????隨便瞅一眼任何一個主流媒體，你肯定都會看到關(guān)于某家創(chuàng)業(yè)公司或《財(cái)富》美國500強(qiáng)企業(yè)正在搞汽車自動駕駛技術(shù)的報(bào)道。

????自動駕駛汽車是指汽車通過一系列車內(nèi)科技，實(shí)現(xiàn)自動駕駛功能。目前這項(xiàng)技術(shù)正是一時之寵。本周，它排在了高德納公司《新興技術(shù)炒作周期》報(bào)告的榜首，緊隨其次的則是物聯(lián)網(wǎng)。這份一年一度的報(bào)告主要評估新技術(shù)距離被主流采用還有多遠(yuǎn)（從兩年內(nèi)到十年以上不等）。以下這張圖表反應(yīng)的是人們對這些新技術(shù)的預(yù)期和興趣。

????A quick scan of any major media outlet (even here) and readers are bound to run into an article about some start-up or Fortune 500 company working on autonomous driving tech.

????The autonomous vehicle—which can drive itself in autopilot mode using a variety of in-vehicle technologies—is the shiny plaything of the moment. And this week it landed at the top of Gartner Inc.’s Hype Cycle of Emerging Technologies report, right next to the Internet of Things. The annual report assesses how close new technologies are to mainstream adoption (less than two years away to more than 10 years off). The emerging technologies are plotted onto a chart that measures expectations and interest.

????雖然自動駕駛技術(shù)獲得了極大的關(guān)注，而且各大企業(yè)也在不斷取得進(jìn)展，但人們對這項(xiàng)技術(shù)的假設(shè)還是過于樂觀了。

????很多人都在想：大概要不了多久，我們就能坐在像休息室一樣的汽車?yán)铮屪詣玉{駛汽車載著我們四處逛了。這種想法未免太過樂觀。問題是，新興的自動駕駛技術(shù)與功能成熟的自動駕駛汽車之間還有很大的距離，這個距離要遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)大于各大媒體的報(bào)道所暗示的程度。

????高德納公司指出，傳感器、定位、成像、導(dǎo)航、人工智能、測繪、通訊技術(shù)以及先進(jìn)軟件和云計(jì)算等領(lǐng)域的進(jìn)步，正在使自動駕駛汽車越來越接近現(xiàn)實(shí)。但自動駕駛汽車的復(fù)雜性依然很高，同時相關(guān)成本也依舊居高不下。

????高德納公司的報(bào)告還指出，主流媒體連篇累牘的報(bào)道，也讓人們對自動駕駛技術(shù)產(chǎn)生了不切實(shí)際和過高的預(yù)期。

????高德納公司表示，從現(xiàn)實(shí)情況來看，自動駕駛汽車距離被主流采用還有五到十年的時間。首先，價格是一個主要的挑戰(zhàn)。其次，諸如可靠性等法律和倫理問題也是阻礙自動駕駛技術(shù)被廣泛采用的因素。高德納公司預(yù)計(jì)，考慮到技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的速度，以及各國、各州省乃至全球立法的情況，短期內(nèi)自動駕駛汽車可能只會被允許有限使用。比如，只能在低速城市道路或高速公路上行駛。

????高德納公司指出，自動駕駛技術(shù)的發(fā)展將經(jīng)歷三個階段。第一階段是自動化，第二階段是自主化，最終第三階段才是真正的無人駕駛汽車。目前包括奧迪、特斯拉、戴姆勒和寶馬在內(nèi)的一些公司已經(jīng)為自家車型加入了變道輔助等自主駕駛功能。今年6月，博世公司同意與戴姆勒和拼車公司car2go合作研究自動泊車項(xiàng)目。本周，特斯拉也發(fā)布了自動駕駛軟件升級版用于進(jìn)行測試。

????當(dāng)我們最終達(dá)到自動駕駛階段，整個行業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景將出現(xiàn)重大轉(zhuǎn)變。巴克萊銀行今年5月發(fā)布的一份報(bào)道預(yù)測稱，在一個由自動駕駛汽車主宰的社會中，美國的汽車銷量將下降40%，汽車擁有率將下跌50%，屆時像福特、通用汽車這樣的老牌廠商將面臨著要么適應(yīng)、要么死亡的艱巨關(guān)口。這種轉(zhuǎn)變也將為科技創(chuàng)業(yè)公司和車輛租賃公司創(chuàng)造不少商機(jī)。

????高德納公司的《新興技術(shù)炒作周期》報(bào)告還包括以下新興技術(shù)：

????? 帶有自助服務(wù)交付功能的先進(jìn)分析技術(shù)

????? 加密貨幣

????? 語音翻譯

????? 可穿戴設(shè)備

????? 機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)

????? 數(shù)字化技巧

????? 微型數(shù)據(jù)中心

????? 智能顧問

????（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：樸成奎

????審校：任文科

????And while much of the attention toward autonomous vehicles is warranted—companies are making continued advancements in self-driving tech—it’s producing some starry-eyed assumptions.

????We’ll all be zipping around in vehicles outfitted more like lounges than cars any day now, right? Hardly. And that’s the problem: The gap between emerging self-driving tech and fully autonomous vehicles is much wider than the prominent media coverage might suggest.

????Progress in sensors, positioning, imaging, guidance, artificial intelligence, mapping, and communications technologies, combined with advanced software and cloud computing, is bringing autonomous vehicles closer to reality, according to Gartner. However, the complexity of self-driving cars and the associated costs remain high.

????Plus, widespread and prominent coverage by mainstream media is leading to unrealistic and inflated expectations, Gartner says in its report.

????In reality, autonomous vehicles are five to 10 years away from mainstream adoption, Gartner says. Cost is a primary challenge. Legal and ethical issues such as liability are other hindrances. Gartner predicts that the pace of technology innovations and individual country, state, and global legislation will likely lead to specific, limited-use cases for self-driving vehicles in the short term. For instance, low-speed city driving or highway driving.

????The road to autonomous driving will occur in three phases: automated, autonomous, and finally, driverless vehicles, Gartner says. Companies including Audi, Tesla Motors TSLA -5.12% , Daimler DDAIY -2.58% , and BMW already have autonomous driving features in cars such as lane steering assist. In June, Bosch agreed to join Daimler and car-sharing company car2go in an automated parking project; and this week Tesla released its autopilot software upgrade to some beta testers.

????When we do reach the driverless car phase, the economic outlook for entire industries will undergo a massive shift. A Barclays report released in May predicts that in a society dominated by self-driving cars, U.S. auto sales might fall 40% and vehicle ownership could drop 50%, forcing entrenched automakers such as Ford Motor Co. and General Motors to adapt or die. This shift will also create opportunities for tech start-ups and rental car companies.

????Other emerging technologies at the top of Gartner’s Hype Cycle include:

????? advanced analytics with self-service delivery

????? cryptocurrencies

????? speech-to-speech translation

????? wearables

????? machine learning

????? digital dexterity

????? micro data centers

????? smart advisers