????“獨(dú)角獸公司”可能已經(jīng)失去了騰飛的空間。

????最近，獨(dú)角獸公司的健康狀況引發(fā)了越來(lái)越多的關(guān)注。這些私營(yíng)公司估值超過(guò)10億美元，其中大多數(shù)為科技公司?！敦?cái)富》雜志上個(gè)月報(bào)道稱，許多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資家都有一份“垂死的獨(dú)角獸”清單，記錄了他們預(yù)測(cè)將遭遇失敗的高估值初創(chuàng)公司。許多初創(chuàng)公司的商業(yè)行為、會(huì)計(jì)處理及其技術(shù)主張最近也備受詬病。

????與此同時(shí)，IPO市場(chǎng)也不盡如人意。First Data公司進(jìn)行了今年規(guī)模最大的IPO之一，但其定價(jià)卻低于預(yù)估區(qū)間。連鎖超市艾伯森決定推遲上市。最近上市的科技公司的股價(jià)均表現(xiàn)平平。

????結(jié)果便是：盡管所有的獨(dú)角獸最初都希望跨過(guò)那道神奇的彩虹，變成一家點(diǎn)石成金的公司，但越來(lái)越清楚的是，并非所有公司都能走到最后。

????當(dāng)然，如此多高估值私有公司突然涌現(xiàn)的一大原因是，有一種觀念認(rèn)為，創(chuàng)業(yè)者們保持公司私有化的時(shí)間會(huì)更長(zhǎng)。此外，許多公司可能并未做好上市的準(zhǔn)備。

????市場(chǎng)研究機(jī)構(gòu)CBInsights公司CEO阿南德·桑瓦爾表示：“眾所周知的IPO窗口不會(huì)對(duì)所有公司敞開(kāi)。許多獨(dú)角獸公司的基本面并未得到驗(yàn)證，現(xiàn)在進(jìn)入IPO市場(chǎng)可能會(huì)受到傷害?！?CBInsights有一份獨(dú)角獸公司名單。

????但投資者們終究需要找到套現(xiàn)的方式，尤其是距離上一次融資已經(jīng)過(guò)去許多年的公司。IPO市場(chǎng)便是主要的套現(xiàn)方法之一。初創(chuàng)公司也可能被收購(gòu)，這是投資者收回投資的另外一種方式。但考慮到某些獨(dú)角獸公司龐大的規(guī)模，IPO或許更加可行。因此，越來(lái)越多之前對(duì)上市問(wèn)題一直遮遮掩掩的公司，可能會(huì)很快進(jìn)行IPO。

????Benchmark公司風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資家比爾·格利曾經(jīng)警告獨(dú)角獸公司會(huì)出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題。他表示：“我們必須拋棄一種錯(cuò)誤的觀點(diǎn)，即‘保持私有化更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間’是個(gè)好主意。這條糟糕的建議，將使行業(yè)損失大量的股權(quán)價(jià)值。許多公司無(wú)法完成從私有公司向上市公司的轉(zhuǎn)變?！?/p>

????獨(dú)角獸公司或許能夠完成這種轉(zhuǎn)變，但這要看IPO市場(chǎng)能否達(dá)到其最佳狀態(tài)。下面是一些統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)：根據(jù)最新統(tǒng)計(jì)，目前約有140家獨(dú)角獸公司，其中僅有90多家位于美國(guó)。根據(jù)有據(jù)可查的最新一輪融資數(shù)據(jù)，這90多家獨(dú)角獸公司的估值超過(guò)了3100億美元。為了回報(bào)早期投資者，大多數(shù)公司在上市時(shí)給出的估值，會(huì)高于最新一輪融資時(shí)的估值。按照目前的形勢(shì)，估值提高20%聽(tīng)起來(lái)較為合理，由此我們得出的數(shù)字是3750億美元。但如果市場(chǎng)再次火爆起來(lái)，獨(dú)角獸公司的估值恐怕會(huì)更高。

????此外，公司上市時(shí)，并不會(huì)出售所有股份。過(guò)去二十年間，公司上市時(shí)平均出售的股份為35%。這意味著，所有在美國(guó)的獨(dú)角獸公司上市時(shí)，IPO投資者們需要認(rèn)購(gòu)價(jià)值1310億美元的新發(fā)行股票。

????IPO市場(chǎng)從未在一年之內(nèi)達(dá)到如此龐大的融資規(guī)模。市場(chǎng)研究公司Dealogic的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在IPO最為火爆的2000年，新發(fā)行股票共融資1050億美元。但在過(guò)去20年，IPO市場(chǎng)的平均融資規(guī)模僅有560億美元。今年，IPO市場(chǎng)的融資規(guī)?？s小到350億美元，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)無(wú)法實(shí)現(xiàn)所有獨(dú)角獸公司的夢(mèng)想。

????而且，即便所有獨(dú)角獸公司都想上市，他們也不可能全都選在明年。它們將在多年內(nèi)分散上市。另外，多數(shù)科技公司在IPO中出讓的公司所有權(quán)比例，要比其他公司低20%左右。如此一來(lái)，獨(dú)角獸公司的IPO融資需求將減少到750億美元，如果分散在多年內(nèi)上市，是可行的。

????市場(chǎng)研究公司Class V Group的萊斯利·普夫朗一直在為公司上市提供咨詢。她認(rèn)為，獨(dú)角獸公司及其投資者不必?fù)?dān)心。她表示，市場(chǎng)有充足的資本，即便馬上有一批獨(dú)角獸公司扎堆上市，市場(chǎng)資金也足以滿足它們的融資需求。

