????世界杯期間，我們中的許多人都在工作日抽身去看那些令人激動(dòng)的比賽。和許多大大小小的公司一樣，我們公司也用大投影儀通過ESPN客戶端來收看實(shí)況轉(zhuǎn)播。延遲很厲害，這是一定的，原因是需求讓服務(wù)器不堪重負(fù)。上個(gè)月美德大戰(zhàn)時(shí)，ESPN的服務(wù)器干脆崩潰了。

????我猜沒有人真的感到意外，因?yàn)榭赡苓€有人記得，奧斯卡頒獎(jiǎng)典禮的網(wǎng)絡(luò)直播就崩潰過；《真探》（True Detective）大結(jié)局時(shí)，HBO的客戶端也不能正常使用；《美眉校探》（Veronica Mars）電影版的擁躉同樣無法順利進(jìn)行免費(fèi)下載。

????我們對(duì)這樣的延遲已經(jīng)習(xí)以為常?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)確實(shí)處理不了我們觀看的大量電視節(jié)目；“電視無處不在”的意思是電視臺(tái)以直播或點(diǎn)播的方式向觀眾提供在線內(nèi)容，但現(xiàn)在的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施可能無法實(shí)現(xiàn)這樣的想法。

????奈飛（Netflix）占據(jù)了北美約30%的家用互聯(lián)網(wǎng)帶寬。網(wǎng)絡(luò)數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)機(jī)構(gòu)Procera估算，《紙牌屋》（House of Cards）第二季播出的首個(gè)周末，6%-10%的奈飛用戶至少觀看了一集。不過，這樣的觀眾規(guī)模還趕不上一般成功的電視節(jié)目。比如說，美國(guó)電視網(wǎng)（USA Network）的《金裝律師》（Suits）首次播出時(shí)的觀眾人數(shù)為460萬。這樣的觀眾規(guī)模對(duì)一部電視連續(xù)劇來說已經(jīng)很可觀，但還算不上火爆異常（不過這是我最喜歡的電視劇之一）。此外，這部電視劇甚至沒有以無線形式播出，只是進(jìn)入了有線電視網(wǎng)絡(luò)?！独习掷蠇尩睦寺贰罚℉ow I Met Your Mother）中備受期待的一集可以引來近1100萬觀眾?？紤]到這樣的收視規(guī)模，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)似乎真的沒辦法承載電視。

????由于掌握了高達(dá)30%的家用互聯(lián)網(wǎng)帶寬，奈飛打破了傳統(tǒng)的對(duì)等直聯(lián)結(jié)構(gòu)，也就是兩個(gè)或多個(gè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)在硬件層面連接在一起，免費(fèi)交換數(shù)據(jù)。奈飛連接的網(wǎng)絡(luò)向?qū)Φ染W(wǎng)絡(luò)發(fā)送的數(shù)據(jù)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過了從對(duì)方那里接收的數(shù)據(jù)。這些多出來的數(shù)據(jù)迫使許多這樣的“最后一哩”服務(wù)供應(yīng)商升級(jí)自己的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，否則，用戶的收視體驗(yàn)就會(huì)打折。

????今年早些時(shí)候，康卡斯特（Comcast）和奈飛簽署了一份付費(fèi)直聯(lián)協(xié)議，旨在改善奈飛的節(jié)目播出效果，但這個(gè)舉措并不能改變這樣一個(gè)事實(shí)。那就是，播放高質(zhì)量視頻時(shí)我們對(duì)帶寬的使用總是處于極限狀態(tài)?？梢钥隙?，幾個(gè)月后奈飛指責(zé)威瑞森（Verizon）影響網(wǎng)速的報(bào)錯(cuò)信息截圖就會(huì)像病毒一樣在網(wǎng)上傳播開來。

????我一集不落地看了《紙牌屋》的最新一季。盡管我和我妻子購買了威瑞森的FiOS套餐升級(jí)版，每集的畫質(zhì)依然慘不忍睹。時(shí)不時(shí)地，每次畫面基本定格的時(shí)候，清晰度就會(huì)明顯上升，這只能讓我想到畫面質(zhì)量究竟有多糟糕。就像我們后來了解到的那樣，問題顯然不是出在威瑞森到我們家這個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)，而是奈飛到威瑞森。

????問題可能會(huì)變得更嚴(yán)重：拒絕有線電視的人喜歡把擺脫有線電視套餐的束縛掛在嘴邊，但我看到的趨勢(shì)是，網(wǎng)絡(luò)視頻服務(wù)本身也可能以套餐形式出現(xiàn)。想象一下，你搬了家，可以在一些網(wǎng)絡(luò)服務(wù)供應(yīng)商之間進(jìn)行選擇；那么在你做出決定之前，你需要先考察一下，看看哪些網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司可以提供你喜歡在線觀看的視頻內(nèi)容。

