????上周一（10月19日），中國(guó)政府公布的6.9%的第三季度GDP增長(zhǎng)率創(chuàng)下六年新低，匯豐駐香港經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家王然和李婧隨后寫道：

????“總的來說，今天的數(shù)據(jù)表明中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)有了一些企穩(wěn)跡象，但挑戰(zhàn)依然存在。我們預(yù)計(jì)，2015年剩余時(shí)間內(nèi)，政策利率將再下調(diào)0.25個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，存款準(zhǔn)備金率也將下調(diào)1.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)?！?/p>

????四天后，即上周五（10月23日），中國(guó)人民銀行的雙降公告如期而至——金融機(jī)構(gòu)一年期貸款基準(zhǔn)利率下調(diào)0.25個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，降至4.35%，存準(zhǔn)率也下調(diào)了0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

????這兩位匯豐經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家確有預(yù)見性。不過，和以前一樣，其他人也是如此。

????9月份，參與彭博調(diào)查的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們預(yù)測(cè)，中國(guó)央行將在2015年底前再次降低存準(zhǔn)率并下調(diào)貸款利率。他們的平均預(yù)期是，2015年內(nèi)貸款基準(zhǔn)利率將下調(diào)0.25個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，2016年底前存準(zhǔn)率將下調(diào)整整1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

????因此，縱觀一年來中國(guó)為扭轉(zhuǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩局面而付出的努力，上周五的消息可能是其中最不讓人感到意外的一次。

????幾乎所有關(guān)注中國(guó)的人都認(rèn)為2015年利率將進(jìn)一步下調(diào)，在這種情況下，如果股市投資者覺得降息出人意料并因此推高股價(jià)（有專家表示，這條消息讓美國(guó)股市上漲了1%），那就意味著要么中國(guó)的實(shí)際情況和一些觀察人士對(duì)中國(guó)的看法之間存在脫節(jié)，要么上周五股市上漲的原因在中國(guó)之外。股市是一個(gè)復(fù)雜的系統(tǒng)，出現(xiàn)后一種情況的可能性更大（就在中國(guó)央行宣布雙降前一天，歐洲央行實(shí)際上已經(jīng)承諾12月份進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大寬松，再給市場(chǎng)“發(fā)糖”，這樣的消息當(dāng)然有益無(wú)害）。

????眼下中國(guó)情況如何呢？最明了的解釋也許是中國(guó)原來的增長(zhǎng)模式，或者說固定資產(chǎn)投資的作用已經(jīng)達(dá)到了極限；而新的增長(zhǎng)模式——消費(fèi)的驅(qū)動(dòng)作用還不夠大，無(wú)法完全取代前者。因此，中國(guó)政府看來正在控制經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的步伐，以免它陷入停滯，并為此推出了降息等一系列貨幣政策以及基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資等財(cái)政措施。下調(diào)利率后，購(gòu)房者可以少還一些抵押貸款，企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)成本也將略有下降。只不過，很難想象會(huì)有大批中國(guó)公司因?yàn)槔氏抡{(diào)0.25個(gè)百分點(diǎn)而激動(dòng)不已，因?yàn)楣I(yè)生產(chǎn)者出廠價(jià)格指數(shù)（PPI）正以每年近6%的速度下滑，意味著對(duì)應(yīng)的實(shí)際利率（剔除通脹因素）在10%以上。這是嚴(yán)重的債務(wù)緊縮，而中國(guó)企業(yè)已經(jīng)債臺(tái)高筑——公司債務(wù)超過中國(guó)GDP的150%，在全球已是最高級(jí)別。

????正是出于這個(gè)原因，不讓公司債務(wù)違約，無(wú)助于中國(guó)實(shí)施更大的結(jié)構(gòu)性改革。投資咨詢公司Gavekal Capital分析師布賴斯·考沃德寫道：“降息對(duì)中國(guó)的長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)前景實(shí)際上毫無(wú)影響……這些都是周期性刺激措施，作用是為中國(guó)這趟經(jīng)濟(jì)列車刮起一陣順風(fēng)。但除了颶風(fēng)，沒有什么風(fēng)能阻止這趟列車慢下來。”

????政府可能覺得放緩沒什么問題。但如果上述那些負(fù)債累累的公司有可能把經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩演變成嚴(yán)重得多的局面，情況就會(huì)有所不同了。

