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口碑經(jīng)濟(jì)的罪與罰

口碑經(jīng)濟(jì)的罪與罰

Jeffrey Pfeffer 2015-06-10
從使用打車軟件的司機和乘客,從醫(yī)生到教師,再到餐館,幾乎每個人和每件事現(xiàn)在都成了打分的對象。不過,這種所謂“口碑經(jīng)濟(jì)”存在很多問題。首先,打分的確很重要,但消費者的打分往往并不夠準(zhǔn)確,而且這種評價體系經(jīng)常會鼓勵一些錯誤的行為。事實證明,即使在口碑經(jīng)濟(jì)中,“謹(jǐn)防上當(dāng)”也仍然是一條顛撲不破的真理。
????

????幾年前,我一有極度不爽的修車經(jīng)歷,就會去點評網(wǎng)站Yelp上給那家修理廠打個低分。不過隨著好評不斷涌入,那條差評很快就從首頁上消失了。這讓我對所謂的“口碑經(jīng)濟(jì)”或“打分經(jīng)濟(jì)”開始產(chǎn)生懷疑。

????接下來的幾年,各種打分網(wǎng)站如雨后春筍般涌現(xiàn)。從心理醫(yī)生,到使用打車軟件的乘客,每個人和每件事現(xiàn)在都成了可以打分的對象。正如《紐約時報》專欄作家陶曼玲使用幽默的筆觸所寫的那樣,當(dāng)她很難打上車時,Uber乘客如今也在被司機們品頭論足。

????無所不在的打分究竟是好事還是壞事?帶著這個問題,我深入研究了“打分界”,并且很快發(fā)現(xiàn)了所謂“口碑經(jīng)濟(jì)”的很多問題。以下就是我的發(fā)現(xiàn)。

????打分很重要

????事實上,打分和聲譽的確非常重要,大多數(shù)人和企業(yè)都意識到了這一點。正是出于這一原因,Reputation.com(原名叫ReputationDefender)的創(chuàng)始人邁克爾?弗迪克才能開創(chuàng)出一門龐大的生意。據(jù)《衛(wèi)報》報道,這家成立于2006年的公司“迄今已經(jīng)幫助160萬個付費客戶展示其線上聲譽…搜索引擎顯示的結(jié)果都是其最討人喜歡的經(jīng)歷?!睙o論是真實的還是帶有部分“加工”成分,聲譽關(guān)系到一個人的職業(yè)前景,或創(chuàng)業(yè)公司的融資能力。而人們的社會地位又會影響其婚煙前景和事業(yè)伙伴。

????另外,打分也深刻地影響著消費者的選擇。一份針對1000余人的調(diào)查顯示,三分之二的受訪者會閱讀網(wǎng)上的評價,然后90%的人表示,他們的購買決定會受到正面評價的影響,86%的人表示負(fù)面評價也會影響他們的選擇。一些學(xué)術(shù)文獻(xiàn)也認(rèn)可消費者打分的重要性。一篇論文指出:“事實顯示,消費者的評論能夠用來預(yù)測購買決策……推動消費者進(jìn)一步評價……比專家評價的影響力還要大?!贝送猓撜撐倪€指出:“銷量數(shù)據(jù)是隨同產(chǎn)品評價增長的,而不是基于產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量?!?/p>

????消費者的打分準(zhǔn)確嗎?

????消費者打分的強大影響力引發(fā)了一個問題:這些評分既然能夠有力地影響人們的判斷和決策,那么它們究竟有多準(zhǔn)確呢?答案是,這要看你怎么定義“準(zhǔn)確”。

????在以下三個例子中,有的打分對選擇供應(yīng)商很重要,有的則不那么重要;同時它們用來衡量表現(xiàn)的客觀標(biāo)準(zhǔn)也不一樣。

????醫(yī)生

????就醫(yī)時能獲得最好的治療非常重要。治療結(jié)果通常來說是直觀的,比如病情好轉(zhuǎn)的程度,治療不當(dāng)引發(fā)其他病癥的幾率等,由此我們以為消費者能非常準(zhǔn)確地評價醫(yī)療服務(wù)的質(zhì)量,但實則不然。

????Consumer’s Checkbook是一個采用會員訂閱制的機構(gòu),主要在舊金山等幾座大城市運營。除了要求消費者對初級護(hù)理醫(yī)師進(jìn)行評分外,Checkbook還對大量執(zhí)業(yè)醫(yī)師進(jìn)行了調(diào)查,以確定各個??频淖罴厌t(yī)師提名。該機構(gòu)不接受任何廣告,同時它也有自己的醫(yī)生質(zhì)量排名。

????2014年,在病人評出的104名最高評級的初級護(hù)理醫(yī)師中,只有17人被他們的同行提名為最佳人選。另外在患者評出的最高評級的醫(yī)生中,只有60%被Checkbook評為最高級。

????A few years ago, when I had a hideously bad auto repair experience, I posted a negative rating on Yelp. And then soon the rating disappeared from the first page as positive ratings poured in. That experience made me suspicious about what has come to be called the reputation or ratings economy.

????Over the ensuing years, ratings and ratings websites have proliferated. Everyone and everything from mental health providers to, as Times columnist Maureen Dowd humorously noted when she had trouble getting a ride, Uber passengers now get rated.

????Curious about how and whether the ratings game was a good thing or not, I did a deep dive into this world and quickly discovered many problems with the reputation economy. Here is what I learned.

????Ratings matter

????Michael Fertik, the founder of Reputation.com (originally called ReputationDefender), has built a huge business on the fact that ratings and reputations matter and that most people and companies understand that. His company, started in 2006, “has curated the online reputation of 1.6 million customers who pay … to have their most flattering activities showcased to the world via search engines,” The Guardian reported. A person’s reputation—whether accurate, manufactured, or some combination of the two—can have an impact on job prospects and the ability to raise capital for startups. And people’s social status affects their marriage prospects and partners.

????Ratings profoundly affect consumer choice. One survey of more than 1,000 people reported that two-thirds of respondents read online reviews, that 90% of customers who accessed reviews said that their buying decisions were influenced by positive reviews, and 86% said that negative reviews influenced their choices. The scholarly literature concurs with the importance of consumer ratings. One article noted that, “consumer reviews have been shown to predict purchasing decisions … to drive further consumer ratings … and to have more influence than expert reviews.” Moreover, that same piece stated that, “sales figures increase as a function of product ratings rather than the quality of the product.”

????But are they accurate?

????The potent influence of consumer ratings raises the question: how accurate are these ratings that so powerfully affect judgment and decision-making? The answer to this question depends on what you mean by accurate.

????Consider three examples that vary both in the importance of selecting the right provider and also in the extent to which there are objective criteria of performance.

????Doctors

????There’s probably nothing more important than getting the best possible medical treatment. Medical outcomes, ranging from the degree of improvement in a person’s illness to the frequency of iatrogenic (medical-treatment caused) illness, are observable. You’d expect consumers to be fairly accurate in assessing the quality of the care they receive. But they aren’t.

????Consumer’s Checkbook, a membership-subscription organization that operates in several metropolitan areas, including San Francisco, asks consumers to rate primary care physicians. Checkbook also surveys practicing physicians for their nominations of the best doctors in various specialties, including primary care. The organization, which accepts no advertising, also performs its own physician quality ratings.

????Of the 104 top-rated primary care doctors as assessed by patients in 2014, just 17 were nominated as the best by their medical peers. And barely 60% of the doctors rated highest by patients were top-rated by Checkbook.

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