????面對(duì)電池技術(shù)迅速發(fā)展帶來(lái)的威脅，特斯拉設(shè)在內(nèi)華達(dá)州的超級(jí)電池工廠（Gigafactory）籠罩在一片陰云之中。盡管新技術(shù)面臨諸多障礙，但如果在五年內(nèi)出現(xiàn)既實(shí)用又遠(yuǎn)好于現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)品的電池，特斯拉斥資50億美元新建的建鋰離子聚合物電池工廠就可能變成巨大負(fù)擔(dān)。

????今年1月份，富士色素株式會(huì)社（并非富士子公司）宣布，已在鋁空氣電池技術(shù)上取得重大突破。與特斯拉即將量產(chǎn)的鋰聚電池相比，鋁空氣電池理論容量多出40倍以上。而且富士色素表示，將在今年底前實(shí)現(xiàn)項(xiàng)目商業(yè)化。這意味著，定于2016年投產(chǎn)的特斯拉超級(jí)電池工廠可能從一開(kāi)始就處于落后位置，該廠預(yù)計(jì)還需要7-10年才能達(dá)到設(shè)計(jì)產(chǎn)能并收回成本。

????電池領(lǐng)域的創(chuàng)新遵循的規(guī)律基本一致：電池都有陰極和陽(yáng)極，靠陰陽(yáng)極之間的電解質(zhì)發(fā)生反應(yīng)產(chǎn)生電流。鋁空氣電池以水為電解質(zhì)，通過(guò)氧氣和鋁的反應(yīng)產(chǎn)生電流。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的鋁-空氣反應(yīng)會(huì)消耗鋁陽(yáng)極，因此必須替換陽(yáng)極，并不能簡(jiǎn)單充電了事。富士色素表示，通過(guò)在關(guān)鍵位置放置陶瓷和碳精片隔層，即可抑制腐蝕和副產(chǎn)品，這樣鋁空氣電池只需加水就能多次充電。

????美國(guó)西北大學(xué)材料科學(xué)和工程學(xué)教授馬克?赫爾薩姆指出，如果富士色素真能完成鋁空氣電池的商業(yè)化，“非常了不起”。不過(guò)他認(rèn)為還有一些問(wèn)題沒(méi)有解決，比如鋁空氣電池的體積在使用過(guò)程中會(huì)縮小，可能出現(xiàn)破裂，因此很難集成到無(wú)法容錯(cuò)的汽車系統(tǒng)中。

????在一封電子郵件中，富士色素鋁空氣電池項(xiàng)目首席研究員森亮平的態(tài)度就略顯謹(jǐn)慎，不似公司1月公告中那般樂(lè)觀。他寫(xiě)道：“我們?nèi)蕴幱陂_(kāi)發(fā)階段，也許近期內(nèi)可能大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)?！?/p>

????不過(guò)，苦心鉆研先進(jìn)電池技術(shù)的并不只有富士色素一家。以色列公司Phinergy也在追尋鋁空氣電池夢(mèng)。美國(guó)初創(chuàng)企業(yè)PathionandSakti 3則著眼于更激進(jìn)的創(chuàng)新，他們的想法是用陶瓷或水晶代替液態(tài)電解質(zhì)，制造固態(tài)電池；該公司已成功展示了一種新電池，能量密度為每升1000瓦時(shí)，一旦啟用可將特斯拉的行駛里程增加一倍以上。PathionandSakti 3首席執(zhí)行官邁克爾?利德?tīng)栴A(yù)計(jì)，固態(tài)電池技術(shù)可在兩年內(nèi)投放市場(chǎng)。

