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索尼“刺殺金正恩”,還是刺殺自己?

索尼“刺殺金正恩”,還是刺殺自己?

Tom Huddleston, Jr. 2014-12-19
因黑客威脅而取消上映的《刺殺金正恩》一片耗資超過(guò)4,000萬(wàn)美元。索尼影業(yè)能否收回成本?

????由于受到黑客的嚴(yán)重威脅,塞斯?羅根、詹姆斯?弗蘭科主演的芯片《刺殺金正恩》(The Interview,又名《采訪》)將無(wú)法如期在電影院內(nèi)與觀眾見(jiàn)面,至少近期上映無(wú)望。

????本周三,索尼影業(yè)(Sony Pictures Entertainment)宣布取消《刺殺金正恩》原定的首映式。這是繼數(shù)周前該公司被黑客入侵電腦系統(tǒng)后,發(fā)生的又一起戲劇性事件。不久前,該公司內(nèi)部電子郵件遭到故意泄露,之后幾家全美最大的影院遭到威脅,決定撤出放映計(jì)劃。

????聲稱對(duì)上個(gè)月攻擊索尼影業(yè)負(fù)責(zé)的“和平衛(wèi)士”(Guardians of Peace)黑客組織周二再次發(fā)出威脅,揚(yáng)言將對(duì)所有放映《刺殺金正恩》的影院采取一系列暴力襲擊。索尼投拍的喜劇電影《刺殺金正恩》講述了一個(gè)刺殺朝鮮領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人金正恩的虛構(gòu)故事。(周三,美國(guó)政府官員表示,懷疑此次網(wǎng)絡(luò)攻擊的幕后黑手可能是朝鮮黑客,但朝鮮方面已予以否認(rèn)。)

????周三,帝王娛樂(lè)(Regal Entertainment)、AMC娛樂(lè)(AMC Entertainment)、卡麥克院線(Carmike Cinemas)和加拿大Cineplex Entertainment以恐怖威脅為由,一致決定推遲放映這部電影。據(jù)報(bào)道,喜滿客影城(Cinemark)也作出了類似的決定。這些是美國(guó)五個(gè)最大的院線公司,在美國(guó)和加拿大共擁有兩萬(wàn)多塊大屏幕。

????該片原定于下周圣誕節(jié)首映,由于擔(dān)心屆時(shí)可能會(huì)被美國(guó)大多數(shù)電影院拒之門(mén)外,索尼影業(yè)不得不放棄原定的上映計(jì)劃。該公司在一份聲明中表示,“我們對(duì)某些人如此厚顏無(wú)恥地打壓一部電影的上映感到非常難過(guò),在這一過(guò)程中,他們肆意傷害索尼影業(yè)、我們的員工以及美國(guó)民眾的利益。我們力挺我們的電影工作者,支持他們自由表達(dá)的權(quán)力,同時(shí)對(duì)電影無(wú)法上映這一結(jié)果表示極度失望。”

????那么,索尼影業(yè)究竟會(huì)受到什么樣的影響?

????據(jù)報(bào)道,《刺殺金正恩》的制作成本超過(guò)4,000萬(wàn)美元,其中支付給影片聯(lián)合編劇兼主演羅根840萬(wàn)美元,支付給另外一名主演弗蘭科650萬(wàn)美元。(兩位主演的薪酬數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)自于黑客事件后泄露的眾多數(shù)據(jù)之一。)當(dāng)然,該數(shù)字還不包括公司原本為影片推廣準(zhǔn)備的數(shù)千萬(wàn)美元——現(xiàn)在這部分估計(jì)可以省了。

????如果索尼選擇完全取消《刺殺金正恩》的上映,而不是推遲,那么公司將很難收回成本。綜藝雜志《Variety》12月17日的報(bào)道稱,索尼影業(yè)正考慮完全繞過(guò)電影院,通過(guò)付費(fèi)視頻點(diǎn)播的方式發(fā)行該影片,此舉可使索尼嘗試一種新的發(fā)行方式,而不用擔(dān)心激怒已經(jīng)通過(guò)上映《刺殺金正恩》的影院。

????即使考慮到由于黑客和威脅造成帶來(lái)的宣傳效果(雖然他們寧愿不要),索尼影業(yè)能夠通過(guò)觀眾的家庭直接點(diǎn)播《刺殺金正恩》獲得多少銷售收入依然很難說(shuō)。最近一些電影已經(jīng)開(kāi)始提供點(diǎn)播并獲得一些成功,但這些電影依然是在電影院上映。今年早些時(shí)候,反烏托邦動(dòng)作大片《雪國(guó)列車》(Snowpiercer)頗受好評(píng),前兩個(gè)月通過(guò)點(diǎn)播獲得的收入喜人,甚至超過(guò)了在局部地區(qū)影院上映時(shí)的票房收入。但根據(jù)Deadline網(wǎng)站的數(shù)據(jù),該影片當(dāng)時(shí)通過(guò)點(diǎn)播獲得的收入仍然只有650萬(wàn)美元,另外450萬(wàn)美元來(lái)自票房收入。

????不過(guò),業(yè)內(nèi)此前預(yù)測(cè)《刺殺金正恩》的收入本可遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)1,100萬(wàn)美元。跟蹤票房收入的網(wǎng)站Box Office Mojo預(yù)測(cè),該片的總票房收入大約將為9,000萬(wàn)美元。這是與之前的羅根-弗蘭科喜劇片比較得出的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果,比如2013年的《世界末日》(This is the End)票房收入為1億美元,以及2008年的《菠蘿快車》(Pineapple Express)票房收入約為8,700萬(wàn)美元。

