????機器人來了，而且想搶走你的工作。Savioke公司最近開發(fā)了一款三英尺高的機器人SaviOne，它可以代替服務員，向酒店房間送零食或洗漱用品。除了可以自動找到你的房間、送東西之外，它甚至還可以自行坐電梯，而且既不用睡覺也不用去洗手間。此外，機器人也不會辭職——據(jù)美國酒店業(yè)協(xié)會(American Hotel & Lodging Association)估算，在美國酒店業(yè)中，非管理崗位的員工流動率高達50%左右。

????除了酒店業(yè)，Momentum Machines公司也發(fā)明了一款會烤漢堡的機器人，每10秒鐘就可以做一個漢堡包。該機器人可以代替三名全職廚房員工，占據(jù)的空間也更少，有望降低成本。Momentum Machines公司的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人亞里山德羅斯?瓦爾達克斯塔斯最近在利姆諾實驗室(Lemnos Labs)接受采訪時稱，他的機器人“并不是為了讓員工更有效率，而是要完全取代他們?！?/p>

????Savioke和Momentum Machines的機器人，都是即將到來的科技革命的早期信號。拜機器人學、大數(shù)據(jù)、云計算和移動技術的長足進步所賜，這次科技革命可能會取代千百萬人的工作。在這次革命中，我們看到的圖景可能與工業(yè)革命時期沒什么不同。在1920年，英國企業(yè)雇傭的手工綿紡織工約為24萬人。而隨著機械織布機的興起，不到40年，其中99%的工作崗位都消失了。

????牛津大學（Oxford University）最近的一項研究顯示，在未來20年中，現(xiàn)有工作的47%都有可能被自動化所取代。自19世紀早期的工業(yè)革命以來，各種新發(fā)明創(chuàng)造的新工作崗位，足以抵補那些失去的職業(yè)。但鑒于如今的科技創(chuàng)新企業(yè)能夠以最少的人數(shù)創(chuàng)造極大的成就，這次的情況可能會非常不一樣。比如在2012年，Instagram的注冊用戶達到3000萬人，并被Facebook出價10億美元收購——Instagram當時只有13名員工。相比之下，柯達公司（Kodak）于2012年申請破產(chǎn)，它在最高峰時曾擁有14.5萬名員工。

????大顛覆的確就要到來了，那么我們應該做些什么呢？

????如果以史為鑒，有些人可能會推動保護主義，使某些工作不被自動化取代，以保持短期內(nèi)的就業(yè)水平。在下一個10年里，隨著無人駕駛汽車的發(fā)展，美國有23.3萬名出租車司機和170萬名卡車司機都要面臨失業(yè)的風險。現(xiàn)在美國的許多城市已經(jīng)試圖封堵打車應用Uber，所以在無人駕駛汽車問題上，我們可能也會遇到同樣的反對聲浪。但在長期看，封鎖創(chuàng)新是一種短視行為，而且會使國家失去競爭力，落于于那些樂于接受更高效的新技術的國家。

????在未來20年里，那些非熟練技術工更有可能感受到被機器人奪走工作的痛苦。貧富差距會進一步加大。這有可能進一步加劇緊張局面，刺激更多人游說提高最低工資。但是就像保護主義一樣，提高最低工資最終也可能起到反效果。比如提高酒店業(yè)和快餐業(yè)員工的最低工資，可能會進一步提高企業(yè)對自動化的興趣，因為他們覺得這樣做無疑會給公司省更多的錢。

????因此，與其推行就業(yè)保護主義、提升最低工資，我們還不如認真考慮應該如何改進美國過時的教育體系。在19世紀，正是教育拯救了這個國家。這一次，教育也同樣是決定性因素。

????The robots are coming and they want your job. Savioke recently developed a three-foot tall SaviOne robot that replaces the human delivery of snacks and amenities to your hotel room. The robotic butler can navigate your room, make deliveries and even ride the elevator — all without sleeping or going to the bathroom. In addition, robots don’t quit their jobs, whereas the hotel industry, according to the American Hotel & Lodging Association, experiences staff turnover of around 50% in non-management staff.

????Moving beyond the hotel industry, Momentum Machines invented a burger-flipping robot that can produce a burger every 10 seconds. This robot replaces three full-time kitchen staff and takes up far less space, potentially able to reduce costs. Momentum Machines Co-Founder Alexandros Vardakostas recently said in an interview at Lemnos Labs that his robot “isn’t meant to make employees more efficient. It’s meant to completely obviate them.”

????Both Savioke and Momentum Machines are early signs of the upcoming Technology Revolution. Spawned by advances in robotics, big data, cloud computing and mobile, the revolution could replace millions of jobs. If you recall, the Industrial Revolution was no different than what we will likely see in the future. In 1820, the UK employed approximately 240,000 cotton hand weavers. Within 40 years, 99% of those jobs vanished as a result of the mechanical loom.

????About half, 47%, of today’s jobs could be automated away over the next 20 years, according to a recent study by Oxford University. Following the Industrial Revolution during the early 1800s, new inventions created more than enough new work to replace the jobs that were dislocated. But given the ability of today’s technology startups to reach massive scale with minimal headcount, things very well might be different this time around. In 2012, Instagram reached 30 million users and was acquired by Facebook FB -3.35% for $1 billion — all with just 13 employees. By contrast, Kodak filed for bankruptcy in 2012 and employed 145,000 people during its peak.

????Indeed, disruption is coming. So what should we do about it?

????If history is any indication, some will push for protectionism, shielding certain jobs in order to preserve employment levels in the short-term. Over the next decade, 233,000 taxi drivers and 1.7 million truck drivers in the U.S. could be at risk of having their jobs automated away by driverless vehicles. Given that many cities have already attempted to block the expansion of Uber, we could experience similar tensions when driverless cars arrive. However, in the long-term, attempting to block innovation is short-sighted and makes countries less competitive relative to others who are willing to accept new, more efficient technologies.

????Over the next two decades, the most pain will be felt by lesser-skilled workers most likely to lose their jobs to automation. As a result, the gap between the “haves and the have-nots” will widen. This could potentially create tension and fuel lobbying to increase the minimum wage. But like protectionism, raising the minimum wage could ultimately be counter-productive. Increasing minimum wage for hotel or fast-food employees, for example, could actually make companies more interested in automating away those positions if it actually saves companies more money.

????Instead of protecting jobs or increasing the minimum wage, we should seriously consider improving America’s antiquated education system. Education is what saved the nation during the 19th century and it could be critical this time as well.