????不容否認(rèn)，自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)離我們已經(jīng)不遠(yuǎn)了。專(zhuān)家表示，能實(shí)現(xiàn)部分自動(dòng)駕駛的汽車(chē)將于2017年上路；不到10年，完全自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)將開(kāi)始穿梭在高速公路和大街小巷。

????等那一天真的來(lái)了，雙車(chē)車(chē)庫(kù)會(huì)有什么樣的遭遇？根據(jù)密歇根大學(xué)運(yùn)輸研究院的一項(xiàng)最新研究，到時(shí)我們可能就不再需要這種車(chē)庫(kù)了。

????該研究指出：如果自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)成為常態(tài)，兩位家庭成員就可以同時(shí)使用一輛車(chē)。比如杰克和丹妮是一對(duì)夫婦，居住在一座中型城市的市中心。他們的自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)可以載著杰克到郊外上班，然后返回他們的公寓，載著丹妮去城里的另一個(gè)地方上班。兩人無(wú)需分別開(kāi)一輛汽車(chē)上班，也不必再為拼車(chē)之類(lèi)的麻煩事操心，而是可以共用一輛自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)。

????該報(bào)告指出：“家庭汽車(chē)擁有量的減少和用車(chē)模式的轉(zhuǎn)變，在最極端的假設(shè)下，可能使家庭汽車(chē)的平均擁有量降低43%（每個(gè)家庭從擁有2.1輛車(chē)下降到1.2輛）。

????不過(guò)正如上文強(qiáng)調(diào)的，這只是最極端的假設(shè)。該研究項(xiàng)目的首席作者布蘭登?舒特勒認(rèn)為，受一些因素的影響，機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)保有量的實(shí)際減少幅度可能顯著低于這個(gè)比率。比如，美國(guó)的有些州可能會(huì)出臺(tái)法律，禁止無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē)單獨(dú)上路，而是要求必須有一名駕駛員坐在車(chē)內(nèi)。

????即使無(wú)人駕駛汽車(chē)已經(jīng)開(kāi)始潛入主流，但這種改變也不會(huì)一夜之間發(fā)生。舒特勒表示，要淘汰現(xiàn)有數(shù)量的汽車(chē)需要很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間，所以要想看到路面汽車(chē)數(shù)量明顯減少這一幕，可能還得等上“幾十年”。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：樸成奎

????審校：任文科

????There’s no use denying it — autonomous cars are coming. Experts says that partially autonomous cars will be on the road by 2017, and that within a decade, fully autonomous vehicles will be zooming on highways and through our neighborhoods.

????When this day comes, though, what will become of the two car garage? It may not be needed anymore, according to a new study from the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute.

????The study essentially posits this: if autonomous cars become the norm, they could be shared by two people in the same household. Say Jack and Diane are married and live in the center of a medium-sized city, one where there is no major public transportation to speak of. Their self-driving car could take Jack to his job in the suburbs, then return to the apartment, where Diane would get in and be shuttled to her job in another part of town. The two no longer need their own vehicles to get to work, and can share the one autonomous car without having to deal with car pooling or going out of their way.

????“This reduction in ownership and an accompanying shift to vehicle sharing within each household, in the most extreme hypothetical scenario, could reduce average ownership rates by 43% (from 2.1 to 1.2 vehicles per household,)” the report says.

????As noted, though, this is just the most extreme possibility. Brandon Schoettle, the lead writer of the study, said the actual reduction in car ownership could be much less than that, depending on a few factors. For instance, states may pass laws that prohibit such an arrangement by requiring autonomous cars to only operating with a human inside.

????And even though driverless cars are starting to creep into the mainstream, don’t expect this change to happen overnight. Schoettle said turning over the existing fleet of cars would take time, so any reduction in the number of cars on the road could take “decades.”