????預(yù)測泡沫何時破裂，是一種很愚蠢的行為。比如說去年，在一篇談?wù)摼W(wǎng)絡(luò)設(shè)備供應(yīng)商Arista Networks的文章中，我開始鼓吹這種觀點。我此前曾經(jīng)撰寫過一篇關(guān)于這家公司的報道，該公司隨后主動提出愿意在首次公開募股時給我一定數(shù)額的股票。我推想，這種沒有志氣的做法明顯說明有些事超出了他們的掌控。正如我們所知道的，躋身《財富》獨(dú)角獸榜單的公司（即價值不低于10億美元的私人公司）數(shù)量就是從那時開始增加的，而Arista的股價幾乎達(dá)到了上市價格的兩倍。

????無論從質(zhì)上還是量上看，新的泡沫跡象已經(jīng)太多。股市波動和美聯(lián)儲加息前景引發(fā)的恐懼，正在給科技經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)送危險信號。資本越來越匱乏，也越來越昂貴，這個事實對那些自信滿滿的科技公司造成的傷害，將遠(yuǎn)超那些經(jīng)驗不足的企業(yè)領(lǐng)袖的預(yù)計。實際上，十足的自信本身就是一種被忽略的危險信號。為了加深體會，我強(qiáng)烈建議大家讀一讀尼克?比爾頓在《名利場》雜志發(fā)表的泡沫特寫。圈內(nèi)人嘲笑比爾頓的描述毫無新意。這倒沒錯。但如果你忽視他這種由點及線的總結(jié)，后果自負(fù)。

????美國政府部門已發(fā)出了微妙信號。舊金山市政府原本計劃在市中心建立一個超大型交通項目，然而就在上周，政府在土地拍賣開始前18小時取消了競標(biāo)。據(jù)《舊金山紀(jì)事報》報道，核心競標(biāo)者表示，國際股市的崩盤讓他們感到恐慌，不愿參與競標(biāo)。這塊土地可以容納一座750英尺的高樓，原計劃募集多達(dá)2億美元的資金。

????來自某家企業(yè)高層的信號則更加微妙。一家名為Zeetings的澳大利亞公司前不久給我發(fā)來電子郵件，邀請我與即將來美的該公司首席執(zhí)行官碰個面。據(jù)我所知，Zeetings是一個免費(fèi)工具，可以幫助用戶把PowerPoint幻燈片變得更加炫酷，從而“顛覆演示概念”。這家初出茅廬的公司稱eBay正在使用他們的產(chǎn)品，于是我回信問他們?nèi)绾斡?。沒人回答我的問題。Zeetings能否成功我不知道，但數(shù)百家類似公司將很快消亡。

????泡沫的另一個顯著跡象是傲慢自大。風(fēng)險投資家原本就是一群非常自信的家伙，他們現(xiàn)在變得近乎狂妄。他們會發(fā)表文章講述“在39歲生日之際實現(xiàn)人生目標(biāo)”，并在文章末尾高呼：“到了大干一場的時候了?！蹦銈冏约簛淼贸鼋Y(jié)論吧。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

????審校：任文科

????Predicting when bubbles will burst is a foolish exercise. I began beating the drum, for example, in an articlelast year about Arista Networks, which offered me shares in its upcoming IPO after I’d written about the company. Such craven behavior, I reasoned, was a sure sign that things had gotten out of hand. As we know, Fortune’s unicorn list of private companies worth $1 billion or more has only grown since then; Arista’s stock nearly doubled from its listing price.

????New signs of a bubble, qualitative and quantitative, abound. Public-market volatility and interest rate fears are legitimate red flags for the tech economy. Scarcer and more expensive capital will hurt swaggering tech companies more than their inexperienced leaders realize. The swagger itself is an underappreciated warning sign. To catch the vibe, I highly recommend Nick Bilton’s bubble feature in Vanity Fair. Insiders sniff that Bilton offers nothing new. True. Ignore his connect-the-dot exercise at your peril.

????Here’s a subtler sign of the top. Last week the government authority building a massive, traffic-clogging transportation project in downtown San Francisco cancelled a land auction 18 hours before its start. Key bidders said they were too spooked by markets to participate, the San Francisco Chroniclereported. The parcel is question can handle a 750-foot tower and was expected to fetch as much as $200 million.

????Subtler still are the subjective signs of a top. An Australian company called Zeetings emailed recently to set up a meeting with its visiting CEO. Zeetings, I was told, is a free tool that is “changing the presentation game” by letting users spice up their PowerPoint slides. I replied by asking how the fledgling company, which brags that eBay has been using its product, makes money. No one responded. Whether or not Zeetings makes it, there are hundreds of companies like it that soon won’t exist.

????The hubris factor is another obvious tell. When venture capitalists, a confident lot, become so full of themselves that they publish essays about their life goals upon turning 39 that end with the rallying cry that “its [sic] time to really start fucking some shit up …”, well, I’ll let you draw your own conclusions.