????最近的石油價格下跌不會將美國頁巖油行業(yè)置于死地，而只會讓它變得更有效率。

????利潤率和盈虧平衡點(diǎn)不僅僅和油價有關(guān)，還取決于經(jīng)營成本。隨著油價下跌，生產(chǎn)企業(yè)必將重新商討那些貴得離譜的油田服務(wù)合同，降低員工工資并削減津貼，以便讓成本和下跌的油價保持一致。對石油的需求依然旺盛，這將為石油開采企業(yè)提供足夠的長期支撐，但后者必須首先理順自身的財務(wù)狀況。

????對許多長年跟蹤石油行業(yè)的人來說，油價如何攀升到每桶100美元仍然是個謎。而過去六個月中油價下跌了40%，同樣讓看漲和看跌的人都感到驚訝。石油價格究竟為什么會跌得如此之猛？如此之快？人們有各種各樣的猜測，從沙特想“摧毀”美國的頁巖油行業(yè)，到美國和沙特聯(lián)手制造供給泛濫，目的是讓咄咄逼人的俄羅斯和頑固不化的伊朗陷入破產(chǎn)境地，不一而足。

????讓我們先把陰謀論放在一邊，實際情況是油價已經(jīng)下跌，而且可能在一段時間內(nèi)保持在“較低”水平。這種局面讓分析師、記者和評論人士四處宣稱世界末日到了。

????人們的緊張可以理解。畢竟，石油行業(yè)是美國就業(yè)機(jī)會和財富的主要來源。經(jīng)濟(jì)分析機(jī)構(gòu)The Perryman Group的研究顯示，石油行業(yè)為美國貢獻(xiàn)了1.2萬億美元GDP和930多萬個長期就業(yè)機(jī)會。這些GDP和就業(yè)機(jī)會并非直接由頁巖油行業(yè)創(chuàng)造，甚至不是整個能源行業(yè)，而是該行業(yè)給地方經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來的乘數(shù)效應(yīng)所產(chǎn)生的。想到這一點(diǎn)，就明白為什么油價的每次下跌都會造成緊張空氣了，更別說跌幅達(dá)到了40%。

????德克薩斯州休斯敦市是美國的石油之都，在這里最能感受到這種緊張氣氛。油價持續(xù)下滑尚未對這座城市的經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生重大影響，至少目前還沒有。但這里的人們已經(jīng)變得非常焦慮，特別是那些40歲以下的人，我把這個群體稱為“頁巖油嬰兒潮一代”。在休斯敦新興的中產(chǎn)階層社區(qū)East End和Midtown的酒吧和餐館里，經(jīng)常能聽到小伙子（和姑娘）們探討自己所在公司的盈虧平衡點(diǎn)和油價的關(guān)聯(lián)。在北達(dá)科他州巴肯擁有大片頁巖油田的采油公司的員工們認(rèn)為，西德州輕質(zhì)低硫原油（WTI）價格需保持在每桶60美元以上，他們的公司才能繼續(xù)盈利。而那些在南德州Eagleford擁有大量頁巖油業(yè)務(wù)的石油公司的員工們則表示，油價下跌到不低于45-50美元時，他們的公司能安然無恙。

????這兩個群體都表示，他們已經(jīng)聽說自己的公司開始撤出油田中“投機(jī)性”較高的區(qū)域，也就是說這些公司的石油產(chǎn)量出現(xiàn)了多年來的首次下降。美聯(lián)儲（Fed）周三公布的褐皮書印證了這一點(diǎn)。該報告指出，由于油價迅速下跌，11月初石油和天然氣公司在北達(dá)科他州的經(jīng)營活動減少。不過，美聯(lián)儲補(bǔ)充道，該地區(qū)“高層”對前景“保持樂觀”，他們預(yù)計今后兩年石油產(chǎn)量將繼續(xù)上升。

????這些“高層”在想什么？難道他們不擔(dān)心盈虧平衡價格嗎？當(dāng)然擔(dān)心，但和“頁巖油嬰兒潮一代”不同的是，他們可能還記得油價處于個位數(shù)時開采石油的情形，而這其實并不是那么久遠(yuǎn)。對這些經(jīng)驗豐富的石油人來說，每桶60美元的油價仍有極大的吸引力。

