????為了了解資本市場從業(yè)者的“這場狂歡”，讓我們來看看阿里巴巴在9月5日公布的招股說明書中披露的上市計劃。這家來自于中國的在線和移動商務(wù)巨擘計劃發(fā)行約3.68億股股票，主承銷商有6家：瑞信（Credit Suisse）、摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）、摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）、高盛（Goldman Sachs）、花旗集團（Citigroup）和德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）。按詢價區(qū)間上限，也就是每股66美元計算，這次首發(fā)將為阿里巴巴融資超過240億美元，使該公司的市值達到1630億美元。那么，如果上市當天阿里巴巴的股價上漲25%，會出現(xiàn)什么情況呢？它的收盤價將達到82.50美元，通過承銷商認購了該公司股票的機構(gòu)每股將賺到16.50美元。如果阿里巴巴的管理層按這個真正的市場價格首發(fā)，他們就能多籌集60億美元資金。沒錯，60億美元。如果這就是“小費”的話，它的數(shù)量真是讓人乍舌（對此Peter Luger的服務(wù)員絕對會競相爭奪）。而小費就是小費——它只能留在餐桌上。

????受損失的可以分為兩組。一是包括雅虎（Yahoo）在內(nèi)的大股東和創(chuàng)始人馬云。他們拿出了2.19億股股票，也就流失了約36億美元資金。二是阿里巴巴本身，該公司出售其余待售股票，也就是說，它給的“小費”差不多有24億美元?？梢哉J為，如果一家公司手里的資金多24億美元，它的價值就會上升24億美元。因此，阿里巴巴有可能因為股價低估25%而犧牲1.5%的潛在市場價值。

????那么，誰是大贏家呢？答案并不意外——華爾街公司和它們下了大賭注的客戶，后者有機會買到了這些價格偏低的股票。帶來豐厚利潤的并非是承銷手續(xù)費。佛羅里達大學（University of Florida）的一位教授杰伊?里特指出：“承銷商倒是希望拿到更多的手續(xù)費，但是和首發(fā)規(guī)模相比，來自于中國和其他地區(qū)的公司為發(fā)行規(guī)模固定的IPO所支付的手續(xù)費偏低。同時，這次首發(fā)備受關(guān)注，這讓阿里巴巴在討價還價時處于很有利的位置?！边@些投行通過這次首發(fā)將得到約3.5億美元的手續(xù)費，只占阿里巴巴所籌資金的1%左右，遠低于大多數(shù)IPO的正常水平。

????和把錢交到投行人士手里相比，再沒有什么付款過程能更加曲折迂回了。這些煞有介事的華爾街公司讓自己所青睞的客戶迅速賺到了60億美元。這大約是1999-2001年整個科技熱潮期間華爾街所得“小費”的十分之一。隨后，投資者非常有可能在接下來的幾天乃至幾周時間里通過高額交易傭金來回報這些公司。傭金給的最多的往往是對沖基金，因此可以推斷對沖基金的認購份額通常最大。支付傭金較低的共同基金則不那么受投行歡迎。

????里特說，一般來講，華爾街公司會通過傭金拿到總利潤的30%，也就是18億美元。再加上手續(xù)費，這些公司的利潤有可能遠高于21億美元。

????當然，我們并不知道阿里巴巴上市當天會不會大幅上漲，或者到底會上漲多少。但這正是金融領(lǐng)域的奇觀之一。華爾街正打算再次施展這個讓人興奮的魔法，而且和我們最先認識的那個阿里巴巴相比，華爾街人士應(yīng)該非常清楚，他們認同的這個故事并不比《一千零一夜》可信。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????To understand the jubilation among the fraternity of capital-markets types, let’s examine Alibaba’s plan, as revealed in its prospectus released on Sept. 5. The Chinese online and mobile commerce colossus is offering a maximum of 368 million shares for sale through six principal underwriters: Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Deutsche Bank. If the shares sell at the top of the pricing range, at $66, the IPO would raise more than $24 billion, putting Alibaba’s market cap at $163 billion.

????So what happens if the company’s shares pop 25% on Day One? They would then close at $82.50, handing the institutions that purchased them through the underwriters a gain of $16.50 a share. If Alibaba and insiders had gotten that realmarket price instead of $66, they would have collected an additional $6 billion. That’s right: $6 billion. As far as tips go, that’s a staggering sum. (Any waiter at Peter Luger would be thrilled to get it.) But a tip is what it is—because that’s what’s being left on the table.

????The losers would divide into two categories. Large shareholders including Yahoo! and founder Jack Ma are selling as many as 219 million shares, so their portion of the foregone cash comes to about $3.6 billion. The company itself is selling the balance of the shares. Hence, it’s leaving around $2.4 billion on the table. It’s reasonable to assume that the same company with $2.4 billion more in cash is worth $2.4 billion more than the same company sans that cash. It’s therefore likely that Alibaba would sacrifice about 1.5% of its potential market value by allowing its shares to be 25% underpriced.

????So who are the major winners? No surprise here: the Wall Street firms and their high-roller clients who get to buy the underpriced shares. It’s not in banking fees where the big money resides. “The underwriters wanted higher fees but Chinese companies and those outside the U.S. pay less for a given sized deal,” says Jay Ritter, a professor at the University of Florida. “This is also a high-profile deal that put Alibaba in a strong bargaining position.” The investment banks are garnering around $350 million in fees, or only around 1% of the proceeds, well below the norm on most IPOs.

????No the cash payout to the bankers travels in a more circuitous route. These fabled Wall Street firms are handing their favorite clients $6 billion in quick profits. That’s around 10% of the total amount left on the table in the entire tech boom from 1999 to 2001. Investors, in turn, are very likely to repay the firms with big trading commissions in the days and weeks to come. The biggest such payers tend to be hedge funds, so hedge funds usually get the meatiest share allocations. Mutual funds that pay low commissions have less favored status.

????The rule of thumb, says Ritter, is that Wall Street recoups 30% of the total windfall in commissions. That’s $1.8 billion. So including fees, Wall Street’s potential take mounts to well over $2.1 billion.

????Of course, we don’t know if Alibaba will pop at all—or if so, by how much. But this is one of the great spectacles in the financial world. Wall Street is trying to work its intoxicating magic once again, and they’ve got folks who should know a lot better believing a tale no more believable than the Arabian Nights: the fables that brought us the first Alibaba.