????索尼影業(yè)的一名發(fā)言人向《財(cái)富》(Fortune)補(bǔ)充說(shuō)明:“索尼影業(yè)對(duì)該片沒(méi)有進(jìn)一步的發(fā)行計(jì)劃?!?/p>

????現(xiàn)在,索尼影業(yè)可以支持假日電影季的主要上映影片只剩下一部:重拍的音樂(lè)劇《安妮?紐約奇緣》(Annie),該片將在本周上映。到目前為止,索尼影業(yè)出品的電影在假日季已獲得1.29億美元的收入(假日季收入一般會(huì)超過(guò)好萊塢年度票房收入的20%),而去年假日季的收入為3.22億美元?!洞虤⒔鹫鳌返念A(yù)期票房收入原本可以幫助索尼縮小與往年的收入差距。

????從全年來(lái)看,索尼影業(yè)的總銷售收入增長(zhǎng)約11.5%,這使其成為在2014年實(shí)現(xiàn)年度增長(zhǎng)的為數(shù)不多的主流電影公司之一。整個(gè)電影業(yè)的銷售收入與2013年相比減少了5.5%,好萊塢正寄望于成功的假日電影季,以便其年內(nèi)總收入至少能突破100億美元——這是自2008年以來(lái),每年電影業(yè)都達(dá)到的標(biāo)志線。Box Office Mojo的最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示,整個(gè)行業(yè)距離該目標(biāo)還差3億美元,而現(xiàn)在離1月份僅剩寥寥數(shù)周,這意味著遭受《刺殺金正恩》票房損失沖擊的,將不僅僅是索尼影業(yè)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:南風(fēng)

????審校:Patti

????Seth Rogen, James Franco, and The Interview will not be coming to a theater near you. Not anytime soon, anyway.

????Sony Pictures Entertainment’s decision on Wednesday to cancel the comedy film’s planned opening represents just the latest in a series of dramatic events that started a few weeks ago when hackers breached the studio’s computer system. It was soon followed by those apparently responsible releasing Sony’s internal e-mails and the nation’s largest movie theater owners deciding against showing the movie.

????On Tuesday, a note purportedly written by Guardians of Peace, the hackers who claimed to be behind last month’s cyber attack, suggested a possible series of violent attacks at any cinema screening The Interview — a Sony comedy that portrays an assassination plot against a fictional version of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. (U.S. government officials said Wednesday that North Korea was likely behind the cyber attack, although the country has denied any involvement.)

????Regal Entertainment, AMC Entertainment, Carmike Cinemas and Cineplex Entertainment all confirmed on Wednesday that they were postponing the release of the film due to the threat, while Cinemark reportedly made a similar decision. Those companies are the country’s five largest movie theater operators and they control more than 20,000 screens across the U.S. and Canada.

????Faced with the likelihood that The Interview would find itself locked out of a large chunk of the country’s theaters when it made its Christmas debut next week, Sony opted to scrap the theatrical release altogether. “We are deeply saddened by this brazen effort to suppress the distribution of a movie, and in the process do damage to our company, our employees and the American public,” Sony said in a statement. “We stand by our filmmakers and their right to free expression and are extremely disappointed by this outcome.”

????So, where does that leave Sony?

????The Interview reportedly cost the company more than $40 million to make, including $8.4 million to Rogen, who co-wrote and stars in the film, and another $6.5 million for Franco, the film’s other leading star. (Their salaries were among the reams of data leaked in the wake of the hack.) Of course, that figure doesn’t even include tens of millions of dollars the company would have earmarked for promoting the film — some of which it will likely save now.

????If Sony opts to cancel the release of The Interview altogether — rather than postpone it — then the company will obviously have a difficult time recouping its expenses. Variety reported today that Sony is considering circumventing theaters altogether and giving the film a premium video-on-demand release, which would give Sony a chance to experiment with a new release method without fear of angering the movie theater operators that have already passed on The Interview.

????It is difficult to say how much money Sony could make by selling The Interview on demand directly to viewers’ homes, even with the added (though not necessarily welcome) buzz around the movie as a result of the hack and threats. Some recent films have been made available on-demand – garnering some success – while they are still in theaters. Earlier this year, the critically-acclaimed dystopian action flick Snowpiercer made more through on-demand in its first two months than it did in a limited theater-run. But the film still only pulled in $6.5 million on-demand in that time and another $4.5 million in theaters, according to Deadline.

????The Interview was expected to bring in far more than $11 million, though. Box Office Mojo predicted gross ticket sales of around $90 million for the movie. That’s compared with past Rogen-Franco comedies like 2013’s This is the End, which pulled in $100 million, and 2008’s Pineapple Express, which made about $87 million.

????A Sony Pictures spokesman issued this additional statement to Fortune: “Sony Pictures has no further release plans for the film.”

????Now, Sony Pictures is left with just one major release to bolster its holiday movie season: the remake of the musical Annie, which hits theaters this week. So far, Sony Pictures’ films have pulled in $129 million during the holiday season — a period that generally accounts for more than 20% of Hollywood’s annual ticket sales — compared to $322 million during last year’s holidays. The Interview’s expected ticket sales certainly would have helped Sony make up some of that ground.

????For the full year, Sony Pictures’ gross sales are up about 11.5%, which actually makes it one of the few major studios to post a year-to-year gain in 2014. The movie industry in general has seen sales to this point decline 5.5% from 2013 and Hollywood is counting on a successful holiday movie season to reach at least $10 billion in total gross for the year — a mark the industry has met every year since 2008. Box Office Mojo’s latest numbers show the industry more than $300 million away from that goal with just a few weeks left before January, which means The Interview‘s lost ticket sales could be a blow to more than just Sony.

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