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2015年汽車(chē)業(yè)17個(gè)大預(yù)測(cè):從“無(wú)力”到“無(wú)畏”

2015年汽車(chē)業(yè)17個(gè)大預(yù)測(cè):從“無(wú)力”到“無(wú)畏”

Alex Taylor III 2015年01月08日
在剛剛過(guò)去的2014年,盡管全球汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量保持強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭,但最受媒體關(guān)注卻是此起彼伏的召回事件。那么,于汽車(chē)業(yè)而言,2015年又意味著什么呢?且看業(yè)內(nèi)專(zhuān)家基于各種趨勢(shì)所做的預(yù)測(cè)。

????2014年,盡管汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量自2007年以來(lái)首次超過(guò)1600萬(wàn)輛,但占據(jù)媒體頭條的還是各類(lèi)召回事故。在召回舞臺(tái)上最活躍的是通用汽車(chē)公司,由于不斷曝出點(diǎn)火開(kāi)關(guān)故障,通用今年已經(jīng)召回了幾百萬(wàn)輛汽車(chē)。這家汽車(chē)制造商選擇勇敢曝光自己的失誤,并公開(kāi)發(fā)布了一份自查報(bào)告。而日本氣囊生產(chǎn)商高田公司卻對(duì)“氣囊門(mén)”三緘其口,轉(zhuǎn)而把補(bǔ)救措施留給其深陷困境的客戶(hù)本田和豐田來(lái)實(shí)施。有問(wèn)題的氣囊爆炸后,會(huì)向駕駛室彈出致命碎片。

????在銷(xiāo)量方面,通用和福特的部分市場(chǎng)份額被克萊斯勒蠶食,后者已經(jīng)把Jeep品牌成功提升到此前難以想象的高度。隨后,克萊斯勒將它的光輝歷史拋在身后,將總部搬到荷蘭,并更名為FCA US LLC。

????今年最令人驚喜的消息還包括油價(jià)下跌。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對(duì)油價(jià)下跌的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響也是見(jiàn)仁見(jiàn)智,一方面認(rèn)為消費(fèi)者因此節(jié)省了不少油錢(qián),一方面則認(rèn)為這種趨勢(shì)會(huì)影響石油的開(kāi)采鉆探活動(dòng)。但大家普遍認(rèn)為這會(huì)影響小型車(chē)和混合動(dòng)力車(chē)的銷(xiāo)量。油價(jià)下跌加上車(chē)價(jià)過(guò)高,使得凱迪拉克公司的電動(dòng)轎跑ELR穩(wěn)居2014年最不受歡迎的車(chē)型“寶座”。11月份,這款售價(jià)高達(dá)8萬(wàn)美元的電動(dòng)跑車(chē)只賣(mài)出了155輛。

????那么,于汽車(chē)業(yè)而言,2015年又意味著什么?以下是一些有根據(jù)的猜測(cè)。

????汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量:2015年,汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量將達(dá)到1700萬(wàn)輛,但隨著皮卡和SUV的走俏,各大廠商也會(huì)紛紛調(diào)整產(chǎn)能。低油價(jià)的壓力將導(dǎo)致小型車(chē)的利潤(rùn)更加單薄。

????底特律三巨頭:另兩家底特律車(chē)企仍會(huì)遇到一些磕磕絆絆。通用還要繼續(xù)應(yīng)對(duì)“點(diǎn)火門(mén)”事件的余波,而福特將進(jìn)入該公司有史以來(lái)最激進(jìn)的產(chǎn)品發(fā)布期。

????日本三巨頭:在本田的美國(guó)化管理團(tuán)隊(duì)將新品投放市場(chǎng)之前,該公司還會(huì)原地踏步,尤其是它的謳歌NSX超跑,這款車(chē)型已經(jīng)在各大車(chē)展上亮相好幾年了,但至今仍未上市。本田CEO卡洛斯?高森一邊督促高管團(tuán)隊(duì)努力實(shí)現(xiàn)他的“三年計(jì)劃”目標(biāo),一邊培養(yǎng)繼承人?!镀?chē)新聞》報(bào)道稱(chēng),豐田公司在攜新產(chǎn)品搬離南加州工廠之前,正處于“馬力全開(kāi)”的狀態(tài)。

