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陷入低谷的中國樓市已經(jīng)觸底了嗎?

陷入低谷的中國樓市已經(jīng)觸底了嗎?

Geoffrey Smith 2015年05月20日
國家統(tǒng)計局最新公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,北京在內(nèi)的中國70座大中城市的新房價格開始有回暖趨勢。一線城市反彈趨勢最明顯,北上廣深的房價均環(huán)比上升,二三線城市房價則繼續(xù)下滑。但中國經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨的阻力仍然實際存在。
樓市供給過剩……

????對陷入低谷的中國房地產(chǎn)來說,最艱難的時期已經(jīng)過去了嗎?

????本周一公布的最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示,北京在內(nèi)的中國70座大中城市的新房價格開始有回暖趨勢。

????國家統(tǒng)計局稱,今年4月48個城市的房價環(huán)比下跌,上漲的城市有18個。盡管市場仍呈負(fù)面態(tài)勢(48個城市的平均房價跌幅大于18個城市的漲幅),但比起幾個月前70個城市房價全線下跌的局面已經(jīng)好轉(zhuǎn)。二手房市場更活躍,房價上漲的城市有28個,下跌的有34個。

????一線城市反彈趨勢最明顯,北上廣深的房價均環(huán)比上升,二三線城市房價則繼續(xù)下滑。這種情況讓政府擔(dān)心,因為往往這些地區(qū)在開發(fā)新樓盤時借下大量債務(wù),而償債能力較弱。

????可以說,樓市是中國經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩背后的最大因素,因為房地產(chǎn)和建筑行業(yè)約占中國GDP的20%,而且對鋼筋、水泥和家電等行業(yè)都會產(chǎn)生連鎖反應(yīng)。去年,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速僅為7.2%,創(chuàng)20多年新低。許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為,今年中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速也將低于7%的官方目標(biāo)。

????Is the worst over for China’s bust real estate market?

????Prices for new residential buildings have started to tick up in some the country’s 70 largest cities, including the capital Beijing, according to new figures out Monday.

????The National Bureau of Statistics said that prices in April fell from March’s levels in 48 cities, but rose in 18. While that’s still a largely negative trend (and the prices declines in the 48 were on average bigger than the rises in the 18), it’s still better than the situation looked a couple of months ago, when they were heading down in all 70 cities surveyed. The dynamic was a bit stronger for existing home sales, where prices rose in 28 cities and fell in 34.

????It’s the first-tier cities which are leading the way: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen all posted increases from March. But prices continue to fall in second- and third-tier cities. That’s a worry for the government because the regions where they are based are generally less able to carry the debt that they have taken on to develop new projects.

????The housing market is arguably the single biggest factor behind the slowdown in China’s economy, as real estate and construction account for some 20% of gross domestic product, with knock-on effects on everything from steel bars and cement to household appliances. Growth slowed to its lowest annual rate in over 20 years last year, a ‘mere’ 7.2%, and many economists think it will fall short of the government’s target of 7% this year as well.

圖為房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)方面的投資增長率。盡管房價可能已觸底,但房地產(chǎn)對中國整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的推動力正在減弱。

????不過,數(shù)據(jù)顯示多項扶持政策或許已開始提振樓市。近幾個月,央行連續(xù)下調(diào)利率,并采取其他措施鼓勵銀行放貸;同時,政府降低了二套房的首付比例。

????商業(yè)地產(chǎn)市場也開始抬頭。今年前四個月,新增銷售面積只下降了3.1%,這是一年多來的最好業(yè)績。

????不過,沒人認(rèn)為房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)已經(jīng)擺脫困境。國家統(tǒng)計局的數(shù)據(jù)同時表明,今年1-4月份,開發(fā)商購地面積減少了32.7%。也就是說,長期依賴土地出讓收入的地方政府今后將迎來財政上的關(guān)鍵考驗。但這至少也意味著,樓市過剩的庫存也許不久就會清理完畢。(財富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:Charlie

????審校:夏林

????However, the figures suggest that the market may be starting to respond to a number of policy efforts to support it. In recent months, the central bank has cut interest rates and taken other measures to give banks more leeway to lend, while the government has loosened requirements on down-payments for second homes.

????The commercial property market is also picking up. Sales of new floor space fell by only 3.1% in the first four months of the year, their strongest performance in over a year.

????However, no-one is pretending that the sector is out of the woods yet. The NBS’s figures also show that the amount of land bought by real estate companies for development fell by 32.7% in the same period. That means crunch times ahead for local governments that have depended on such sales to finance their budgets. But at least it also means that the overhang of unsold properties might vanish before too long.

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