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隨著火箭發(fā)射變便宜:500強(qiáng)公司將競逐“太空資源”

隨著火箭發(fā)射變便宜:500強(qiáng)公司將競逐“太空資源”

Clay Dillow 2015年02月09日
SpaceX公司開發(fā)的可循環(huán)飛行火箭技術(shù)或許還未成功,但埃隆?穆斯克為大幅降低發(fā)射成本所做的努力,將對眾多行業(yè)產(chǎn)生重大影響。展望未來,唯有那些竭力轉(zhuǎn)型為“航空公司”,從而及時獲取精確信息的500強(qiáng)企業(yè),才能在21世紀(jì)的激烈競爭中領(lǐng)先一步。
????SpaceX公司的“草蜢”火箭足有10層樓高,它是該公司研發(fā)可循環(huán)飛行火箭技術(shù)上的又一次突破。
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????“這次離成功也就一步之遙?!?/p>

????請留意SpaceX公司創(chuàng)始人埃隆?穆斯克說的這句話。1月初,該公司一枚一級火箭助推器拖著熊熊烈焰,墜落在大西洋的一個鉆井平臺上,他隨后發(fā)表了一番“行動總結(jié)”。它聽起來倒是很符合這位億萬富翁一貫的語言風(fēng)格——很有喜感地輕描淡寫。這條發(fā)布于Twitter的評論還附帶一段視頻。從中可以看出,這枚火箭降落得太快太陡,隨即爆炸起火,變成熊熊火球。這與穆斯克和SpaceX公司當(dāng)初計(jì)劃的軟著陸相去甚遠(yuǎn)。

????多數(shù)媒體認(rèn)為,這次發(fā)射徹底失敗,但穆斯克認(rèn)為它“接近成功”。熟知民用航天業(yè)的專家則給出了一個恰當(dāng)評論:很明顯, SpaceX公司將在2015年竭力回收一枚一級火箭助推器和它的9個火箭引擎,以重新使用。一旦成功,這將使得航天發(fā)射的成本減半,從而徹底顛覆商業(yè)發(fā)射業(yè)。

????火箭發(fā)射(及墜毀)時驚心動魄的轟然巨響背后,隱藏著巨大的成本,而這正是Space X公司的可循環(huán)火箭技術(shù)不僅將影響航空業(yè),還將影響通訊和衛(wèi)星成像等其它行業(yè)的原因所在。依靠這種技術(shù),太空探索的成本可能會從現(xiàn)在的6500萬到7000萬美元降至3000萬美元左右,讓那些此前從未考慮過這種事情的企業(yè)和行業(yè)也能嘗試一下。

????NewSpace Global公司是一家航天信息供應(yīng)商,該公司首席執(zhí)行官迪克?戴維稱:“一旦發(fā)射成本下降,新客戶就會涌現(xiàn)。但很多潛在感興趣的客戶直到現(xiàn)在都還沒意識到,太空探索將對其商業(yè)模式產(chǎn)生什么影響?!?/p>

????SpaceX公司想回收一級火箭助推器的原因很簡單:推進(jìn)器的研發(fā)和制造過程都耗費(fèi)了巨資,燃料用盡后,它們就會被當(dāng)做垃圾丟棄。如果該公司能完整回收推進(jìn)器,翻修后重復(fù)使用,就能顯著降低航天業(yè)歷來被認(rèn)為高不可攀的巨額成本。

????不過人們?nèi)杂泻芏嘁蓡枺罕热纾抟ǘ嗌馘X?一枚推進(jìn)器能重復(fù)使用多少次?而航天業(yè)分析師認(rèn)為,成本還會不斷下降。穆斯克曾表示,他將全力以赴,最終讓發(fā)射價(jià)格降到1000萬美元以下。但僅僅讓發(fā)射成本減半,就會帶動發(fā)射服務(wù)的需求大幅增長,從而使太空軌道迎來大批新成員。

????這些情況會對《財(cái)富》500強(qiáng)公司產(chǎn)生何種影響還有待觀察,但近期肯定會出現(xiàn)兩大新動向。首先,國防、航天及科技咨詢公司金牛座集團(tuán)執(zhí)行合伙人卡瑞薩?克里斯滕森稱,企業(yè)及個人所獲得的航天技術(shù)服務(wù)會變得更加質(zhì)優(yōu)價(jià)廉,也更容易獲取。這也許不是什么巨大的突破,但一定是意義深遠(yuǎn)的進(jìn)步。目前凡是由軌道衛(wèi)星采集并傳送的通訊、影像及其他數(shù)據(jù),各公司都要花大價(jià)錢才能獲得。在某些行業(yè),衛(wèi)星服務(wù)的高昂成本使一些小型公司無法與大型企業(yè)有效抗衡??死锼闺Q:“由航天技術(shù)提供的更便宜、更先進(jìn)、也更優(yōu)質(zhì)的服務(wù)將是一樁大買賣。價(jià)格更低的衛(wèi)星服務(wù)帶來的好處不容小覷。”