????德系三巨頭:由于奔馳的幾款低價(jià)產(chǎn)品不可避免地會(huì)損害它“要么最好,要么什么都不是”(the best or nothing)的商譽(yù),該公司也開(kāi)始陷入低迷。而即將推出的新7系轎車(chē)則會(huì)進(jìn)一步鞏固寶馬在美國(guó)富人圈中的地位。另外,起價(jià)30,795美元的奧迪A3,很可能會(huì)使奧迪的銷(xiāo)量較2014年增長(zhǎng)15%,新款Q7也將進(jìn)一步提高奧迪的利潤(rùn)。

????中國(guó)廠商:中國(guó)汽車(chē)進(jìn)軍美國(guó)?巴菲特持股的比亞迪汽車(chē)公司稱(chēng),它將于2015年登陸美國(guó)市場(chǎng),吉利汽車(chē)也將于2016年進(jìn)入美國(guó)市場(chǎng)。不過(guò)自2006年起,我們就一直在聽(tīng)說(shuō)中國(guó)車(chē)企要登陸美國(guó)。中國(guó)汽車(chē)最大的硬傷是做工問(wèn)題。中國(guó)有80多家汽車(chē)廠商,生產(chǎn)的車(chē)型多達(dá)524款,研發(fā)資金鋪得太開(kāi),太單薄,以至于很難獲得有意義的業(yè)績(jī)。

????特斯拉:為了緩解外界對(duì)特斯拉電動(dòng)汽車(chē)充電時(shí)間問(wèn)題的詬病,特斯拉開(kāi)始推出一個(gè)通過(guò)換電池快速充電的充電站網(wǎng)絡(luò)。CEO埃隆?馬斯克肯定希望自己的運(yùn)氣比夏伊?阿加西的Better Place公司好一些,這家公司在2013年破產(chǎn)前做的就是電池更換充電站業(yè)務(wù)。

????換總部:隨著豐田遷至德州,奔馳從新澤西搬往北卡羅來(lái)納州或喬治亞州,斯巴魯也要建它的新總部了。它的一個(gè)選擇是搬到離其客戶(hù)群更近的佛蒙特州。

????CEO:作為汽車(chē)業(yè)新人,通用CEO瑪麗?芭拉和福特CEO馬克?菲爾茲開(kāi)始密切觀注菲亞特和克萊斯勒集團(tuán)CEO的塞爾吉奧?馬基奧尼的一舉一動(dòng)。雖然他的商業(yè)帝國(guó)橫跨歐美兩個(gè)大陸,但馬基奧尼還是成功地把公司的美國(guó)市場(chǎng)份額提高了1.2個(gè)點(diǎn),完全沒(méi)有受到公司最弱的一條產(chǎn)品線以及八速變速箱問(wèn)題的影響。

????獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng):盡管大眾的高爾夫GTI先拔頭籌,但偏向自家人的2015年北美汽車(chē)大獎(jiǎng)的評(píng)審員們還是對(duì)福特的野馬和F-150皮卡不吝溢美之辭。

????皮卡大戰(zhàn):如果把得獎(jiǎng)的問(wèn)題拋在一邊,福特的全鋁皮卡生產(chǎn)起來(lái)很不容易,賣(mài)得也比較慢,這就為快速崛起的道奇公羊(Dodge Ram)1500提供了機(jī)會(huì)。同時(shí),日產(chǎn)也試圖忘掉該公司第一款全尺寸皮卡,也就是采用雙拖斗造型的第二代Titan皮卡的失利。汽車(chē)業(yè)老將約翰?克拉福西克向《汽車(chē)新聞》透露了這個(gè)行業(yè)的最大秘密:在5萬(wàn)美元以上的市場(chǎng)區(qū)間,平價(jià)品牌的皮卡和SUV的銷(xiāo)量要超過(guò)德系豪華品牌。

????2015年最需要迎頭趕上的品牌:由于產(chǎn)品線陳舊,大眾今年的銷(xiāo)量下降了11%,影響了費(fèi)迪南德?皮切的“稱(chēng)霸全球”計(jì)劃。沃爾沃的銷(xiāo)量則下跌了17%,自從被中國(guó)車(chē)企收購(gòu)后,該公司至今還沒(méi)有任何進(jìn)步。

????2015年風(fēng)頭最勁的品牌:在新款切諾基的拉動(dòng)下,Jeep在2014年的銷(xiāo)量驚人地拉高了44%,而斯巴魯?shù)匿N(xiāo)量則靜悄悄地提高了21%,現(xiàn)已成為美國(guó)第十大最受歡迎的汽車(chē)品牌。