????我們當(dāng)然希望“電視無處不在”。然而，許多人談到奈飛等公司的問題時(shí)擔(dān)心的事情是收費(fèi)上升，或者某些電影公司把他們最喜歡的電影撤出點(diǎn)播清單。隨著美國(guó)最高法院裁定網(wǎng)絡(luò)電視公司Aereo侵犯電視臺(tái)版權(quán)，拒絕有線電視的消費(fèi)者現(xiàn)在開始迅速尋找次優(yōu)方案。但只要這些帶寬問題一直這么突出（或者變得更糟），我們就沒辦法大步向前邁進(jìn)，這個(gè)行業(yè)也就沒辦法為消費(fèi)者提供他們渴望的那種體驗(yàn)。奈飛今年獲得的艾美獎(jiǎng)提名增加了一倍以上，我得說他們（也包括我們）的期待程度相當(dāng)高。

????本文作者喬?馬切斯于2007年和別人共同創(chuàng)立了設(shè)在洛杉磯和紐約的數(shù)字廣告公司true[X]，現(xiàn)任首席執(zhí)行官。他還在數(shù)字和廣告有線電視網(wǎng)Fuse TV擔(dān)任高級(jí)副總裁，負(fù)責(zé)消費(fèi)者營(yíng)銷、數(shù)字和多平臺(tái)開發(fā)事務(wù)。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????During the World Cup games, many of us broke away from the workday to catch the emotional matches. At my office, like at many other companies large and small, we played the games’ live streams from the ESPN app on a big projector. Sure enough, the lag has been bad, as demand has swamped the servers. WatchESPN was outright crashing during theU.S.-Germany game last month.

????I’m guessing nobody is really surprised, given, as some might recall, the Oscars livestream crashed; HBO Go fizzled during the True Detective finale and Veronica Mars movie backers couldn’t get their free digital downloads on time.

????We’re used to these delays. The Internet literally can’t handle the amount of TV we watch; the idea behind “TV everywhere,” where television broadcasters provide viewers with access to online content via live or on-demand, may be impossible with our current infrastructure.

????Netflix NFLX -1.00% takes up about 30% of home Internet bandwidth in North America, and data from Procera estimates that anywhere from 6% to 10% of the online streaming service’s subscribers watched at least one episode of House of Cards Season 2 in its first weekend. Yet House of Cards doesn’t have nearly as many viewers as a moderately successful TV show. A total of 4.6 million people watched the premiere of USA’s Suits, for example, which for a series, is an impressive but not gargantuan hit (but one of my personal favorites!). And that’s not even broadcast, it’s cable. A highly anticipated episode of How I Met Your Mother could pull in close to 11 million viewers.Given such viewership, it seems the Internet literally cannot handle television.

????Because it takes up that whopping 30% of home Internet bandwidth, Netflix is disrupting traditional “peering” structures whereby two or more networks, which are required to be connected at a hardware level, exchange traffic for free. The networks that Netflix connects to are sending significantly more traffic to their peering partners than they’re receiving in return. The extra traffic forces many of these last-mile providers to either spend money to upgrade their infrastructure, or their users will suffer from a degraded viewing experience.

????Earlier this year, Comcast CMCSA -0.69% and Netflix signed a paid peering agreement designed to improve Netflix’s performance, but that doesn’t change the fact that we are consistently at the limits of bandwidth when it comes to streaming high-quality video. Sure enough, a few months later, images of Netflix error messages blaming Verizon for slow bandwidth started going viral online.

????I binge-watched the latest season of House of Cards.Even though my wife and I pay for an upgraded Verizon FiOS Internet package, every episode came through in painfully grainy quality. Every now and then, when the scenery barely moved, it would snap into much better focus, only to remind me how bad the viewing quality was. Obviously, as we later learned, the issue wasn’t Verizon to my house, but Netflix to Verizon.

????The problem is potentially bigger: Cord-cutters like to talk about being free of the constraints of cable bundles, but the trend I’m seeing is that bandwidth deals could turn into bundles themselves. Imagine you move into a new neighborhood and have a choice of Internet service providers; before you select, you need to do some homework on who has deals in place with the video content companies you like to watch over the Internet.

????We truly want “TV everywhere.” Yet when most people talk about problems with Netflix and its ilk, they’re talking about concerns that their subscription rates are going to go up or that some studio is going to pull their favorite movies from on-demand streaming. With theAereo U.S. Supreme Court decision, cord-cutters are now quickly hunting down their next best options. But as long as these bandwidth problems are as glaring as they are (and getting worse) we’re not going to make the strides we need, and the industry won’t be able to deliver the experience that consumers are hungry for. And judging by the fact that Netflix more than doubled its Emmy nomination haul this year, I’d wager they (we) are pretty hungry.

????Joe Marchese is the CEO of true[X], a Los Angeles and New York City-based digital advertising company he co-founded in 2007. He has also served as senior vice president of digital and advertising at the cable network Fuse TV, where he led consumer marketing, digital and multi-platform development.