????一場圍繞著互聯(lián)化、電氣化、自動駕駛化（甚至包括共享化）汽車的競賽，正將各大汽車廠商推向生死存亡的十字路口。

????紐約Alix Partners公司上周二發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告顯示，未來7年，全球汽車銷量增長率將由2007年至2014年間的3.1%下降至2.6%。與此同時，為了研發(fā)自動駕駛、聯(lián)網(wǎng)、電氣化和汽車分享系統(tǒng)，各大廠商均面臨著日益增加的成本壓力。

????該報(bào)告還認(rèn)為，如果某些廠商沒能在這四個技術(shù)領(lǐng)域上做大做強(qiáng)，那么未來十年，它們必須與其他廠商進(jìn)行戰(zhàn)略結(jié)盟，或者與更大的公司合并，否則就有可能被拋在后面。

????Alix Partners公司的副總裁斯特凡諾?阿弗薩在一份聲明指出，各大廠商，特別是平價(jià)汽車品牌，必須要想方設(shè)法滿足研發(fā)“未來汽車”所需的研發(fā)資金和額外資本支出。

????結(jié)果就是，汽車業(yè)必然將面臨一次“大合并”。Alix Partners公司指出，目前很多汽車廠商通過合資和股權(quán)等方式建立了較強(qiáng)的聯(lián)系。汽車行業(yè)已建立了16家合資企業(yè)，17個裝配同盟，15個技術(shù)同盟，還有9家廠商手中握有其他汽車廠商的股權(quán)。

????汽車業(yè)過去也經(jīng)歷過合并的浪潮，以量取勝的平價(jià)品牌曾經(jīng)并購了不少高端品牌。Alix Partners公司認(rèn)為，這一次將出現(xiàn)更多由技術(shù)和品牌主導(dǎo)的并購，特別是新興的中國和印度車企可能將吃掉一些西方廠商。

????互聯(lián)性：強(qiáng)勁的催化劑

????雖然這四個領(lǐng)域之間也是互相關(guān)聯(lián)的，但互聯(lián)性幾乎是“未來汽車”所有方面的催化劑。根據(jù)互聯(lián)汽車論壇的數(shù)據(jù)，2015年全球銷售的20%以上的汽車都將包含內(nèi)置的互聯(lián)性解決方案，超過半數(shù)以上的汽車都能通過內(nèi)置、外接或智能手機(jī)集成功能實(shí)現(xiàn)互聯(lián)。

????Alix Partners預(yù)測稱，到2025年，每輛新車都將可以通過多種方式互聯(lián)。這無疑意味著將有大量資金投入到車聯(lián)網(wǎng)領(lǐng)域。該公司的報(bào)告認(rèn)為，隨著信息娛樂系統(tǒng)、導(dǎo)航、安全性等移動互聯(lián)方案成為潮流，到2018年，聯(lián)網(wǎng)汽車的市值將達(dá)到400億美元，其中超過半數(shù)的市值將流向應(yīng)用和服務(wù)方面。

????對于汽車廠商來說，光是開發(fā)新車型或研發(fā)新的動力系統(tǒng)已經(jīng)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠了。未來汽車行業(yè)的利潤不僅來自硬件，而且將更多地來自軟件以及實(shí)時數(shù)據(jù)收集與應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域。如果沒有滿足這種需求，汽車廠商就有可能被擅長軟件和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的競爭對手超越。

????谷歌與蘋果加入戰(zhàn)團(tuán)

????蘋果和谷歌是聯(lián)網(wǎng)汽車市場上的兩個主導(dǎo)者。這兩家公司均開發(fā)了能讓智能手機(jī)控制中控臺屏幕的車載互聯(lián)系統(tǒng)。只要用戶將智能手機(jī)插入汽車的USB接口，手機(jī)里的音樂、地圖、導(dǎo)航和精選應(yīng)用就能被集成到中控臺。

????通用、現(xiàn)代、三菱等汽車廠商都已宣布計(jì)劃稱，它們的新車型將提供蘋果CarPlay或谷歌Android Auto車載互聯(lián)系統(tǒng)——很多車型甚至將同時提供這兩個系統(tǒng)。

