????規(guī)?；Ｒ粋€(gè)公司不可能每天都發(fā)射火箭——全球各地的發(fā)射時(shí)間和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施都非常有限。而如果要保持目前的發(fā)展軌跡，Space X公司就要實(shí)現(xiàn)規(guī)?；?。一個(gè)位于博卡奇卡海灘（Boca Chica Beach，地處德州和墨西哥邊境）的全新發(fā)射裝置——該公司已經(jīng)在佛羅里達(dá)州卡納維拉爾角建立了發(fā)射裝置——將提供更大的發(fā)射能力，不再受到無(wú)法掌控的其他因素影響。但在保持可靠性和安全記錄的同時(shí)，該公司還必須提高火箭的生產(chǎn)能力，從而使這項(xiàng)據(jù)稱是該公司的最大試驗(yàn)得以繼續(xù)進(jìn)行。馬麗嘉稱：“如果公司今年能發(fā)射8次，那就很棒了。他們說(shuō)今后每年能發(fā)射10到15次，真能這樣的話，那肯定會(huì)對(duì)其他對(duì)手構(gòu)成重大威脅?！?/p>

????重復(fù)使用能力。今年Space X開(kāi)始試驗(yàn)可重復(fù)使用的一級(jí)火箭，將來(lái)它可以回收、翻新，多次發(fā)射?？紤]到航空發(fā)射企業(yè)絕大多數(shù)沉沒(méi)成本都是發(fā)射一次即告銷毀的多級(jí)火箭帶來(lái)的，這種新型火箭將極大改善航空發(fā)射的經(jīng)濟(jì)性。

????最后這一點(diǎn)尤其重要，因?yàn)樗鼘⒃俅斡绊懺摴靖?jìng)爭(zhēng)的跟進(jìn)能力。New Space Global公司的戴維表示，每次火箭發(fā)射中推進(jìn)劑的成本占十分之三。其他成本主要來(lái)自拋掉剩余硬件。其中又有四分之三和一級(jí)火箭有關(guān)。對(duì)總價(jià)值高達(dá)2000億美元的衛(wèi)星發(fā)射市場(chǎng)來(lái)說(shuō)，解決重復(fù)使用的問(wèn)題不僅能大幅降低發(fā)射成本，第一個(gè)能實(shí)現(xiàn)這一點(diǎn)的公司還將帶來(lái)大量新客戶。Space X的可重復(fù)使用一級(jí)火箭技術(shù)還有待成熟完善，但它確實(shí)是唯一一家開(kāi)展這類試驗(yàn)的公司。

????在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手紛紛縮減開(kāi)支、重組并學(xué)會(huì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)之際，Space X的真正價(jià)值與其能募得多少資金關(guān)系不大，而是更多地與該公司能否可靠地?cái)U(kuò)大生產(chǎn)規(guī)模有關(guān)。商業(yè)航空發(fā)射業(yè)正處于“適者生存、優(yōu)勝劣汰”的關(guān)鍵歷史關(guān)頭。就目前而言，是Space X正在推動(dòng)整個(gè)行業(yè)的發(fā)展。

????戴維表示：“如果大家擔(dān)心鷹隼9號(hào)火箭的成本太高，他們也應(yīng)該放眼展望未來(lái)，因?yàn)镾pace X公司正在開(kāi)始做所有卓越科技公司都會(huì)做的事情：顛覆自己的技術(shù)?，F(xiàn)在只是關(guān)注鷹隼9號(hào)并想和它一決雌雄，同時(shí)無(wú)視未來(lái)大勢(shì)，就好比多年前當(dāng)蘋果公司（Apple）首次推出iPod時(shí)，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手一心想擊敗這款產(chǎn)品，卻不考慮蘋果將來(lái)可能推出iPhone和iPad一樣?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：清遠(yuǎn)

????Scalability. Launching rockets isn’t the kind of thing a company can do every single day—there are limited launch windows and a limited amount of infrastructure in the world capable of launching them. To continue on its current trajectory, SpaceX has to scale. A new dedicated launch facility at Boca Chica Beach on the Texas-Mexico border—it already launches from Cape Canaveral in Florida—will offer greater capacity to launch independent of other factors beyond its control. But SpaceX will also have to scale its rocket production capacity while maintaining its record of reliability and safety, making this arguably the company’s biggest test going forward. “If they can get up to eight [launches this year] that’s great,” Maliga says. “They say they’ll do 10 to 15 per year, and if they get to that point that would be quite a threat.”

????Reusability. This year, SpaceX began experimenting with reusable first rocket stages that could one day be recovered, refurbished, and used for multiple flights. Considering most of the sunk costs in the space launch enterprise go into rocket stages that are used once and destroyed, this could significantly alter the economics of space launch.

????That last point is particularly important, as it will once again impact SpaceX’s competitors ability to keep pace. Three-tenths of one percent of the cost of a rocket launch is tied up in the propellant, New Space Global’s David says. Most of the remaining cost comes from throwing away the rest of the hardware. Of that, three quarters is tied up in the first rocket stage. Solving the reusability problem will not only drive down the cost of launch for the $200 billion satellite market, but the first company to get there will open up space for a host of new customers as well. SpaceX still has a ways to go before its reusable first stage technology is anywhere near mature, but it’s the only company actually experimenting with anything of the sort.

????SpaceX’s true value has less to do with how much money it has raised and more more to do both with its ability to reliably scale as its competitors retrench, regroup, and learn to compete. The commercial space launch industry is in the midst of an adapt-or-die moment. For now, SpaceX is driving it.

????“If everyone is worried about the cost of the Falcon 9, they also should be looking down the road because SpaceX is already doing what all good tech companies do: disrupting its own technology,” David says. “Looking at the Falcon 9 today and attempting to compete with it while ignoring the future is like being a competitor to Apple many years ago when they first introduced the iPod and neglecting to consider the possibility of the iPhone and the iPad.”