????今后幾年，阿里巴巴（Alibaba）必須保持飛速增長(zhǎng)，以回饋投資者，對(duì)于這一點(diǎn)，沒(méi)人會(huì)提出異議，阿里巴巴董事長(zhǎng)馬云更不會(huì)有異議。但問(wèn)題在于，要實(shí)現(xiàn)其承諾的收入和利潤(rùn)快速增長(zhǎng)，阿里巴巴應(yīng)該把財(cái)力和人力集中在哪里？

????要應(yīng)對(duì)這項(xiàng)挑戰(zhàn)，需要有高度集中的增長(zhǎng)戰(zhàn)略。而眼下，阿里巴巴的擴(kuò)張計(jì)劃可謂一團(tuán)亂麻。

????阿里巴巴長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)的目標(biāo)是主導(dǎo)本土市場(chǎng)，然而，最近該公司又決心在全球市場(chǎng)上大展宏圖，這兩項(xiàng)使命之間的偏差令投資者困惑。他們也確實(shí)應(yīng)該感到困惑。在9月5日提交的招股說(shuō)明書里，電子商務(wù)巨頭阿里巴巴幾乎沒(méi)有提到海外擴(kuò)張計(jì)劃。相反，招股書大談特談阿里巴巴在國(guó)內(nèi)占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位，并且其定位絕佳，可從數(shù)字購(gòu)物增長(zhǎng)浪潮中獲益良多。數(shù)字購(gòu)物浪潮可謂史上一大消費(fèi)趨勢(shì)。

????為說(shuō)明這一點(diǎn)，招股書列舉了一系列令人咋舌的數(shù)據(jù)，這也是招股書的亮點(diǎn)之一。這些數(shù)據(jù)包括：阿里巴巴一年處理的線上訂單額高達(dá)2980億美元；在蓬勃發(fā)展的移動(dòng)購(gòu)物領(lǐng)域，阿里巴巴控制著86%的市場(chǎng)份額。簡(jiǎn)單來(lái)說(shuō)，這份長(zhǎng)達(dá)665頁(yè)的招股書可以用一句話來(lái)概括，那就是“中國(guó)是我們的未來(lái)”。

????然而，在最近的IPO路演上，馬云一直在宣揚(yáng)另一種截然不同的戰(zhàn)略。9月15日，他在香港對(duì)記者表示，阿里巴巴意欲在美國(guó)和歐洲大展拳腳。隨后，他又在舊金山盛贊阿里巴巴在俄羅斯和巴西發(fā)展前景廣闊。

????對(duì)此，服務(wù)企業(yè)用戶的全球貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)供應(yīng)商Panjiva聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人兼首席執(zhí)行官喬希?格林表示：“他們的戰(zhàn)略不清晰。招股書中大書特書在中國(guó)的機(jī)會(huì)，而馬云現(xiàn)在講的卻是全球發(fā)展大計(jì)?，F(xiàn)在阿里巴巴如日中天，這樣做也許沒(méi)問(wèn)題。但中期而言，如果投資戰(zhàn)略前后不一，將招來(lái)投資者警惕的目光?！?/p>

????格林認(rèn)為，阿里巴巴應(yīng)該鞏固在中國(guó)的主導(dǎo)地位。他表示：“他們從事的是網(wǎng)絡(luò)業(yè)務(wù)，在本土吸引的消費(fèi)者越多，隨之而來(lái)的商戶就越多，而新的產(chǎn)品反過(guò)來(lái)又會(huì)吸引更多消費(fèi)者，用戶群的增長(zhǎng)會(huì)呈現(xiàn)相輔相成之勢(shì)?！?/p>

????投資阿里巴巴就相當(dāng)于把寶全押在中國(guó)身上，而明天的中國(guó)也許不會(huì)像過(guò)去十年那樣風(fēng)光無(wú)限，特別是考慮到近來(lái)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩、房產(chǎn)價(jià)格和建設(shè)規(guī)模存在螺旋下跌風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。不過(guò)，在自己已經(jīng)是龍頭的領(lǐng)域進(jìn)一步做強(qiáng)合情合理。

????讓人意外的是，雖然嘴上不那么說(shuō)，但阿里巴巴的行動(dòng)表明，該公司對(duì)中國(guó)電商發(fā)展奇跡的未來(lái)并不是特別有信心。阿里巴巴并沒(méi)有把注意力完全放在數(shù)字領(lǐng)域，而是收購(gòu)了許多和電商無(wú)關(guān)的業(yè)務(wù)，包括電影公司、家電制造商和足球俱樂(lè)部。

????格林說(shuō)：“我想問(wèn)問(wèn)阿里巴巴，他們對(duì)中國(guó)的態(tài)度是樂(lè)觀還是悲觀。如果樂(lè)觀，他們就應(yīng)該利用自己的領(lǐng)先地位，竭盡全力發(fā)揮主導(dǎo)優(yōu)勢(shì)?！?/p>

????No one disputes that to reward investors, Alibaba must keep growing at tremendous speed in the years to come, least of all its chairman Jack Ma. The question is, where will Alibaba concentrate its investments and manpower to generate the fast-rising revenues and profits it’s promising?

????That challenge will require a highly focused growth strategy. Right now, Alibaba’s plans for expansion are a muddle.

????Investors are confused—or if they’re not, they should be—by the dissonance between Alibaba’s long-standing goal of dominating its home market and its newfound mission to become a major force around the globe. In its most recent IPO prospectus, filed on September 5, the e-commerce phenomenon makes little mention of plans to expand outside its home market. Instead, it touts Alibaba’s commanding position in China and its ideal positioning to ride the growth wave in digital shopping, which is one of the great consumer trends in history.

????To make its point, the prospectus is famously packed with staggering statistics, among them that Alibaba handles $298 billion a year in online retail orders and controls 86% of the mushrooming mobile marketplace. Put simply, you could summarize the 665-page prospectus in four words, “China is our future.”

????But on its recent IPO roadshow, Ma has been selling a totally different strategy. On September 15 in Hong Kong, Ma told reporters that Alibaba harbors big growth ambitions in the U.S. and Europe. And later in San Francisco, he lauded Alibaba’s prospects in Russia and Brazil.

????“It’s not clear what their strategy is,” says Josh Green, co-founder and CEO of Panjiva, a firm that provides global trade data to corporate customers. “The prospectus is all about opportunities in China, and Ma is now talking about his global ambitions. It may be all right for now because they’re doing so well, but in the medium-term, investors will look with a wary eye on any investment that doesn’t have a coherent strategy.”

????Green believes that Alibaba ought to deepen its dominance in China. “They’re in a network business,” he says. “The more customers they attract at home, the more businesses follow, then more customers want the new products, and the customer base grows in a mutually reinforcing cycle.”

????Investing in Alibaba constitutes a bet on a single nation, and the China of tomorrow may not prove the juggernaut of the past decade, particularly given the recent news of its slowing growth rate and the threat of a downward spiral in real estate prices and construction. Still, getting stronger in the areas in which you’re already a leader makes sense.

????Surprisingly, Alibaba—by its action, rather than its words—isn’t showing a lot of confidence in the next phase of China’s e-commerce miracle. Rather than concentrating solely on digital, it is buying lots of unrelated businesses, including a movie studio, an appliance manufacturer, and a soccer team.

????“I’d like to ask Alibaba if they’re bullish or bearish on China,” asks Green. “If they’re bullish, they’d use their poll position to do everything to exploit their dominance.”