????隨著公眾對空氣和水污染不滿的漸增，近幾個月，中國中央政府限制使用煤炭的力度倍增。2013年9月，中央政府發(fā)布了《大氣污染防治行動計劃》，目標是讓京津冀地區(qū)細顆粒物濃度下降25%，長三角地區(qū)下降20%。

????包括北京和上海在內(nèi)的主要城市已經(jīng)對使用煤炭做出了嚴格限制。按照十二五規(guī)劃，2015年中國煤炭產(chǎn)能將達到41億噸。今年10月份，中國政府表示，將不再核準新建30萬噸（約合33萬凈噸）以下的煤礦，這實際上封殺了那些造成煤炭供給過剩的小型不規(guī)范煤礦。數(shù)百個小煤礦已經(jīng)關閉，中國政府同時采取措施限制進口“臟”煤，即含硫量和灰分高的煤炭（盡管中國煤炭市場已經(jīng)供過于求，但受國內(nèi)運輸條件限制，購買印尼或澳大利亞煤炭要比購買山西和內(nèi)蒙等國內(nèi)北部省份的煤炭便宜，所以中國一直在進口煤炭）。

????與此同時，中國正在實施一項宏偉計劃，其內(nèi)容不是整體關閉煤炭行業(yè)，而是將其遷移到內(nèi)陸，遠離沿海地區(qū)大城市以及國際環(huán)保團體的挑剔目光。今年4月份我曾從山西向《財富》雜志發(fā)回過報道，在中央和省政府的指導下，煤炭企業(yè)正在西北省份建立大型煤炭基地。這些基地將包括大型煤礦、通過特高壓輸電線路和沿海城市相連的發(fā)電廠、大型煤制油工廠以及混凝土廠和化工廠等配套設施。

????這項重大的遷移及整合計劃可能會讓北京、上海和深圳等城市的天空藍起來，從而降低空氣污染引發(fā)的呼吸道疾病發(fā)病率和死亡人數(shù)。這項措施還有可能理順煤炭行業(yè)格局，讓供需更加平衡，并減少中國的石油進口。但它無法降低中國的整體碳排放水平。實際上，此舉可能大幅度提高中國的碳排放量，原因是燃煤數(shù)量的增多以及碳密集型生產(chǎn)工藝將得到更普遍的使用，特別是煤制油。

????世界資源研究所（World Resources Institute）重點關注中國能源問題的高級研究員楊艾倫（音譯）說：“我們非常擔心。在沿海地區(qū)執(zhí)行更嚴格的空氣污染標準意味著關閉燃煤發(fā)電廠，這將為天然氣帶來大量需求。中國西部地區(qū)想將煤轉(zhuǎn)換成天然氣并對外供應。這對全世界來說是一項非常不好的工藝?！?/p>

????新聞頭條記者經(jīng)常用“依賴上癮”來形容中國與煤炭的關系。將此想象為一場失敗的婚姻也許更為合適——在這里，雙方誰也離不開誰。中國需要煤炭行業(yè)來滿足國內(nèi)能源需求。隨著經(jīng)濟的增長（就算年增長率為7-8%，而不是過去10年中白熱化的10-12%）和中產(chǎn)階層的擴大，中國的能源需求必將繼續(xù)上升。當然，煤炭行業(yè)也要依靠需求的不斷擴大來保持增長，從而為10年來投入的大量資金提供回報，并通過煤礦、燃煤發(fā)電廠以及相關行業(yè)創(chuàng)造出數(shù)以十萬計的就業(yè)機會。在山西、內(nèi)蒙古和新疆，都存在著整座城市都依賴于煤炭開采和加工的現(xiàn)象。

????煤炭行業(yè)已經(jīng)在中國經(jīng)濟體系中自成一體。壓縮煤炭行業(yè)的規(guī)模將造成大量人員失業(yè)。盡管中國正在大力推廣可再生能源和天然氣，但很難想象中國經(jīng)濟和煤炭的這種相互依存關系很快就會被打破。

????但這并不是說沒有希望。近幾年，隨著中國的出口型經(jīng)濟向科技含量較高的產(chǎn)品和服務轉(zhuǎn)移，中國的整體能源密集度（創(chuàng)造單位GDP所需的能源）已經(jīng)下降。據(jù)路透社（Reuters）報道，國家發(fā)改委表示，中國大多數(shù)地區(qū)都將達到或者超額完成2015年節(jié)能目標；預計今年中國的能源消費增速將比2013年下降一半。綠色和平組織（Greenpeace）駐中國研究人員指出，2014年前三個季度，中國的燃煤總量比上年同期減少了1-2%。

