????還記得去年9月份iPhone6上市時(shí)，那些攜帶成捆的現(xiàn)金，排著長(zhǎng)隊(duì)，大肆搶購(gòu)的顧客嗎？

????這一幕有可能再次出現(xiàn)。

????調(diào)研公司Asymco的霍雷斯?德迪歐在上周四在其播客上表示：“既然iPhone發(fā)售時(shí)出現(xiàn)了這樣的情景，我們肯定也能在黃金版Apple Watch發(fā)售時(shí)看到類似狀況?！?/p>

????大多數(shù)分析師預(yù)計(jì)，鋁金屬和不銹鋼表殼的Apple Watch需求最大，它們的起售價(jià)分別為349美元和549美元。不過(guò)德迪歐認(rèn)為，華爾街可能低估了1萬(wàn)美元黃金版Apple Watch的無(wú)形魅力，尤其是送禮傳統(tǒng)悠久的中國(guó)。

????黃金版Apple Watch還有其他玄機(jī)。不像勞力士（Rolex）等其他手表的價(jià)格從幾千美元到幾萬(wàn)美元不等，Apple Watch在全球市場(chǎng)都采用固定價(jià)格，其官網(wǎng)已經(jīng)完全公布。

????德迪歐表示：“這就像貨幣一樣?！笨紤]到各國(guó)稅率不同，你可以較為精確地計(jì)算出他所說(shuō)的“全球套利機(jī)會(huì)”。

????Remember the customers carrying bundles of cash who queued up last September to buy as many iPhones as Apple would sell them?

????It could happen again.

????“We saw this with the iPhone,” said Asymco’s Horace Dediu in a podcast recorded Thursday. “We’ll see it in spades with the gold Apple Watch.”

????Most analysts expect demand will be strongest for Apple’s aluminum and steel watches, which start at $349 and $549, respectively. Dediu believes Wall Street may be underestimating the intangible appeal of a $10,000 gold watch. Especially one given as a gift. Especially in China, with its rich tradition of over-the-top gift giving.

????The gold watch has something else going for it. Unlike the value of a Rolex, say, which can range from a few thousand dollars to tens of thousands, the price of the Apple Watch in each of its global markets is fixed; it’s listed on the website.

????“It’s like currency,” says Dediu. Factor in local taxes, and you can calculate with some precision what he calls the “global arbitrage opportunities.”

????比如說(shuō)，黃金版Apple Watch的入門款——38毫米18K玫瑰金表殼搭配白色運(yùn)動(dòng)型表帶在美國(guó)的零售價(jià)為1萬(wàn)美元。而中國(guó)網(wǎng)站上的同款手表售價(jià)為7.48萬(wàn)人民幣（合12,045美元）。中國(guó)大陸對(duì)它征收了17%的增值稅，不過(guò)香港地區(qū)沒有。

????德迪歐說(shuō)：“如果有人把這塊手表從美國(guó)走私到中國(guó)，完全可以賺回他的往返機(jī)票錢，還有盈余。”

????德迪歐說(shuō)，直到今年1月，在iPhone 6 Plus發(fā)布近5個(gè)月之后，波士頓仍然有顧客在排隊(duì)購(gòu)買這款手機(jī)。他說(shuō)：“其中主要以中國(guó)人居多，他們把它當(dāng)生意來(lái)做?！?/p>

????正如去年九月在蘋果商店外拍攝的一部紀(jì)錄片所述，這門生意可能不太好做，到4月時(shí)甚至?xí)y，因?yàn)槟菚r(shí)候買家需要以1萬(wàn)美元為單位來(lái)攜帶現(xiàn)金。

????這部分現(xiàn)金幾乎會(huì)直接成為蘋果公司的利潤(rùn)。德迪歐估計(jì)，1萬(wàn)美元的黃金版Apple Watch利潤(rùn)高達(dá)90%。

????他說(shuō)：“如果在頭幾個(gè)月，黃金版Apple Watch的需求遠(yuǎn)超我們的預(yù)計(jì)，我并不會(huì)感到吃驚。它們會(huì)一直保持脫銷狀態(tài)?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

????審校：任文科

????For example, the entry level gold watch — 38mm 18-Karat Rose Gold with a white sport band — retails in the U.S. for $10.000. The same watch is listed on Apple’s Chinese website for RMB 74,800 ($12,045). Beijing imposes a 17% value added tax. Hong Kong does not.

????“If someone smuggles one of these into China,” says Dediu, “they’ll pay for their flight ticket and then some.”

????He reports that in Boston there were still queues for the iPhone 6 Plus in January, almost five months after it launched. “They’re mostly Chinese,” he says. “They’re doing it as a business.”

????It can be a rough business, as a documentary film shot outside Apple Stores in New York City last September demonstrated. It might be even rougher in April, when buyers could be carrying bundles of cash in units of $10,000.

????That’s cash that will go almost directly to Apple’s bottom line. Dediu estimates that the margin on a $10,000 gold watch could be as high as 90%.

????“I wouldn’t be surprised if in the first few months the demand for gold is far, far higher than we imagined,” he says. “They’ll just be out of stock, permanently.”