????替代燃料:自從柴油車(chē)于上世紀(jì)50年代從歐洲進(jìn)入美國(guó)以來(lái),人們對(duì)柴油車(chē)的熱情首次冷卻殆盡,取而代之的是馬力高得嚇人的雪佛蘭CamaroZL1(580匹馬力),和707匹馬力的道奇挑戰(zhàn)者SRT地獄火等車(chē)型。另外,續(xù)航里程更長(zhǎng)的燃料電池汽車(chē)也開(kāi)始登上舞臺(tái),從電池動(dòng)力汽車(chē)那里搶走了不少風(fēng)頭。

????科技:凱迪拉克將在汽車(chē)的后視鏡添加高清視頻功能,其視野要比傳統(tǒng)的后視鏡開(kāi)擴(kuò)四倍,因?yàn)樗軌蛟谧畲蟪潭壬蠝p少了車(chē)柱和乘客對(duì)視線的影響,對(duì)于上了年紀(jì)的凱迪拉克車(chē)主和頸椎不好的人來(lái)說(shuō),這的確是個(gè)福音。下一個(gè)即將被廣泛采用的技術(shù),則是讓汽車(chē)在倒車(chē)時(shí),能夠發(fā)出像垃圾車(chē)那樣的“滴滴聲”。

????自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē):研究人員正在研究能讓汽車(chē)自動(dòng)倒車(chē)入庫(kù)的設(shè)備,讓你甚至不必坐在車(chē)?yán)锞湍芡瓿傻管?chē)。這樣你就不必在不小心刮蹭到別人的車(chē)時(shí),往人家的雨刮器下面留張字條,并附上你的電話號(hào)碼了。

????經(jīng)銷(xiāo)商:經(jīng)銷(xiāo)商們正在努力精簡(jiǎn)購(gòu)車(chē)的文書(shū)手續(xù)以及時(shí)間。這會(huì)使他們留出更多的時(shí)間向消費(fèi)者推銷(xiāo)延長(zhǎng)質(zhì)保、噴漆、織物保護(hù)、防銹等附加服務(wù)。

????老爺車(chē):由于今年在一個(gè)海外小島上發(fā)現(xiàn)了一大批塵封50年之久的老爺車(chē),導(dǎo)致現(xiàn)在二戰(zhàn)后的老爺車(chē)的供給充足,價(jià)格也顯著下降。收藏家們尤其喜歡Packards、Studebakers、Hudsons、Nashes、Kaisers和Henry J’s等型號(hào)的老爺車(chē)。更令人吃驚的是這批老爺車(chē)的車(chē)況都十分良好,能夠滿足日常使用。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:樸成奎

????審校:任文科

????Despite car and truck sales that motored past 16 million for the first time since 2007, recalls dominated the news for most of the year. General Motors GM 1.42% held center stage, dealing with cascading revelations about faulty ignition switches and recalling millions of vehicles. While GM opted for something approaching full disclosure of its missteps , publishing an report into company-wide fumbles, Japanese airbag maker Tanaka chose to stonewall. It left any remedies up to its beleaguered customers, notably Honda and Toyota. They are the ones who deal with the fallout of exploding safety devices that fatally fired shrapnel throughout the passenger compartment.

????On the sales front, General Motors and Ford F -0.13% lost market share to Chrysler, which leveraged its Jeep brand to previously unimagined heights – and then, metaphorically left its heritage behind when it established legal domicile in the Netherlands and changed its name to FCA US LLC.

????Among the year’s biggest surprises was the plunge in gasoline pries. Economists differed on the economic impact—money in the pockets of consumers offset by declines in exploration and drilling activity—but everyone agreed that it was bearish for small cars and hybrids. The combination of cheap gas and a steep sticker price made the Cadillac ELR the runaway winner of the most disliked car of the year award. Only 155 of the Volt-based $80,000 cars found buyers in November.

????So what does 2015 portend? Here are some educated guesses.

????Auto sales: Car sales reach 17 million but manufacturers scramble to adjust capacity as trucks and SUVs soar in popularity. Pressure to hold down corporate fuel averages drives margins on small cars far below break-even.

????Detroit Three: The other two Michigan-based manufacturers still face bumps. General Motors copes with continued fallout from its ignition switch recall while Ford fights through the most aggressive launch period in the company’s history.

????Japanese Three: Honda treads water while it waits for bold new designs from its Americanized management team to reach market, particularly the Acura NSX super car, which has been on the auto show circuit now for several years. Focused now on his legacy, CEO Carlos Ghosn drives executives even harder to meet targets in his latest three-year plan while he grooms a successor. As for Toyota, Automotive News declares that it is firing on “all cylinders” before its move from Southern California with fresh products in key segments.

