????

????隨著科技業(yè)初創(chuàng)公司的總估值達(dá)到驚人的180億美元，有一個(gè)問(wèn)題始終揮之不去：現(xiàn)金充盈的硅谷是否正在經(jīng)歷另一場(chǎng)泡沫？上周四晚，在舊金山的“40位40歲以下商界精英”的聚會(huì)上，《財(cái)富》（Fortune）咨詢(xún)了其中五位科技專(zhuān)家對(duì)此的觀(guān)點(diǎn)。他們的回答也許會(huì)讓你吃驚。

????馬克?貝尼奧夫

????Salesforce.com首席執(zhí)行官

????“這不是科技泡沫，而是世界史上最大的創(chuàng)新浪潮。這是云、社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)、移動(dòng)性和聯(lián)網(wǎng)產(chǎn)品結(jié)合而產(chǎn)生的一股難以想象的強(qiáng)大力量?！?/p>

????“最好的一個(gè)例子就是蘋(píng)果支付(Apple Pay)，我今天還用了它。我去沃爾格林（Walgreens）買(mǎi)藥，把手機(jī)對(duì)準(zhǔn)惠爾豐（Verifone）收款機(jī)，利用蘋(píng)果支付完成了一筆交易。蘋(píng)果支付是一個(gè)很棒的新平臺(tái)，會(huì)催生許多新公司。它將會(huì)引領(lǐng)一波新的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資浪潮，所有的銷(xiāo)售終端系統(tǒng)都需要替換。此外，這對(duì)蘋(píng)果公司（Apple）來(lái)說(shuō)也具有巨大的推動(dòng)作用。”

????“你可以把這看成我們行業(yè)的一個(gè)隱喻：一些本不存在的東西轉(zhuǎn)眼就出現(xiàn)了，然后就改變了一切。所有的一切都在改變，從未有過(guò)如此有趣的時(shí)代?！?/p>

????喬?杰比亞

????房屋租賃服務(wù)商Airbnb公司聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人兼首席產(chǎn)品官

????“這一切都是個(gè)循環(huán)，對(duì)吧？只要看看過(guò)去60年的股市就知道了，這其實(shí)是一個(gè)循環(huán)。但我們目前沒(méi)有遭遇科技泡沫，因?yàn)榭萍脊菊讷@取收入。我認(rèn)為現(xiàn)在和14年前發(fā)生的事情是有區(qū)別的。如今的公司正在賺取真金白銀。”

????杰斯?李

????Polyvore公司首席執(zhí)行官和共同創(chuàng)始人

????“我確實(shí)認(rèn)為我們?cè)庥隽丝萍寂菽?。有太多公司沒(méi)有商業(yè)模式或沒(méi)有可持續(xù)的商業(yè)模式。讓我頗為自豪的是，我們有自己的商業(yè)模式，但我認(rèn)為接下來(lái)行業(yè)該有一定的調(diào)整了?！?/p>

????杰伊?西蒙斯

????Atlassian公司董事長(zhǎng)

????“我相信現(xiàn)在看好市場(chǎng)的人非常多。無(wú)論有沒(méi)有泡沫，我認(rèn)為人們都很樂(lè)觀(guān)。看看市盈率吧，除2000年以外，這是自1940年以來(lái)的最高值?！?/p>

????約什?泰特里克

????Hampton Creek公司首席執(zhí)行官

????“我不認(rèn)為有泡沫。我覺(jué)得很多事情的好處和壞處都被夸大了。我認(rèn)為，無(wú)論是對(duì)這種發(fā)展感到興奮，還是由于現(xiàn)在的情況很像過(guò)去的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫而感到沮喪，都是人之常情。最終，衰退總要來(lái)的，但我認(rèn)為它來(lái)得不會(huì)這么快。

????從我的角度和我們的工作來(lái)看，我認(rèn)為關(guān)于泡沫的議論太多了。但是那（某種航向修正）在一年半之內(nèi)不太可能出現(xiàn)。我們一直跟沃爾瑪（Wal-Mart）、塔吉特百貨（Target）和全食超市（Whole Foods）等客戶(hù)保持接觸，試圖了解他們對(duì)當(dāng)今局勢(shì)的看法和理解，最后得出了這樣的結(jié)論?？雌饋?lái)形勢(shì)是有些不太對(duì)頭，但現(xiàn)在說(shuō)泡沫還為時(shí)尚早?！?span>（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

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????With startups fetching valuations as high as $18 billion, one persistent question remains: Is cash-laden Silicon Valley in the throes of another bubble? Fortune sought out five tech folks at last night’s 40 Under 40 party in San Francisco on Thursday night for more insight. Their answers may surprise you.

????Marc Benioff

????CEO, Salesforce.com

????“It’s not a tech bubble. It’s the biggest wave of innovation in the history of the world. It’s a combining of unbelievable forces of cloud, social networks, mobility plus connected products.

????A great example of that is Apple Pay, which I’ve been using today. I went to Walgreens, I put my phone right up against the Verifone receiver, and I did a transaction on Apple Pay. Apple Pay is an amazing new platform. It’s going to help create new companies. It’s going to create a new wave of infrastructure investments where all the point-of-sale systems are going to have to be replaced. And then it’s a huge accelerator for Apple.

????You can just think of that as a metaphor happening in our industry for something that one day doesn’t exist, and the next day it does and how it can change everything. Everything is changing, and there’s never been a more exciting time.”

????Joe Gebbia

????Chief product officer and co-founder, Airbnb

????“It’s all cyclical, right? Just take a look at the stock market over the last 60 years. There’s a cycle involved. But we’re not in a tech bubble because companies are making revenues. And I think that was a major difference between what’s happening right now and what’s happening 14 years ago. Companies today are making real money.”

????Jess Lee

????CEO and co-founder, Polyvore

????“I do think we’re in a bubble. There are too many companies with no business model or no sustainable business model. I’m proud that we have one, but I think there’s going to be some kind of correction.”

?????Jay Simons

????President, Atlassian

????“I believe there’s a lot of optimism in the market right now. Whether there’s a bubble or not a bubble, I believe people are just optimistic. Look at the fact that the PE [price-earnings] ratio is the highest it’s been since 1940 with the exception of 2000.”

????Josh Tetrick

????CEO, Hampton Creek

????“I don’t. I think a lot of things are overstated on the good and the bad. And I think it’s just human nature to get excited about things and to get too depressed when it looks like something. Eventually, there will be a downturn, but I don’t see it coming any time soon.

????I think from my perspective and what we’re doing, I think there’s so much noise about there being a bubble. But that [any sort of course correction] is more likely than not to be a year-and-a-half off. And that’s a result of all the customers we’re dealing with from Wal-Mart to Target to Whole Foods and just trying to get a sense of how they’re thinking and just understanding their environment. Feels like it’s a bit off. But it’s not now.”