????綠色和平組織的分析師們寫道：“相關數(shù)據(jù)表明，作為全球最大的經(jīng)濟體，中國終于開始從根本上降低溫室氣體排放增速?！?/p>

????不過，難以駕馭的中國煤炭行業(yè)仍在增長。今年10月份，就在清華大學公布上述研究結(jié)果的同時，新華社報道稱新疆西部發(fā)現(xiàn)了儲量128億噸的大型煤田，而且已經(jīng)開始采煤。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????審校：李翔

????Facing mounting public outrage over air and water pollution, the central government’s actions to limit coal use have multiplied in recent months. The Airborne Pollution Action Plan, unveiled by the central government in September 2013, calls for a reduction of air pollution in the northern region surrounding Beijing by 25%, and 20% in the Yangtze River Delta.

????Already, strict limitations on coal use in major urban areas, including Beijing and Shanghai, are in place. Planning to cap total coal production at 4.1 billion tons as of 2015, the government said in October it will no longer approve new coal mining projects below 300,000 metric tons (330,000 short tons), effectively banning the small, unregulated mines that have contributed to the coal glut. Hundreds of small mines have already closed, and the government has also taken steps to restrict imports of “dirty” coal—i.e., coal with high levels of ash and sulfur. (Although China’s coal market is oversupplied, imports continue because domestic transport issues mean it’s often cheaper to purchase coal shipped from Indonesia or Australia than buy domestic coal from the northern provinces of Shanxi and Inner Mongolia.)

????At the same time, though, China is embarking on a grandiose plan not to shut down the coal industry but to move it inland, away from the big cities of the coast and from the prying eyes of international environmental groups. As I reported for Fortune from Shanxi Province in April, coal producers, under the direction of the central and provincial governments, are building huge “coal bases” in the northwest provinces that will include large mines, power plants connected to coastal cities via gigantic high-voltage transmission lines, huge plants to convert coal to liquid fuel, and related facilities such as concrete plants and chemical plants.

????This huge migration and consolidation may well clean up the skies in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, thus reducing rates of respiratory disease and deaths linked to air pollution. It could also rationalize the coal industry, better matching supply to demand, and reduce China’s imports of foreign oil. What it won’t do is reduce the country’s overall carbon emissions; in fact, it could drastically increase them, as more coal gets burned and more carbon-intensive processes – particularly coal-to-liquids conversion – are expanded.

????“We are very concerned” about the coal-base plan, says Ailun Yang, a senior associate with the World Resources Institute who focuses on energy issues in China. “Enforcing tougher air pollution standards along the coast will lead to shutting down coal plants, and create demand for a lot more gas. The western parts of China want to supply the gas by turning coal into gas. That process will be very, very bad for the world.”

????Headline writers often refer to China’s “addiction” to coal. The relationship might be better thought of as a bad marriage, where neither partner can afford to leave. China needs the coal industry to fuel its demand for energy, which will surely continue to rise as the economy grows (even at rates of 7% to 8% a year, rather than the red-hot 10% to 12% annually of the last decade) and the middle class expands. The coal industry, of course, requires rising demand to continue to grow, to generate returns on its huge capital investments of the last decade, and to provide jobs for the hundreds of thousands of people who work in coal mines, coal plants, and related industries. In Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang, entire cities depend on coal production and processing.

????Coal in China has created an economy within an economy, and reducing the size of the coal industry would result in massive unemployment across large swaths of the country. Notwithstanding China’s huge push on renewable energy and natural gas, it’s hard to see how this co-dependency will be broken any time soon.

????That’s not to say there’s no hope. China’s overall energy intensity (the amount of energy required to produce a given unit of GDP) has gone down in recent years, as the export-led economy shifts toward higher-tech products and services. Most areas of the country are on track to meet or exceed energy-conservation targets for 2015, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (as reported by Reuters), and the rate of growth in energy use is expected to fall by half this year compared to 2013. According to China-based researchers for Greenpeace, the total amount of coal burned in the first three-quarters of 2014 was 1% to 2% lower than the same period a year earlier.

????“The data suggests the world’s largest economy is finally starting to radically slow down its emission growth,” wrote the Greenpeace analysts.

????Still, the coal beast on the mainland continues to grow. In October, just as the results of the Tsinghua University study of coal fatalities was being released, the national news agency Xinhua reported that a huge coal field, containing 12.8 billion tons, had been discovered in western Xinjiang. Mining has already begun.