馬克?安德森:2015年可能發(fā)生的科技和商業(yè)大事件
????沒人能像馬克?安德森那樣精準地洞見未來。他對經(jīng)濟與科技交叉領(lǐng)域的預(yù)言一直受到硅谷密切關(guān)注。他既能放眼全球,預(yù)判即將橫空出世的“下一個大事件”和熱點地區(qū),又能夠洞察哪些熱門產(chǎn)品和國家行將過氣。由安德森領(lǐng)銜的“戰(zhàn)略新聞服務(wù)”公司(Strategic News Service),是一家專為行業(yè)領(lǐng)袖和風(fēng)險投資家服務(wù)的通訊出版商。該公司宣稱擁有眾多大牌讀者,比如戴爾公司首席執(zhí)行官邁克爾?戴爾、特斯拉公司首席執(zhí)行官埃倫?穆斯克和微軟創(chuàng)始人比爾?蓋茨。最近,在舊金山的一個聚會上,馬克?安德森就2015年的科技走勢發(fā)表了他的預(yù)言。主要觀點如下: ????技術(shù)預(yù)言: ????? 像比特幣這樣的數(shù)字貨幣將層出不窮,同時也會走入絕境。貨幣總是需要一個國家的經(jīng)濟實力和軍事力量作保障才能贏得人們的信任。 ????? “網(wǎng)絡(luò)中立性”,即互聯(lián)網(wǎng)服務(wù)供應(yīng)商和政府應(yīng)平等對待所有數(shù)據(jù)這一理念,將繼續(xù)存活。 ????? 模式識別將成為大數(shù)據(jù)的真正目標。將有大批新工具和芯片被開發(fā)出來,讓人們收集數(shù)據(jù),識別此前無法洞察的趨勢,從而引發(fā)一場計算革命。 ????? 在多家公司近期接連遭受黑客攻擊后,網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全將會成為首席執(zhí)行官們關(guān)注的頭等大事。由于缺乏保護的網(wǎng)絡(luò)系統(tǒng)可能造成的損失,遠遠超過打造一個安全網(wǎng)絡(luò)所需的成本,各大公司將不再削減一緊再緊的安全開支,轉(zhuǎn)而加大投資。 ????? 虛擬現(xiàn)實領(lǐng)域?qū)⑷杂蓨蕵窐I(yè)主導(dǎo)。盡管Facebook公司斥資20億美元收購了Oculus公司,但能讓人們沉浸于3D世界的頭戴式裝備離日常生活仍遠。 ????? 亞馬遜公司前景不妙。由于在電子書定價問題上與Hachette出版集團爭執(zhí)不下,再加上前途未卜的無人機服務(wù)和遭遇慘敗的Fire手機業(yè)務(wù),這家電商巨頭很可能遭受巨額虧損。 ????? 聯(lián)網(wǎng)家電(比如一臺可以讓你發(fā)微博的冰箱)將進入市場,但依然不會成為主流。人們真正想要的不過是低廉的能源成本,一大堆電視屏幕和一個遙控器。在許多人看來,讓一些不會說話的設(shè)備相互交流太復(fù)雜,似乎沒有傳統(tǒng)家電那么可靠。 ????? 蘋果公司的數(shù)字支付服務(wù)Apple Pay將大獲成功,在市場上確立領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位。 ????? 計算機加密將依然是主流趨勢。 ????? 個人保健、健身和生活方式設(shè)備將會融合,市場上將會涌現(xiàn)大量手表和健身腕帶。智能服裝(設(shè)想一下:和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)相連、能監(jiān)測血流量的襪子)由于其價格和可靠性問題,仍將屬于小眾產(chǎn)品。 |
????No one does predictions like Mark Anderson, whose forecasts about the intersection of the economy and technology are closely followed in Silicon Valley. He has a global view of what’s the next big thing and place along an eye for hot products and countries that about to take a dive. Anderson is head of Strategic News Service, a newsletter publisher for industry leaders and venture capitalists. It claims a readership that includes Dell CEO, Michael Dell, Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Microsoft’s Bill Gates. Recently, Mark Anderson listed his predictions for 2015 during a gathering in San Francisco. Here are his key points: ????Tech predictions: ????? Digital currencies like bitcoin will multiply and go nowhere. Currencies require the economic strength and military power of a nation to garner people’s trust. ????? Net neutrality, the idea that Internet service providers and governments should treat all data equally, will survive. ????? Pattern recognition will become the real goal of big data. A host of new tools and chips will be developed, to let people gather data and pick out trends that they would otherwise be unable to see, setting off a revolution in computing. ????? Following the recent series of corporate hackings, security will become a priority on CEO agendas. Companies will reverse the downward spending trend on security as the cost of poorly protected computer systems outweigh the cost of building secure ones. ????? Virtual reality will remain the domain of entertainment. Headsets that immerse people in a 3D world will not become a feature of everyday life despite Facebook’s $2 billion acquisition of Oculus, a company that makes virtual reality headsets. ????? Expect Amazon to stumble. Between the brawl with publisher Hachette over e-book prices, drones, and the Amazon Fire phone’s flop, losses are heading Amazon’s way. ????? Networks for devices connected to the internet (think refrigerators that let you tweet) will get off of their launchpads but remain niche. All people really want is low energy costs, lots of TVs, and one remote. People don’t want complexity replacing reliability and dumb things talking to other dumb things. ????? Digital payment service Apple Pay will succeed, establishing it’s leadership in the market. ????? Computer encryption will continue to expand as a major trend. ????? Personal health and fitness and lifestyle devices will merge, and there will be a plethora of watches and fitness bands on the market. Intelligent clothing, (think: socks that are connected to the internet and can monitor your blood flow), will stay niche due to price and inconsistency. |
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