????上周，專注于科技創(chuàng)業(yè)領(lǐng)域的TechCrunch網(wǎng)站報(bào)道，私募投資者對(duì)SpaceX的估值“接近100億美元”。這在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上引發(fā)了對(duì)該公司價(jià)值的大猜想，各種傳聞甚囂塵上。SpaceX迅速粉碎了這些猜測(cè)。該公司發(fā)言人在一份聲明中表示：“SpaceX目前沒(méi)有任何融資活動(dòng)，也沒(méi)有外部投資者進(jìn)行過(guò)那種水平或者更高量級(jí)的估值?！本瓦@樣，盡管一度被奉為價(jià)值百億美元的行業(yè)巨無(wú)霸，上周五SpaceX的收盤(pán)價(jià)又回到了周一開(kāi)盤(pán)時(shí)的水平。

????私營(yíng)航天業(yè)非常不透明，SpaceX又口風(fēng)甚嚴(yán)，再加上風(fēng)投領(lǐng)域的小道消息看起來(lái)很不可靠，這讓人們很難對(duì)它進(jìn)行解讀。同樣的，該公司的自我描述也不一定能成為對(duì)它進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)的依據(jù)（埃隆?穆斯克說(shuō)SpaceX將在未來(lái)10年里登陸火星。該公司總裁格溫?肖特韋爾則放言，到2100年SpaceX將成為太陽(yáng)系運(yùn)輸領(lǐng)域的主導(dǎo)者。在這兩個(gè)時(shí)點(diǎn)之間，SpaceX還打算把火箭有效載荷提高到58.5噸）。評(píng)估該公司當(dāng)前價(jià)值和升值潛力的最佳途徑也許不是金錢(qián)或者豪言壯語(yǔ)，而是觀察這一業(yè)界新貴對(duì)商業(yè)航天領(lǐng)域的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手產(chǎn)生了怎樣的影響。

????20世紀(jì)80年代初，美國(guó)退出了商業(yè)航天市場(chǎng)。從那時(shí)起，商業(yè)航天器發(fā)射領(lǐng)域基本上就處于被歐洲公司壟斷的狀態(tài)，比如法國(guó)的Arianespace[法國(guó)航空業(yè)巨頭空中客車(chē)（Airbus）持有部分股份]和International Launch Services[美俄合資，采用俄羅斯質(zhì)子號(hào)（Proton）運(yùn)載火箭的技術(shù)發(fā)射衛(wèi)星]。盡管SpaceX通過(guò)為國(guó)際空間站（International Space Station）運(yùn)送補(bǔ)給從美國(guó)國(guó)家航空航天局（NASA）獲得了很大一部分收入，但在該公司截至2018年的40多次發(fā)射任務(wù)中，價(jià)值2000億美元的衛(wèi)星發(fā)射市場(chǎng)也占了很大的比重，而且這個(gè)比例還在不斷上升。

????SpaceX的航天器發(fā)射價(jià)格有時(shí)僅僅為傳統(tǒng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的一半，這讓它在較短時(shí)間里成功實(shí)現(xiàn)了很高的市場(chǎng)占有率。該公司安全記錄良好，業(yè)界對(duì)其核心業(yè)務(wù)的信心也不斷增強(qiáng)。今年夏天，SpaceX為在德克薩斯州南部建立自己的專用發(fā)射場(chǎng)鋪平了道路，并且開(kāi)始實(shí)驗(yàn)火箭循環(huán)使用技術(shù)，這有可能大幅降低發(fā)射成本。

????如果SpaceX在歐洲等地的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手相信所有這些都只是炒作，那它們表達(dá)這種態(tài)度的方式也太奇怪了。就算不仔細(xì)觀察也能發(fā)現(xiàn)，這些公司看來(lái)正在慌忙展開(kāi)行動(dòng)。

????Last week, rumors concerning the value of Elon Musk’s SpaceX rippled across the Web after tech startup-watcher TechCrunch reported that private investment in the company valued it at “somewhere south of $10 billion.” SpaceX quickly quashed the rumor. “SpaceX is not currently raising any funding nor has any external valuation of that magnitude or higher been done,” a company spokesman said in a statement. And so SpaceX ended the week just as it began it, despite having briefly enjoyed the status of a $10 billion industry behemoth.

????The private spaceflight industry is so opaque and SpaceX’s cards are so closely held that it is difficult to get a read on the company, especially using the venture capital rumor mill. Nor can one necessarily judge SpaceX based on what the company says about itself. (Elon Musk says that the company is headed to Mars in the next decade. SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell boasts that by 2100 the company will dominate transportation across the solar system. Between them is a 58.5-ton payload of ambition.) Perhaps the best way to evaluate SpaceX and its potential value isn’t in dollar figures or in audacious claims, but by observing what the upstart space firm is already doing to its competition in the commercial space industry.

????That competition—mostly European space launch providers like France’s Arianespace (partially owned by French aerospace giant Airbus) and International Launch Services (a U.S.-Russia joint venture that launches satellites aboard Russian Proton launch technology)—has largely held a monopoly on commercial space launches since the U.S. retreated from the industry in the early 1980s. Though SpaceX derives a chunk of its income from NASA in exchange for resupplying the International Space Station, the $200 billion satellite industry makes up a huge and growing chunk of SpaceX’s nearly 40-strong launch manifest through 2018.

????By offering space launch services at prices that in some cases undercut the traditional launch industry by half, SpaceX has managed significant market penetration in a relatively short period of time. It has a strong safety record and industry confidence in its core services is growing. Over the summer the company cleared the path toward construction of its own dedicated launch facility in southern Texas while also experimenting with reusable rocket stage technology that could reduce launch costs by an order of magnitude.

????If SpaceX’s competitors in Europe and elsewhere believe all this to be nothing but hype, they have a strange way of showing it. To even the casual observer, SpaceX’s competitors appear to be scrambling.