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中國(guó)房?jī)r(jià)延續(xù)下跌趨勢(shì)

中國(guó)房?jī)r(jià)延續(xù)下跌趨勢(shì)

Geoffrey Smith 2014年10月29日
盡管政府推出了鼓勵(lì)居民購(gòu)房的各種政策,但房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)仍然沒(méi)有回暖跡象。

????今年9月份,中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的下滑勢(shì)頭仍在延續(xù)。在統(tǒng)計(jì)覆蓋的70個(gè)城市中,有69個(gè)城市的新建商品住宅價(jià)格出現(xiàn)下降。

????據(jù)中國(guó)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局(National Bureau of Statistics)稱,受訪城市中,新建商品住宅價(jià)格最大環(huán)比降幅為1.9%,其中北京和上海環(huán)比跌幅分別為0.7%和0.9%。與上月相比,70個(gè)受訪城市的二手住宅價(jià)格環(huán)比全部下降,最小降幅為0.5%,最大降幅為2.0%。

????這些數(shù)字表明,最近中國(guó)央行推出的救市措施至少到目前還未能成功地扭轉(zhuǎn)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的頹勢(shì)。近期,中國(guó)人民銀行(People’s Bank of China)將居民第二套住房首付比例要求從60%以上,下調(diào)至30%,執(zhí)行與首套房房貸一樣的首付比例要求。

????最新房?jī)r(jià)數(shù)據(jù)加劇了圍繞中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)去投機(jī)泡沫化進(jìn)程的不安情緒。分析師們擔(dān)心,泡沫破裂可能導(dǎo)致銀行不良貸款大幅上升。

????中國(guó)建設(shè)銀行股份有限公司(China Construction Bank Corp)上周四稱,截至第三季度末,該行不良貸款率升至1.13%,高于第二季度末的1.04%。雖然這仍遠(yuǎn)低于分析師們眼中的警戒線水平,但0.09%的增幅比前三個(gè)月0.02%的增幅要迅猛。根據(jù)中國(guó)人民銀行公布的數(shù)據(jù),6月份銀行業(yè)總體不良貸款率達(dá)到1.08%,為三年來(lái)最高水平。

????但分析師們擔(dān)心,官方數(shù)據(jù)可能沒(méi)有反映房地產(chǎn)信貸的全貌,因?yàn)樵S多信貸來(lái)自非正規(guī)渠道或所謂的“影子銀行”。

????影子銀行提供的新增貸款在近幾個(gè)月大幅下滑,因?yàn)榇蟛糠值貐^(qū)經(jīng)過(guò)多年的過(guò)度建設(shè)后均面臨住房供給過(guò)剩的困局。

????中國(guó)西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)(Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)6月份的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查報(bào)告顯示,2013年中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)地區(qū)整體住房空置率超過(guò)20%,而截至今年8月份,空置住房占據(jù)了4.2萬(wàn)億元(約6740億美元)的住房貸款余額。

????在過(guò)去六周,中國(guó)央行已經(jīng)通過(guò)向大型銀行提供3個(gè)月期貸款的形式向銀行業(yè)新注入了1000億美元流動(dòng)性,以確保地產(chǎn)業(yè)的放緩不會(huì)導(dǎo)致信貸市場(chǎng)凍結(jié)。

????受房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)減速拖累,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)整體增速已經(jīng)降至五年來(lái)最低水平。上周早些時(shí)候公布的最新官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示,今年第三季度,中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)僅同比增長(zhǎng)7.3%,低于政府7.5%的全年增速目標(biāo)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:Peter

????審校:Lina

????The decline in China’s housing sector continued in September, with prices for new homes falling in all but one of 70 major cities surveyed.

????The National Bureau of Statistics said that prices for new homes fell by up to 1.9% in the cities surveyed, with drops of 0.7% in Beijing and 0.9% in Shanghai. Prices for existing homes fell in all 70 cities, with drops of between 0.5% and 2.0%.

????The figures suggest that recent measures by the People’s Bank of China to support the market haven’t succeeded in turning it round, at least yet. The central bank recently cut downpayment requirements for those buying a second property to 30% from over 60%, the same level as first-time buyers enjoy.

????The numbers add to unease about the unwinding of a speculative bubble in the country’s real estate sector, which analysts fear may lead to a big rise in bad loans among its banks.

????China Construction Bank Corp CICHY 0.17% said Thursday bad loans rose to 1.13% of its total portfolio in the third quarter, from 1.04% at the end of the second quarter. While that’s still well below the level that analysts would consider stressed, the increase of 0.09% was faster than the 0.02% reported in the previous three months. Overall bad loans in the sector were at their highest in three years in June, according to the PBoC at 1.08%.

????Analysts worry, however, that official data may not capture the full picture, as much of the credit to the real estate sector goes through the informal, or shadow, banking sector.

????New loans through such shadow banks have fallen sharply in recent months, as most regions struggle with excess supply after years of over-building.

????A survey by China’s Southwestern University of Finance and Economics in June said that more that 20% of homes in urban areas were actually vacant, while as of August, around $674 billion was owed on empty properties.

????In the last six weeks, the PBoC has injected an extra $100 billion in liquidity to the country’s largest banks in the form of three-month loans to ensure that a slowdown in the real estate sector doesn’t make credit markets seize up.

????The real estate slowdown has contributed to the economy’s overall growth rate falling to its slowest in five years. The government said earlier this week that gross domestic product grew only 7.3% year-on-year in the third quarter, short of the government’s 7.5% target.

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