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GDP真的不值得關(guān)注嗎?

GDP真的不值得關(guān)注嗎?

Chris Matthews 2015-06-08
一本新書(shū)把全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的問(wèn)題歸咎于GDP統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),似乎與GDP相關(guān)的一切都是那么功利與不堪。對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的測(cè)算真的不再重要了嗎?讓我們來(lái)看看現(xiàn)實(shí)吧。

????菲力普森致力于戒掉世人的GDP“癮”。他將其比作棒球數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)的革命——“棒球記錄統(tǒng)計(jì)分析”運(yùn)動(dòng),其中最著名的記錄出現(xiàn)在美國(guó)財(cái)經(jīng)記者邁克爾?劉易斯的暢銷商業(yè)圖書(shū)《魔球》中。“棒球記錄統(tǒng)計(jì)分析”運(yùn)動(dòng)的觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為,擊球率、打點(diǎn)這類傳統(tǒng)的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)不能準(zhǔn)確衡量擊球員的價(jià)值,上壘率和長(zhǎng)打率等數(shù)據(jù)是更好的衡量指標(biāo)。不過(guò),棒球和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的差別是,棒球有清晰設(shè)定的目標(biāo):即跑壘得分超過(guò)其他隊(duì)。一般來(lái)說(shuō),如果某位棒球球員的上壘率高,其幫助本隊(duì)贏得的跑壘分?jǐn)?shù)會(huì)超過(guò)擊球率高的球員。

????與棒球比賽不同,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)并沒(méi)有類似“比其他隊(duì)跑壘得分高”的衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。菲力普森寫(xiě)道:“本書(shū)的基本假設(shè)是,人類努力奮斗的唯一目標(biāo)應(yīng)該是維持并提升福祉,而不是推動(dòng)收入或者經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)?!?/p>

????那什么又是人類福祉?菲力普森很清楚自己理解的福祉。他重視公平分配資源、保護(hù)環(huán)境和直接民主等問(wèn)題。然而,還有些問(wèn)題理應(yīng)得到重視,比如獲得物質(zhì)財(cái)富、通過(guò)努力工作實(shí)現(xiàn)自我價(jià)值,或者因?yàn)樗袡?quán)而感到自豪。菲力普森顯然不這么認(rèn)為。他在書(shū)中一度暗示,后世子孫對(duì)土地所有權(quán)的看法會(huì)像今天我們看待奴隸制一樣。

????大部分人都不同意菲力普森的觀點(diǎn),監(jiān)測(cè)GDP數(shù)據(jù)的政府無(wú)法對(duì)此視而不見(jiàn)。無(wú)論左派還是右派,人人都喜歡變得更富有。更重要的是,他們希望,當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)收縮,就業(yè)崗位減少時(shí),政府能做出響應(yīng)。

????此外,菲力普森也承認(rèn),經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)領(lǐng)域不乏衡量人類進(jìn)步的替代指標(biāo),比如實(shí)際進(jìn)步指標(biāo)可以追蹤GDP統(tǒng)計(jì)中遺漏的領(lǐng)域,包括環(huán)境退化和經(jīng)濟(jì)不平等。而這些問(wèn)題也不缺少公眾關(guān)注。和菲力普森反對(duì)的做法截然不同,過(guò)去六屆美國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選期間五次贏得多數(shù)票的民主黨已將經(jīng)濟(jì)不平等、兒童早教等問(wèn)題當(dāng)成宣傳平臺(tái)的關(guān)注重點(diǎn)。

????資本主義和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的概念比GDP早問(wèn)世100多年。人類發(fā)明了GDP這種統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)并且密切監(jiān)測(cè),是因?yàn)榻?jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)大多數(shù)人都很重要。衡量方法只是手段,而不是我們的目的。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:Pessy

????審校: 夏林

????Philipsen compares his effort to wean us off GDP with the revolution in baseball statistics called the “sabermetrics” movement, most famously documented in Michael Lewis’Moneyball. The movement argued that traditional statistics like batting averages and runs batted in didn’t accurately measure the value of a hitter, and that other statistics like on-base percentage and slugging percentage were better gauges. The difference between baseball and the global economy is, however, that in baseball there is a clearly defined goal: score more runs than the other team. A player with a high on-base percentage will, on average, help your team score more runs than a player with a high batting average.

????But there is no equivalent to “score more runs than the other team” in the global economy. Philipsen writes that, “the basic assumption of this book [is that] the sole object of our efforts should be to sustain and expand human well-being, not simply to promote income or growth.”

????But what is well-being? Phillipsen knows what he thinks is well-being. He values things like the equitable distribution of resources, the environment, and direct democracy. But there are other reasonable things to value, like material wealth, self actualization through hard work, and the pride of ownership. Philipsen, who at one point in his book suggests that our descendents will view land ownership the same way we view chattel slavery today, obviously doesn’t think so.

????The governments that track GDP can’t afford to ignore the large portion of the human population who disagree with Philipsen. And people, left or right, like getting richer. More importantly, they want their government to respond when the economy contracts and jobs disappear.

????Furthermore, Philipsen himself admits that the economics profession has no lack of alternative indicators for human progress, like the Genuine Progress Indicator, which capture things that GDP misses, including environmental degradation and economic inequality. Nor is there a lack of public attention to these issues. Despite Philipsen’s protestations to the contrary, the Democratic Party here in the U.S.–which has won the majority of votes in five of the six past presidential elections–has made issues like economic inequality and early childhood education major planks in its platform.

????Capitalism and economic growth are more than a century older than GDP. We invented the statistic, and closely track it, because economic growth is important to most people on the planet. We are not what we measure, but measure what we are.

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