????但她只考慮了獨(dú)角獸公司。還有許多其他公司也在等待上市，有些公司甚至比初創(chuàng)公司更加成熟。私募股權(quán)公司之前進(jìn)行了大量的杠桿收購(gòu)，艾伯森便是其中之一，它們同樣渴望上市。另外，根據(jù)Dealogic的統(tǒng)計(jì)，已經(jīng)有68家公司提交了申請(qǐng)文件，正在等待上市。更重要的是，未來(lái)還會(huì)有更多的獨(dú)角獸公司誕生。CBInsights的一份清單列出了另外50家估值即將達(dá)到10億美元的私有公司，其中多數(shù)位于美國(guó)。等待上市的獨(dú)角獸公司的隊(duì)伍將變得日益龐大。

????獨(dú)角獸公司不只限于科技公司，但科技公司占了很大一部分。而單純從科技公司的角度來(lái)看，對(duì)于現(xiàn)在的IPO市場(chǎng)，600億美元看起來(lái)是一個(gè)龐大的數(shù)字，甚至在未來(lái)幾年內(nèi)也是如此。2000年，科技公司IPO的融資規(guī)模達(dá)到了史上最高的440億美元，這一數(shù)字從未被超越，只有去年的表現(xiàn)最為接近。今年，已有22家科技公司上市，但僅融資了76億美元。

????因此，獨(dú)角獸們恐怕要在漫長(zhǎng)的等待中，為自己的命運(yùn)祈禱了。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????審校：任文科

????The unicorns may be running out of room to fly.

????Recently, there has been growing concern about the health of the private companies, mostly tech firms, that have been nicknamed unicorns because they have been valued at more than $1 billion. Fortune reported last month that a number of venture capitalists keep ‘dying unicorn’ lists, tallies of the highly valued startups that they expect to go under. And a number of these startups have recently come under attack for their business practices, accounting, or claims about their technology.

????Meanwhile, the IPO market has been showing some cracks. First Data, one of the biggest IPOs of the year, ended up pricing below its range. Supermarket chain Albertsons decided to delay its IPO. And the stock performance of tech companies that have recently IPOed have been lackluster.

????The result: Even if all the unicorns were originally on a path to becoming companies that generated gold at the end of the magical rainbow, it’s becoming increasingly clear that not all will complete the journey.

????Of course, there are so many of these highly valued private companies in the first place because there was a sense that entrepreneurs would be keeping their companies private for longer. What’s more, many of the companies probably aren’t ready to go public.

????“The proverbial IPO window is not open for all of these companies,” says Anand Sanwal, the CEO of CBInsights, which maintains a unicorn list. “The fundamentals of many of these companies are far from proven. They would get chewed up in the IPO market right now.”

????But investors are eventually going to be looking for a way to cash out, especially for companies that have gone a few years since their last funding. And the IPO market is one of the primary methods to cash out. Startups also get acquired, another means for investors to collect. But given how big some of these companies have become, an IPO is more likely. As a result, more and more of the companies that were shy about going public may soon be looking to do so.

????“We have to work past the erroneous mythos that ‘stay private longer’ was a good idea,” says venture capitalist Bill Gurley, of Benchmark, who has been warning that unicorns could be running into problems. “That one really bad piece of advice is going to cost the industry a ton of equity value. Many won’t be able to make the shift.”

????The unicorns could make this shift, but the IPO market would have to have one of its best years ever for that to work. Here are the numbers: There are roughly 140 unicorns by the latest tallies, and just over 90 of them are based in the U.S. Based on their last recorded round of funding, those 90-plus unicorns are worth just over $310 billion. To reward early investors, most companies that go public usually do so at a higher valuation then what they were valued at when they last raised money. Add another 20%, which sounds reasonable now, but if the market gets hot again it could be much more than that, and we are up to around $375 billion.

????Still, companies don’t sell all of their shares when they IPO. Over the past two decades, the average has been 35%. That means for all the U.S.-based unicorns to go public, IPO investors would have to buy $131 billion worth of newly issued shares.

????That’s never happened in a single year. The best year ever for IPOs was 2000, according to data from research firm Dealogic. That year, new issues raised $105 billion. But the average for the IPO market over the past 20 years has been $56 billion. This year, the IPO market has slumped to just $35 billion, far less than what’s needed to satisfy all the unicorns’ dreams.

????Then again, even if all the unicorns wanted to go public, it’s unlikely they would do so in the next year. It would probably be spread out over a few years. What’s more, most tech companies tend to sell a smaller portion of their ownership in an IPO than other companies, more like 20%. That brings the IPO ask from the unicorns down to $75 billion, which, spread out over a number of years, is possible.

????Leslie Pfrang, who advises companies on IPOs at Class V Group, says the unicorn companies and their investors have nothing to worry about. She says there is plenty of capital out there for IPOs, even if a bunch of the unicorns all decided to stampede the IPO market at once.

????But that’s only considering the unicorns. There are other companies looking to go public as well, some of them more established than startups. Private equity firms have lots of former leveraged buyouts – Albertsons is one of them – that they would like to take public. This doesn’t include the 68 companies that have already filed documents and are waiting to go public already, according to Dealogic. What’s more, there are more unicorns coming. CBInsights has a list of 50 other private companies, mostly based in the U.S., that are likely to soon get $1 billion valuations. The unicorn waiting line is getting longer.

????The unicorns aren’t just tech companies, but a lot of them are. And if you look at just tech deals, $60 billion starts to look like a big number for the IPO market again, even over a few years. The tech IPO market peaked in 2000 at $44 billion, and it has never gotten back there, though last year was the closest it’s been. This year, 22 tech companies went public, raising just $7.6 billion.

????Based on that, the current blessing of unicorns could have a very, very long wait.