????從事能源行業(yè)滿意度調(diào)查，評級和分析的EnergyPoint Research公司的創(chuàng)始人道格?謝里丹回憶說，10年前他曾和一家能源巨頭的石油業(yè)務(wù)主管共進(jìn)午餐，后者向他透露，他們公司擔(dān)心油價漲得太高太快。謝里丹告訴《財富》（Fortune）雜志：“他害怕高油價會引起媒體和國會的關(guān)注，從而產(chǎn)生不利影響?？尚Φ氖?，那時候油價只有33美元左右?！?/p>

????The recent drop in crude prices won’t kill off the US shale oil industry. It’ll just make it more efficient.

????Profit margins and break-even points are relative not only to the price of oil, but also to the cost of doing business. As oil prices drop, producers will undoubtedly renegotiate their ludicrously expensive oil service contracts, slash wages for their workforce and cut perks to bring their costs in line with the depressed price for crude. The demand for oil remains strong, which should provide an adequate floor for producers in the long run, but only after they get their finances in order.

????How oil prices ever reached $100 a barrel still remains a mystery to many who have followed the industry for years. But the 40% drop in oil prices over the past six months has been shocking for oil bears and bulls alike. Why on earth did it fall so hard, so fast? There is plenty of speculation, ranging from the Saudi’s wish to “crush” the U.S. shale industry, to the U.S. colluding with the Saudi’s to flood the market in order to bankrupt an aggressive Russia and an obstinate Iran.

????Conspiracy theories aside, the fact is oil prices have dropped and they may stay “l(fā)ow” for a while. This has analysts, journalists, and pundits running around claiming that it’s the end of the world.

????It is understandable that people are nervous. After all, the oil industry is a major producer of jobs and wealth for the U.S. It contributes around $1.2 trillion to U.S. GDP and supports over 9.3 million permanent jobs, according to a study from The Perryman Group. Not all that money and jobs come directly from the shale oil industry or even the energy industry as a whole but instead derive from the multiplier effect the industry has on local economies. Given this, it’s clear why any drop in the oil price, let alone a 40% drop, is cause for concern.

????Nowhere in the U.S. is that concern felt more acutely than in Houston, Texas, the nation’s oil capital. The falling price of crude hasn’t had a major impact on the city’s economy, at least not yet. But people, especially the under-40 crowd—the Shale Boomers, as I call them—are starting to grow very worried. At bars and restaurants in Houston’s newly gentrified East End and Midtown districts, you often hear the young bucks (and does) comparing notes on their company’s break-even points with respect to oil prices. Those who work for producers with large acreage in the Bakken shale in North Dakota are saying West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude needs to stay above $60 a barrel for their companies to stay in the black. Those who work for producers with large acreage in the Eagleford shale play in south Texas say their companies can stay above water with oil as low as $45 to $50 a barrel.

????Both groups say that they have heard their companies are starting to walk away from some of the more “speculative” parts of their fields, which translates to a decrease in production, the first such decrease in years. This was confirmed Wednesday when the Fed’s Beige Book noted that oil and gas activity in North Dakota decreased in early November due to the rapid fall in oil prices. Nevertheless, the Fed added the outlook from “officials” in North Dakota “remained optimistic,” and that they expect oil production to continue to increase over the next two years.

????What are these “officials,” thinking? Don’t they worry about the break-even price of oil? Sure they do, but unlike the Shale Boomers, they also probably remember drilling for oil when it traded in the single digits, which really wasn’t that long ago. For these seasoned oil men, crude at $60 a barrel still looks mighty appealing.

????Doug Sheridan, the founder of EnergyPoint Research, which conducts satisfaction surveys, ratings, and reports for the energy industry, recalls when he had lunch with an oil executive of a major energy giant 10 years ago who confided in him that his firm was worried that oil prices had risen too high, too fast. “He was concerned that the high prices would attract negative attention from the press and Congress,” Sheridan told Fortune. “The funny thing was, oil prices were only around $33 a barrel.”