????當(dāng)然，特斯拉的電池工廠主要任務(wù)不是生產(chǎn)最先進(jìn)的電池，而是采用現(xiàn)有技術(shù)并通過(guò)量產(chǎn)來(lái)降低成本。特斯拉理想的電動(dòng)車售價(jià)為3.5萬(wàn)美元。在降低成本方面，鋁空氣電池和固態(tài)電池都有潛在優(yōu)勢(shì)。鋁比鋰便宜得多，固態(tài)電池則可以像計(jì)算機(jī)芯片一樣“壓制”出來(lái)，比起鋰聚電池生產(chǎn)所需的金屬分層和軋制工藝效率高多了。

????據(jù)咨詢公司NextEnergy負(fù)責(zé)工業(yè)及創(chuàng)新發(fā)展的副總裁丹?拉多姆斯基介紹，對(duì)特斯拉來(lái)說(shuō)，針對(duì)新出現(xiàn)的創(chuàng)新調(diào)整非常困難，“這就和從盒式錄像帶轉(zhuǎn)向光盤(pán)差不多，會(huì)改變整個(gè)供應(yīng)鏈。”

????不過(guò)，汽車行業(yè)的需求也許能為特斯拉爭(zhēng)取一些時(shí)間。高溫和低溫對(duì)電池性能影響很大，相應(yīng)的安全標(biāo)準(zhǔn)當(dāng)然也很嚴(yán)格。雖然鋰聚電池在高溫環(huán)境下有些問(wèn)題，但經(jīng)歷了幾十年的考驗(yàn)后在汽車上使用已經(jīng)問(wèn)題不大。

????特斯拉也可以選擇改進(jìn)超級(jí)電池工廠的鋰聚電池。新加坡南洋理工大學(xué)的研究人員已經(jīng)開(kāi)發(fā)出可快速充電的二氧化鈦陽(yáng)極；馬克?赫爾薩姆教授在西北大學(xué)的團(tuán)隊(duì)則通過(guò)加入石墨烯等材料，將鋰聚電池陽(yáng)極的失電子能力提高了一倍。盡管陰極方面已經(jīng)落后，但特斯拉整合新材料應(yīng)該不用徹底革新鋰聚電池生產(chǎn)工藝。

????說(shuō)到底，特斯拉的電池工廠長(zhǎng)期維繼的最大問(wèn)題在于戰(zhàn)略，而不是技術(shù)。畢竟，實(shí)驗(yàn)室里的創(chuàng)新和實(shí)用產(chǎn)品不是一回事。正如PathionandSakti 3首席執(zhí)行官邁克爾?利德?tīng)査?，電池研究處于“零敲碎打”狀態(tài)，實(shí)際推進(jìn)有限。許多初創(chuàng)公司和研究人員都可以制造出更好的陰極、陽(yáng)極或者電解質(zhì)，但三者得完美結(jié)合才能成為電池。一直以來(lái)，很少有資金用在結(jié)合三者并大規(guī)模量產(chǎn)新電池方面。

????隨著凱迪拉克和寶馬等主要汽車廠商更積極開(kāi)拓電動(dòng)汽車市場(chǎng)，局面可能改變。電池技術(shù)已成關(guān)鍵競(jìng)爭(zhēng)點(diǎn)，花在新一代主流電池上的資金也不斷增多（通用汽車就是PathionandSakti 3的主要投資者之一）。電池領(lǐng)域正飛速革新，未來(lái)很可能會(huì)超過(guò)特斯拉CEO埃隆?穆斯克的想象。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????審校：夏林

????A disruptive shadow looms over Tesla Motors’ giantNevada “gigafactory”—the threat of rapidly advancing battery technology. While plenty of hurdles face new battery tech, the emergence of a viable and significantly better battery in the next five years could turn Tesla’s $5 billion facility for mass producing lithium-ion batteries into a giga-albatross.

????In January, Fuji Pigment Co. Ltd. (not affiliated with Fujifilm) announced that it had made a significant breakthrough in aluminum-air battery technology. Aluminium-air batteries have a theoretical capacity morethan 40 times greater than the lithium-ion cells Tesla will soon mass-produce, and Fuji Pigment has stated it will commercialize its innovation by the end of 2015. This means that the gigafactory’s products could already be outclassed before its target 2016 opening—and long before the estimated 7-10 years of full production it could take to recoup the factory’s costs.

