《財富》雜志每年都會發(fā)布“財富美國500強”榜單，為美國最大的企業(yè)排定座次。自從1955年首次發(fā)布以來，上榜企業(yè)一直像走馬燈似的換了一茬又一茬，今年自然也是一樣。到2025年，肯定有很多我們幾乎沒聽說過的公司會將一些常年上榜的老牌企業(yè)或行業(yè)巨頭擠下這份榜單。

哪些熱門的創(chuàng)業(yè)公司和增長最快的企業(yè)，可能在下個十年內(nèi)加入“財富500強”？我們倒是不妨猜一猜。我們甚至可以直接從《財富》的年度增長最快上市公司排行榜上看出一些端倪。去年這張榜單主要被頁巖氣、金融服務業(yè)和房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)主宰。

不過我們的推測也就僅限于此了，因為我們需要的是數(shù)據(jù)支持，而不是腦洞大開的幻想。以下這份榜單基于財富500強企業(yè)過去5年的年均復合增長率，來推測每家上榜公司未來10年的增長情況。當然，將未來的增長率等同于過去并不是一種完美的假設。（比如，排在這份榜單之首的Energy Transfer Equity公司主要得益于一筆180億美元的收購，該公司估計需要幾年的時間才能把這筆資產(chǎn)完全消化，這種規(guī)模增長不可能重復。）另外，一個公司的增長也是有極限的。在我們的“2025年財富美國500強”榜單上，前6家公司的預期年收入高達1萬億美元以上，這幾乎是2014年“美國500強”之首沃爾瑪年收入的2倍多。當然，這個數(shù)值也是有彈性的。不管怎樣，這都是一次不錯的腦力練習。

顯然，作為科技業(yè)目前的“四巨頭”，蘋果、Facebook、亞馬遜和谷歌依然是這份榜單的主宰者。盡管這些公司已經(jīng)是成熟的大型企業(yè)，但它們?nèi)栽诔掷m(xù)發(fā)布新產(chǎn)品，收購令人興奮的創(chuàng)業(yè)公司，同時快速進軍新的業(yè)務領域。它們的收益增長也反映了這一點。

如果你是在2025年讀到這篇文章。歡迎你告訴我們這些預測錯了多少。

The Fortune 500, our annual ranking of the largest U.S. companies, has been in a constant state of flux since the first one was published in 1955. This year is no different, and surely by 2025, plenty of companies we’ve barely heard of will knock stalwarts and industry incumbents from the list.

We could easily speculate as to which hot startups and fast-growing businesses are destined to join the Fortune 500 in the next decade. We could even pull directly from our annual fastest-growing public companies list, which last year was dominated by the shale, financial services and housing/real estate sectors.

But our speculation would be just that. Rather than take wild guesses, we’ve turned to data. The following list takes the average compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, over the last five years for the Fortune 500 and uses that figure to extrapolate each company’s growth for the next 10 years. Assuming that past growth equals future growth is not a perfect methodology. (For example, our top pick, Energy Transfer Equity, has grown thanks to an $18 billion acquisition that it will likely take years to absorb and not be repeated.) Beyond that, one has to assume there are limits to how much a company can grow. The first six companies on our “Fortune 500 of 2025” list have projected revenues of more than $1 trillion. That’s more than double the 2014 revenue of Wal-Mart, the No. 1 Fortune 500 company on this year’s list, and feels like a bit of a stretch. Still, it’s a fun thought exercise.

The list is notably dominated by what’s thought of as the four horsemen of the tech industry: Apple, Facebook, Amazon, and Google. Even though they’re all large, maturing businesses, they have continued to roll out new products, acquire exciting startups, and push into new lines of business at an aggressive pace. Their revenue growth reflects that.

And if you’re reading this from the year 2025, feel free to let us know how wrong we were.

1.Energy Transfer Equity

管道運營商Energy Transfer Equity目前在財富美國500強榜單上排名第53位。在全球大宗商品價格普遍下跌的大背景下，該公司去年的營收依然增長了14%，年度利潤更是翻了3倍。如果該公司繼續(xù)維持過去5年的營收增長率，那么到了2024年，其營收將達到5.8萬億美元。不過實際上它未必會增長到這種程度，因為該公司近來的增長大半來自一筆大型收購，去年的營收實際只有560億美元。

1. Energy Transfer Equity

The company, ranked No. 53 on the Fortune 500 list, grew revenue by 14% last year and tripled its annual profits, even amid a global drop in commodity prices. If the company ETE -0.25% continues to grow at the same pace it did for the last five years, by 2024—and therefore our 2025 Fortune 500 ranking—it would have $5.8 trillion in revenue. That’s unlikely–most of the company's growth came from a big acquisition, and last year Energy Transfer Equity did just $56 billion in revenue.