????German Three:Mercedes-Benz begins to sag as new lower-priced Benz’s inevitably erode its once invincible “the best or nothing” status. At BMW, imminent arrival of a new 7-series cements its status as the preferred brand of Scarsdale, Shaker Heights, and Santa Monica. A new A3, starting at $30, 795, should nicely lift Audi’s sales beyond 2014’s 15% climb, and a new Q7 SUV should nicely lift profits.

????Chinese manufacturers:Coming to the U.S.? Warren Buffett’s BYD says it is arriving in 2015 and Geely in 2016 but we’ve been hearing that someone was coming since at 2006. The refinement of Chinese cars is the issue. With more than 80 local automakers producing 524 different models in China, R&D money is spread too thinly to produce meaningful results.

????Tesla:In an effort to blunt criticism about slow refueling times for battery-powered cars, Tesla TSLA -1.54% starts to roll out of a network of battery-swap stations. CEO Elon Musk must hope he can outdo Shai Agassi’s Better Place, which tried to build a whole company around battery-swaps before going bankrupt in 2013.

????Headquarter shifts: With Toyota leaving for Texas and Mercedes headed toward North Carolina or Georgia from New Jersey, look for Subaru to chart its own path when it builds its new headquarters. One option: Moving closer to its customers by relocating in Vermont.

????CEOs: Newbies Mary Barra at GM and Mark Fields at Ford start playing close attention to the moves made by FCA’s Sergio Marchionne. Despite running his growing empire on two continents, Marchionne tacked on a U.S market share gain of 1.2 points, unhindered by one of the weakest product lineups in the business and troubles with his much heralded eight-speed transmission.

????Awards: Despite early wins for VW’s Golf GTI, the Detroit-centric jurors of the North American Car and Truck award 2015 prizes to Ford’s Mustang as well as Ford’s F-150 pickup truck.

????Truck wars: Awards aside, Ford’s aluminum pickup is hard to build and slow to sell, leaving an opening for Ram’s fast-rising 1500 while Nissan tries to forget the failure of its first full-size truck when it launches the second-generation Titan with the biggest of big rig styling. The industry’s biggest secret is revealed by veteran executive John Krafcik in Automotive News: In the over $50,000 category, pickups and SUVs distributed through non-premium dealers outsell German luxury brands.

????Brands with the most to make up for in 2015:Volkswagen, whose stale product line depressed sales by 11%, thereby delaying Ferdinand Piech’s plans for global supremacy, and Volvo, down 17%, which has yet to make any progress under its Chinese owner.

????Brands with the most incentive to coast in 2015:Jeep, which must be exhausted after lifting sales an astonishing 44% on the back of the new Cherokee, and Subaru, now the 10th most popular brand in America after improving its sales by 21% in its usual fashion: quietly.

????Alternative fuels: For the first time since diesel-powered cars from Europe started arriving here in the 1950s, old first-person accounts about the joys of driving a diesel fall off to near zero. They are replaced by new first-person accounts about the joys of driving cars with ridiculously high horsepower like the 580-hp Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 and Dodge’s Challenger SRT Hellfire with 707 hp. Elsewhere: fuel-cell cars with their longer cruising range move center-stage, stealing the limelight from battery-powered cars.

????Technology:Cadillac will introduce high-resolution video streaming in the rearview mirror, which improves the field of vision by about four times greater than a traditional mirror by removing obstructions like pillars and passengers. Just the thing for aging Cadillac drivers with stiff necks. Coming next: a “beep, beep, beep” signal like that used by garbage trucks whenever the car is driven in reverse.

????Autonomous cars: Researchers are working on devices that will automatically park your car in a parking lot without you being in, or near, the car. It will also slip a note under the wipers of the car next to it with your phone number and insurance carrier in case of any scratches.

????Dealers: Car dealers work toward reducing the paperwork involved in buying a car and the hours it takes to fill it out. That will give them more time to devote to upselling add-ons such as extended warranties, paint and fabric protection, and rust-proofing.

????Classic cars:Prices plummet as an enormous supply of post-war classics, hidden away on an off-shore island, becomes available for the first time in 50 years. Collectors are especially eager to find Packards, Studebakers, Hudsons, Nashes, Kaisers, and Henry J’s. More’s the surprise because all of the cars are in running condition and are used as daily drivers.

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