????據(jù)消息人士透露，從中國(guó)央行傳出的信息表明，經(jīng)濟(jì)減速危及企業(yè)讓中國(guó)政府非常擔(dān)心。《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》指出，今年夏季之前，像上周五那樣的雙降對(duì)中國(guó)央行來說一直都是不尋常之舉。該報(bào)援引一位央行高級(jí)官員話說：“許多企業(yè)的盈利能力都急劇減弱，這是央行當(dāng)天再次采取行動(dòng)的關(guān)鍵性原因。”

????本周二，穆迪信用評(píng)級(jí)服務(wù)得出結(jié)論說：“增長(zhǎng)放慢是中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)再平衡過程的一部分。”

????不過，上周五的情況證明，就算經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的預(yù)測(cè)完全正確，但對(duì)中國(guó)和海外市場(chǎng)來說，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)再平衡恐怕絕不會(huì)一帆風(fēng)順。

????譯者：Charlie

????校對(duì)：詹妮

????This is what two HSBC economists named Julia Wang and Jing Li in Hong Kong wrote last Monday after China announced its lowest GDP growth record, 6.9%, in six years:

????Overall, today’s data point to some signs of stabilisation in the Chinese economy. But challenges remain. We forecast another 25 basis points (0.25 percentage points) policy rate cut and 150 basis points (1.5 percentage points) reserve ratio cut in the remainder of 2015.

????Four days later, on Friday, the People’s Bank of China did just that, announcing a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark lending rate to bring it down to 4.35%, while reserve-requirement ratios for lenders were reduced by 50 basis points.

????The HSBC economists were prescient. But, then again, so was everyone else.

????Economists that Bloomberg surveys predicted back in September that China’s central bank would relax reserve requirements for banks again before the end of 2015 and cut lending rates. The median estimates: the central bank would lower the benchmark lending rate by 0.25% in 2015 and reserve requirements by a full percentage point by the end of 2016.

????So Friday’s news could have been the least surprising in the last year of China’s efforts to speed up the slowing locomotive that is its economy.

????If almost everyone following China expected more interest rate cuts in 2015, yet stock market investors were surprised by the cuts and sent stocks rising (pundits said U.S. stocks rose 1% on the news) , there’s either a disconnect between what’s happening across China and what some observers think is happening, or, more likely, stock markets, which are complex systems, rose on Friday because of reasons beyond China. (The fact that it came only one day after the European Central Bank virtually promising to give markets another sugar rush in December probably didn’t harm, either.)

????For now, what is happening in China? The clearest explanation may be that China’s old growth model—fixed investment— has hit its limit, and its next growth model—consumption–isn’t strong enough to replace it completely. So the government appears to be managing a slowdown so the economy doesn’t come to a standstill, unleashing a series of monetary fixes like interest rate cuts, and fiscal fixes, like infrastructure spending. Lower interest rates allow homebuyers to save some on their mortgages, and also, at the margings, reduce the cost of finance for companies, although it’s hard to see many Chinese companies getting too excited about a 0.25 percent cut when producer prices are falling at an annual rate of nearly 6%, implying a real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) interest rate of over 10%. This is savage debt deflation, and Chinese companies are deeply indebted—corporate debt is more than 150% of GDP, among the highest in the world.

????This is why keeping companies from defaulting won’t help China with its bigger, structural transition. “Cuts in rates mean practically nothing for China’s long-term economic prospects,” writes Gavekal Capital’s Bryce Coward. “…These are cyclical boosts that act as tailwinds to China’s economic train. No amount of wind, save a hurricane, is going to keep the train from slowing.”

????The government is likely fine with a slowdown. But not when those previously mentioned indebted companies might turn a slowdown into something far more serious.

????Sources leaking info from China’s central bank indicate that the government is freaked out now that the slowing economy is imperiling companies. The Wall Street Journal notes that until this summer, it was unusual for China’s central bankers to employ the twin salvo of interest rate cuts and bank reserve ratio requirement cuts, which the bank did on Friday. “A lot of companies have seen their profitability falling sharply and that’s a key reason why we took the action again today,” a ‘senior official’ at the PBOC told the newspaper.

????“Slower growth is part of China’s rebalancing process,” Moody’s credit rating services concluded today.

????But that rebalancing may be anything but smooth for China and world markets, as evidenced Friday, even if economists get all their predictions right.