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滬港通緩慢啟動(dòng)

滬港通緩慢啟動(dòng)

Scott Cendrowski 2014年11月21日
中國(guó)大陸股市與外界之間的大門已經(jīng)打開,盡管媒體上炒得一片火熱,但至今為止實(shí)際交易并不算活躍。

????上周,滬港通高調(diào)落地。這終結(jié)了中國(guó)長(zhǎng)期以來一個(gè)殘酷的不公平現(xiàn)象:中國(guó)大陸的投資者無法購買像百度、阿里巴巴和騰訊(三者合稱為“BAT”)等中國(guó)一流企業(yè)的股票。

????中國(guó)對(duì)出境資金的嚴(yán)格限制,使得個(gè)人投資者(或其共同基金經(jīng)理)無法購買在紐約上市的阿里巴巴等海外股票。同理,直到上周,外國(guó)資產(chǎn)管理公司除非通過極為繁瑣的許可程序,否則也無法購買中國(guó)大陸的股票。

????許多中國(guó)企業(yè)都選擇在香港上市。騰訊、中國(guó)移動(dòng)以及聯(lián)想集團(tuán)都屬于此前在港上市、新近允許大陸投資者投資的企業(yè)。不過,在上周三,中國(guó)投資者對(duì)于投資中國(guó)一流企業(yè)似乎興趣不大。

????滬港通這項(xiàng)中國(guó)股市的重大改革開鑼前三天,資金主要是北上,由香港國(guó)際投資者投入中國(guó)大陸股市。上周三結(jié)束時(shí),北上資金總量達(dá)到每日限額的20%,而南下資金總量,即大陸投資者投入香港股市的資金,僅為每日限額的2.5%。上周一和周二,南下資金量也明顯處于低位。

????如今看來,那些預(yù)測(cè)南下和北上資金流都將洶涌的人士,是過于樂觀了。截止上周三,騰訊已經(jīng)連續(xù)三日下跌,自上周一以來在香港股市下跌了5.5%。此前,騰訊股價(jià)連日上漲,部分是因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)預(yù)期該股會(huì)受到大陸投資者的青睞。同樣,由于預(yù)期的資金流入并未出現(xiàn),聯(lián)想和中國(guó)移動(dòng)的股票也遭到拋售。

????沒有出現(xiàn)預(yù)期的上漲,其原因可以歸結(jié)為萬事開頭難。比如,目前尚不完全清楚,香港和上海的稅制差異將如何調(diào)和,盡管中國(guó)政府上周宣布,將暫時(shí)免除部分資本所得稅。此外,中國(guó)投資者必須費(fèi)勁的啃完新法規(guī),而且許多在香港上市的公司,同時(shí)也有在上海上市。

????另外,還有一個(gè)可能的原因是,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能無法再實(shí)現(xiàn)股市早就習(xí)以為常的高速增長(zhǎng)。

????但是,使人人都有機(jī)會(huì)投資一流的中國(guó)上市公司,不論其是在中國(guó)大陸還是香港上市,都是一個(gè)令人興奮的變化。而且,正如記者陽歌(Doug Young)在其關(guān)注中國(guó)股票的博客中所寫,“如果滬港通獲得成功,阿里巴巴和百度等在紐約上市的公司,甚至可能考慮在香港進(jìn)行二次上市。”

????屆時(shí),或許中國(guó)投資者可以同美國(guó)電視臺(tái)評(píng)論員以及華爾街人士一樣,對(duì)于阿里巴巴股價(jià)的每日波動(dòng)喋喋不休。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:Hunter

????審:李翔

????The new stock market link between Shanghai and Hong Kong that opened this week to big fanfare corrected what has long been a cruel unfairness in China: that shares of its best companies, such as Baidu Inc, Alibaba, and Tencent Holdings (known as the collective BAT) can’t be bought by Chinese mainland investors.

????China’s strict outbound money rules prevent mom and pop investors (or their mutual fund managers) from buying overseas stocks such as Alibaba, which is listed in New York. By the same token, foreign asset managers couldn’t, until this week, buy mainland Chinese stocks except through a hugely cumbersome permissioning process.

????Hong Kong is a popular listing for many Chinese companies, where Tencent, China Mobile, and Lenovo Group are among those listed there and newly eligible for mainland investors. But by Wednesday, the Chinese showed little interest in owning their national champions.

????The money flows through the first three days of China’s meaningful stock market reform mostly went northbound from Hong Kong’s international investors into mainland China. At the end of Wednesday, northbound investments represented 20% of the daily cap on flows; southbound flows, from mainland investors to Hong Kong, were just 2.5% of the daily cap. Similar low levels of southbound money were evident on Monday and Tuesday.

????All those anticipating a flood of money in both directions were left looking a bit Pollyannish. Tencent capped its third straight day of losses today, falling 5.5% in Hong Kong since Monday after rising for days, partly in anticipation of the link to mainland investors; Lenovo and China Mobile similarly sold off when anticipated money flows never came.

????The explanations for the rise that never came might boil down to teething troubles. It’s still not entirely clear, for instance, how the differing tax regimes in Hong Kong and Shanghai will be reconciled–despite Beijing’s announcement last week that it would temporarily exempt some taxation of capital gains. Also, Chinese investors have to wade through new regulations and many of the Hong Kong stocks are listed in Shanghai too.

????It might also have something to do with the fact that China’s economy may no longer be able to deliver the kind of growth that equity markets have long taken for granted.

????But allowing everyone a chance to own the best of China’s listed companies, be they in mainland China or Hong Kong, is an exciting change and “a successful connection could even prompt existing New York-listed companies like Alibaba and Baidu to consider secondary listings in Hong Kong,” wrote Doug Young on his blog following Chinese stocks.

????Maybe then, Chinese investors could join the American TV talking heads and Wall Streeters obsessing over BABA’s daily swings.

????I'd like to get you on a through train to Hong Kong...but not too desperately.

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