑莓推出了專門針對印尼市場的Z3智能手機。這款5英寸觸屏手機最引人關(guān)注的是低廉的價格,而不是功能——它的售價僅為190美元。這也是黑莓和富士康——iPad、iPhone和Kindle電子書閱讀器的臺灣代工廠商成為合作伙伴后推出的首批產(chǎn)品之一。此前,黑莓曾將手機制造業(yè)務(wù)外包,而這次跟以效率聞名的富士康合作則是為了在收入不斷下降之際提高成本效率。黑莓第一財季收入大幅下跌69%,下降到了9.66億美元。

????杜拉尼解釋說:“投資者并不關(guān)心今后兩年(黑莓)是否會倒閉。如果人們覺得它的情況會在一段時間內(nèi)得到改善,就會對它投資?!?/p>

????除了削減成本,另一個讓人感興趣的問題是,黑莓能否找到賺錢的新途徑。這家公司寄希望于面向新興市場的新產(chǎn)品以及更好的企業(yè)軟件。在新興市場,黑莓手機仍然得到了比較廣泛的應(yīng)用,改進后的企業(yè)軟件也將在今年底之前推出。

????但這些也許還不夠。杜拉尼認為,這家公司應(yīng)該放棄擁有黑莓手機操作系統(tǒng)的嘗試,轉(zhuǎn)而采用更受歡迎的安卓系統(tǒng)。他還提出了一個更大膽的建議:將黑莓拆分開來。這樣,它的某些產(chǎn)品,比如每月仍有8000多萬用戶的短信服務(wù),就更有可能生存下來,而且不需要承受一家大公司在扭轉(zhuǎn)頹勢的過程中所面臨的壓力。

????杜拉尼指出:“如果想保持完整,黑莓的手機銷量就得提高許多許多。”這有可能,但隨著競爭對手不斷降低產(chǎn)品價格,這種可能性正變得越來越渺茫。(財富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:Charlie

????BlackBerry is far from what it used to be, but based on its stock performance this year, the smartphone maker isn’t ready for a burial just yet.

????BlackBerry shares have climbed nearly 45% this year to $10.94 on Tuesday. That’s pretty remarkable performance for any stock, let alone that of a company many shrugged off as irrelevant and nearly defunct. BlackBerry’s U.S. market share among smartphones is an anemic 2.3% versus Android’s 52.1% and Apple’s 41.9%, according to comScore.

????Are rebounding shares one sign of a possible BlackBerry comeback? Not necessarily. Although investors are clearly excited about something happening over at Waterloo.

????“The primary thing they’ve done is cut costs,” says Ken Dulaney, a vice president at Gartner, a tech research firm. In May, BlackBerry began selling the Z3 smartphone exclusively in Indonesia. The 5-inch, touchscreen device is more notable for its affordability – it costs $190 – than features. It was also one of the first products to emerge from a partnership with Foxconn, the Taiwanese manufacturer responsible for churning out iPads, iPhones, and Kindle e-readers. Previously, BlackBerry contracted out its phone manufacturing, but a new partnership with Foxconn – a notoriously efficient business - is intended to be more cost-efficient in the face of declining revenues, which plunged 69% to $966 during BlackBerry’s first quarter.

????“Investors don’t care if it [BlackBerry] goes out of business in the next two years,” explains Dulaney. “If there’s a perception that it’s doing better for a period of time, they can invest in it.”

????Besides slashing costs, Chen has also expressed interest in finding new ways for BlackBerry to make money. It’s banking on new devices for emerging markets where the brand remains more widely-used, as well as better enterprise software that is due out by the end of the year.

????That may not be enough. While Dulaney suggests BlackBerry give up trying to own the software operating system its devices run for the more popular Android he suggests a more radical approach: splitting the company up so products like its messaging service, which still has 80 million-plus users monthly, have a better shot at surviving without the pressures of a larger company in turn-around mode.

????Adds Dulaney: “If BlackBerry wants to stay a single entity, they’ll need to sell millions and millions more devices.” Possible, but more and more unlikely as the competition’s prices continue to drop.

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