????其次,大批新面孔和大量資本將涌入軌道領(lǐng)域——其實(shí)已經(jīng)是這樣了。就在上周,SpaceX公司宣布將在未來五年打造一個覆蓋全球的微型衛(wèi)星網(wǎng)絡(luò)。本周該公司又宣布,谷歌公司和投資銀行富達(dá)投資公司已對該項(xiàng)目投資10億美元,使SpaceX公司估值達(dá)到100億美元。另一家名為OneWeb的衛(wèi)星網(wǎng)絡(luò)初創(chuàng)公司——由去年九月從谷歌離職的前衛(wèi)星網(wǎng)絡(luò)項(xiàng)目負(fù)責(zé)人格里戈?惠勒創(chuàng)立——上周也宣布,該公司已獲得理查德?布蘭森的維珍集團(tuán)和高通公司的投資,并且將打造自己的衛(wèi)星網(wǎng)絡(luò)。這個耗資20億美元的項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃從2018年開始發(fā)射648顆小型衛(wèi)星,每顆重285磅,而且每顆都需要進(jìn)入一個運(yùn)行軌道。

????分析師們樂觀預(yù)計(jì),航天發(fā)射將會創(chuàng)造各種新機(jī)會,這反過來又會進(jìn)一步促進(jìn)航天領(lǐng)域的投資。

????“Close, but no cigar. This time.”

????Behold the words of SpaceX founder Elon Musk, offering a post-op summary of the fiery crash-landing of one of his company’s first stage rocket boosters aboard a floating barge in the Atlantic earlier this month. It smacked of the billionaire entrepreneur’s typical comedic understatement. Video accompanying the comment, delivered in a tweet, shows the rocket coming in too fast and too steep before exploding in a magnificent fireball. It was a far cry from the soft landing Musk and SpaceX had planned.

????Most of the press called it a failure. Musk called it “close.” Experts familiar with the commercial spaceflight industry are calling it what it is: evidence that 2015 will be the year SpaceX manages to successfully bring a first stage rocket booster and its nine rocket engines safely back to Earth for reuse, potentially cutting the cost of space launch in half and upending the commercial launch industry.

????But lost in the whiz-bang awesomeness of rocket launches (and crashes) is the way SpaceX’s reusable rocket technology could impact industries beyond those associated with space, such as telecommunications and imaging. The cost of space access could drop from its current range of between $65 million and $70 million to something more like $30 million, or even $20 million, putting it within reach of companies and industries that couldn’t consider it before.

????“When launch costs drop, new customers will emerge,” says Dick “Rocket” David, CEO of space industry information provider NewSpace Global. “But most of the customers that will be interested don’t even realize today what impact access to space will have on their business models.”

????SpaceX wanted to bring its first stage booster back to Earth for a simple reason: the rocket boosters that are typically jettisoned after their fuel runs out cost millions of dollars to develop and manufacture. If the company can return a stage to Earth intact for refurbishment and reuse, it can dramatically reduce what has long been considered a cost of doing business.

????There remain questions: how much it costs to refurbish a rocket booster and how many times a single booster can be reused, for example. And space industry analysts think costs could go lower still. Musk has suggested that he’s eventually shooting for a sub-$10 million launch price. But merely halving the cost of launch could stoke increased demand for launch services and bring a flood of new entrants into the orbital domain.

????How all this impacts the average Fortune 500 firm remains to be seen, but two things are almost certain to happen in the near term. First, the services that companies and individuals currently get from space will become better, less expensive, and more accessible, says Carissa Christensen, managing partner at defense, space, and technology consultancy Tauri Group. That’s not necessarily a groundbreaking development, but it’s certainly a meaningful one. Companies spend a whole lot of money on communications, imagery, and other data collected and relayed by orbiting satellites. In some industries, the high cost of satellite services keep smaller companies from competing as effectively with their larger counterparts. “Cheaper, cooler, and better things from space is kind of a big deal,” Christensen says. “The benefit of much cheaper satellite services is not trivial.”

????Second, a huge number of new entrants and new dollars will pile into the orbital domain—and in fact already are. Just last week, SpaceX announced plans to build out a network of micro-satellites over the next five years that would blanket the globe in internet. This week the company announced that Google GOOG -3.10% and investment bank Fidelity FNF -0.80% have invested $1 billion in the project,valuing SpaceX at $10 billion. Another satellite internet startup known as OneWeb—launched by Google’s former satellite internet project lead, Greg Wyler, who left the company in September—also announced last week that it has secured funding from Richard Branson’s Virgin Group and Qualcomm QCOM -1.16% to create a satellite network of its own. The $2 billion project plans to launch 648 small satellites weighing 285 pounds each starting in 2018, each of which will require a ride into an orbit.

????Analysts are optimistic that space launch activity will create new opportunities that could in turn further boost investment in the space.

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