????Battery innovation takes place within a rigid structure: every battery has two ‘sides,’ the cathode and anode, which react through an electrolyte medium to produce power. Analuminum-air battery generates electricity from the reaction of oxygen and aluminum, using water as an electrolyte. A standard aluminium-air reaction consumes the aluminum anode, which must be physically replaced rather than electrically recharged. But Fuji Pigment claims that, by adding strategically placed layers of ceramic and carbon, it has managed to suppress corrosion and reaction byproducts, creating an aluminium-air battery that can be recharged multiple times by simply adding water.

????Dr. Mark Hersam, professor of materials science and engineering at Northwestern University, says that it would be “stunning” if Fuji Pigment hit their target for commercialization. Among other unaddressed issues, he points out that aluminium-air batteries physically contract as they discharge, which can lead to fracturing and make them difficult to integrate into fault-intolerant automotive systems.

????In an email, Ryohei Mori, Fuji Pigment’s lead researcher on the aluminium-air project, sounded a slightly more cautious note than the company’s January press release. “We are still at developing stage, and maybe in the near future . . . we can work together with large scale.”

????But Fuji Pigment is not the only company working on a better battery. Israel’s Phinergy is also pursuing the aluminium-air dream, while American startups Pathionand Sakti 3 are looking at an even more radical innovation—solid-state batteries that replace liquid electrolytes with ceramic or crystal. Sakti 3 has successfully demoed a battery that produces 1,000 watt-hours of energy per liter of battery volume, which in practice could more than double the driving range of a current Tesla. Pathion CEO Michael Liddle projects that solid-state battery technology will be market-ready within two years.

????Of course, the main point of the gigafactory is not to produce cutting-edge batteries, but to produce existing tech on a scale that will bring costs down—Tesla hopes to sell an electric sedan for $35,000. But in this regard, too, both aluminium-air and solid-state batteries have a potential edge. Aluminum is far cheaper than lithium, and solid-state batteries could be ‘printed’ like computer chips, a much more efficient process than the layering and rolling of metal and gel that produces lithium-ion batteries.

????According to Dan Radomski, vice president for industry and venture development at the consulting firmNextEnergy, it would be very difficult for Tesla to pivot in response to these innovations. “It’s not too much different from us going from VHS to disc. It changes the entire supply chain.”

????The demands of the automotive sector may buy Tesla some time. Cars are subject to high and low temperatures that have a significant impact on battery performance, and the standard for safety is understandably high. While lithium-ion batteries have shown some problems in responding to high temperatures, decades of testing have gone into gaining it acceptance for use in cars.

????Tesla will also likely have some options for upgrading the gigafactory’s lithium-ion products. Researchers atNangyang Technological University have developed a fast-charging titanium dioxide anode, and Mark Hersam’s team at Northwestern has doubled the capacity of a lithium-ion anode by interlacing materials like graphene. Though cathode advances have trailed, integrating new materialswould not require a wholesale overhaul of the gigafactory’slithium-ion production process.

????Ultimately, the biggest question mark for the gigafactory’slong-term viability are less technological than strategic. An innovation in a lab is not the same as a working product, and Pathion’s Michael Liddle says that the piecemeal nature of battery research has limited real-world advances. Many startups and researchers can produce a better cathode, anode, or electrolyte, but all three must work together perfectly to make a battery. The capital to bring the pieces together, and bring production of new batteries to scale, has been scarce.

????But that’s likely to change with major manufacturers likeCadillac and BMW moving more aggressively into electrics. With range an ever more vital competitive point, increasing amounts of capital will be chasing the next big battery (GM is a major investor in Sakti 3). That could push the rate of change beyond what even Tesla CEO Elon Musk could have foreseen.