????雖然各方圍繞著Android Auto和CarPlay不斷發(fā)出聲明，但其實(shí)并沒有哪家汽車廠商已經(jīng)準(zhǔn)備好（或愿意）放棄自家的車載通訊和娛樂系統(tǒng)。比如豐田就沒有加入蘋果和谷歌的互聯(lián)平臺，而是正在研究是否采用SmartDeviceLink技術(shù)。該技術(shù)是福特AppLink的一個開源版本，可以使車主通過中控臺按鈕、顯示屏或語音識別技術(shù)來控制智能手機(jī)應(yīng)用。目前SDL技術(shù)主要由福特的子公司Livio進(jìn)行維護(hù)。

????自從1996年安吉星服務(wù)誕生以來，通用汽車就開始在其車型中提供某些版本的無線互聯(lián)技術(shù)?，F(xiàn)在，通用正在向別克、雪佛蘭、凱迪拉克和GMC的若干車型中加入Wi-Fi功能。它使用的是AT&T提供的一種新型4G無線模塊，使用戶可以享受到高速無線上網(wǎng)服務(wù)，其體驗(yàn)不遜于最新款的三星Galaxy設(shè)備或4G版iPad。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：樸成奎

????審校：任文科

????The race towards connected, electrified, self-driving (and even shared) cars is pushing automakers towards an existential crossroads.

????Global automotive sales will increase at an annual rate of 2.6% for the next seven years, down from a rate of 3.1% between 2007 and 2014, according to a study released Tuesday by New York-based Alix Partners. At the same time, automakers are under pressure to put an increasing amount of capital towards autonomous driving systems, connected features, electrification, and car-sharing options.

????Automakers that fail to master these four tech-centric areas over the next decade will be forced to make strategic partnerships, merge with larger companies, or risk being left behind, the report says.

????Most major automakers, especially mass market players will have to find ways of funding the additional capital expenditure and research and development investments required to master the car of the future, said Stefano Aversa, vice chairman of Alix Partners, in a statement.

????The upshot? The automotive industry is poised to undergo a major consolidation. Automakers are already linked by a series of joint ventures and equity stakes. In the industry today, there are 16 joint ventures, 17 assembly alliances, 15 technical alliances and nine deals where an automaker holds equity in another, Alix Partners says.

????The industry has gone through waves of mergers in the past, including a period when when volume players premium brands. Alix Partners predicts the industry could see more technology and brand-driven mergers and acquisitions with emerging Chinese and Indian players snapping up Western-based automakers.

????Connectivity: The great enabler

????While each of these four areas is linked, connectivity is the great enabler for practically all aspects of the car of the future. More than 20% of vehicles sold worldwide in 2015 will include embedded connectivity solutions and more than half will be connected either by embedded, tethered or smartphone integration, according to data from Connected Car Forum.

????By 2025, every new car will be connected in multiple ways, Alix Partners predicts. Not surprisingly, that means a lot of money is pouring into the connected car space. The drive to equip new cars with different mobile connectivity solutions—for infotainment, navigation, security, and safety features—will cause the connected vehicle market to double to $40 billion by 2018, the report predicts. More than half of that market will be dedicated to apps and services.

????It will no longer be enough for automakers to roll out new models or develop better powertrains and other components. Future profits will be linked not only to hardware, but increasingly to the car’s software and to real-time data collection and application, Alix Partners says. Automakers that fail to meet this demand risk losing out to software and Internet players.

????Google and Apple jump in

????Apple and Google are the two dominant players in the connected car market. The two companies have developed connectivity systems that allow the smartphone to take over a car’s center screen. Once users plug their smartphone into the car’s USB port, the phone’s music, maps and navigation, and selected apps are integrated onto the central screen.

????Several automakers, including GM , Hyundai, and Mitsubishi have announced plans to offer CarPlay or Android Auto—and in many cases both.

????Despite the seemingly endless cycle of Android Auto and CarPlay announcements, not all automakers are ready—or willing—to give up their own in-car communications and entertainment systems. For example, Toyota has not committed to either Apple or Google’s connectivity platforms. Instead, Toyota engineers are studying whether to adopt SmartDeviceLink technology, an open source version of Ford AppLink, which gives drivers command and control of smartphone apps through dashboard buttons, display screens and voice recognition tech. SDL is maintained by Livio, a subsidiary of Ford.

????GM has offered some version of wireless connectivity in its vehicles since 1996, when OnStar was born. Now thecompany is putting Wi-Fi into dozens of new Buick, Chevrolet, Cadillac, and GMC models, thanks to a new AT&T 4G radio module that gives users a high-speed link comparable to what you might experience on the latest Samsung Galaxy or 4G iPad.