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iPad Pro就能拯救平板電腦市場?

iPad Pro就能拯救平板電腦市場?

Don Reisinger 2015年11月14日
平板電腦市場及廠商在困境中掙扎了幾年之后,大屏幕和健康的需求(再加上適度的炒作)有望共同讓這種產(chǎn)品走出陰霾。

????蘋果公司的iPad Pro已經(jīng)開始發(fā)售,也許,亟待翻身的平板電腦市場正需要這樣的產(chǎn)品。

????平板電腦市場呈直線下滑態(tài)勢。研究機構(gòu)國際數(shù)據(jù)公司(IDC)10月份發(fā)布報告稱,今年第三季度平板電腦發(fā)貨量為4870萬部,同比下降12.6%。市場龍頭蘋果和三星的發(fā)貨量分別減少了19.7%和17.1%。如果不是二合一平板電腦,也就是帶有可拆卸鍵盤、兼具平板和筆記本電腦功能的那些產(chǎn)品,這個市場的形勢可能會更糟。

????實際上,平板電腦市場問題多多。IDC指出,主要問題之一是越來越多的消費者開始轉(zhuǎn)向大屏幕智能手機,或者說平板手機,而非小尺寸平板電腦,從而造成平板電腦市場顯著放緩。更何況,人們現(xiàn)在持有保有平板電腦的時間比以前長得多,更換頻率明顯下降。

????對此,IDC全球移動設(shè)備季度追蹤項目主管瑞安·里思指出:“我們得到的反饋依然表明,平板電腦的更新?lián)Q代周期超過四年?!?/p>

????但市場仍在向前發(fā)展。除了二合一平板電腦,人們重新認識到大屏幕平板電腦也許是打開成功之門的鑰匙。所謂大屏幕平板電腦,通常指的是屏幕尺寸達到或超過12英寸的平板電腦。

????就在短短幾個月時間里,全球一流科技企業(yè)中就有三家推出了大尺寸平板電腦——iPad Pro的屏幕為12.9英寸,三星最近發(fā)布的Galaxy View則配備了18.4英寸屏幕,微軟的最新平板電腦產(chǎn)品Surface Pro 4的屏幕尺寸也達到了12.3英寸。

????IDC研究主管讓·菲利普·布沙爾指出,這三款產(chǎn)品表明,世界上一些頂尖的科技公司相信大屏幕產(chǎn)品將“有益于平板電腦市場”。根據(jù)IDC追蹤每個季度追蹤,他認為大屏幕也許是扭轉(zhuǎn)市場的關(guān)鍵。

????布沙爾說:“平板電腦做得越來越大,原因是這方面的需求較為旺盛,就(目前的)平均售價而言,競爭還不是那么令人窒息,利潤率也較高。借助這樣的策略,廠商還可以在便攜式個人電腦更新?lián)Q代領(lǐng)域分得一大塊蛋糕。”

????技術(shù)和市場研究機構(gòu)Forrester Research副總裁兼首席分析師J.P.·岡德爾也認為,iPad Pro這樣的產(chǎn)品將為平板電腦市場提供幫助。但他指出,這些產(chǎn)品的作用不是提升銷量,而是帶動整個市場的收入增速。

????岡德爾說:“大屏幕產(chǎn)品必將有利于平板電腦市場,但必須具體情況具體分析,價格較高的大尺寸平板電腦將有良好表現(xiàn),比如iPad Pro和Surface Pro 4,但它們無法讓銷量達到價格較低的小屏幕產(chǎn)品在巔峰時期的水平。因此,我們不能繼續(xù)把銷量作為衡量市場的唯一指標,iPad Pro和售價99美元的7英寸安卓設(shè)備絕不屬于同一個市場,所以真的不應(yīng)該采用這樣的思路?!?/p>

????另一個需要考慮的重要因素是,廠商也會因此受益。布沙爾和岡德爾都指出,大屏幕平板電腦的利潤率要高得多。它們的定價通常遠高于小屏幕產(chǎn)品,但成本不會上升那么多。因此,蘋果和三星等公司推出的大屏幕平板電腦也許不會提高銷量,但熱門大屏幕產(chǎn)品有望顯著提高收入并增厚利潤,這得益于它們的單位利潤高于尺寸較?。ǘ覂r格較低)的平板電腦。

????布沙爾說:“目前對小屏幕平板電腦的看法是成本超低,競爭格外激烈,利潤率和回報率低。它們基本上以量取勝,或者像亞馬遜那樣,是提高Prime服務(wù)和廣告等其他收入的手段。”

????他指出:“大屏幕平板電腦才是王道”,理由是單位利潤率較高。

????雖然岡德爾和布沙爾都沒有斷言大屏幕產(chǎn)品是否足以終結(jié)平板電腦市場的直線下墜——畢竟,預(yù)見到這個市場會像現(xiàn)在這樣陷入困境的人也很少,甚至沒有——但他們都相信,隨著幾類消費者為了大屏幕平板電腦而進入市場,此類產(chǎn)品將開始影響小尺寸筆記本電腦的銷售。

????岡德爾指出:“大屏幕平板電腦將吸引產(chǎn)消者(他們把樂趣融于事業(yè))、流動性極強的上班族(現(xiàn)在他們可以在路上接觸到比別人多得多的內(nèi)容和App)、學(xué)生以及80后和90后。通過和生產(chǎn)率以及媒體消費(比如Netflix)搭上關(guān)系,這些產(chǎn)品為人們提供了流動性極強的移動計算方案。”

????他還說,大尺寸平板電腦對企業(yè)用戶也有吸引力。Forrester的研究顯示,2010年公司僅占平板電腦總采購量的6%;到2020年,這個數(shù)字將增至20%,這都要歸功于大屏幕產(chǎn)品。

????布沙爾指出,看來市場趨勢終于開始朝著有利的方向邁進了。平板電腦市場及廠商在困境中掙扎了幾年之后,大屏幕和健康的需求(再加上適度的炒作)有望共同讓這種產(chǎn)品走出陰霾。他認為:“消費者正在尋找一種新的東西,實際上就是能讓他們變得富有成效的產(chǎn)品。眼下對大屏幕平板電腦的宣傳力度也加大了?!?/p>

????換句話說就是,趕快呈上iPad Pro,市場已經(jīng)準備好了。(財富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:Charlie

????Apple’s iPad Pro is launching on Wednesday, and it may just be what the tablet market needs to stage a much-needed turnaround.

????The tablet market is in free fall. Research firm IDC reported in October that during the third quarter, total tablet shipments fell 12.6% year-over-year to 48.7 million units. Market leaders Apple AAPL -3.15% and Samsung SSNLF 4.76% saw shipments fall 19.7% and 17.1%, respectively. If not for two-in-one hybrids, or devices that come with a detachable keyboard so they may be used as a tablet or notebook, things would have been even worse for the market.

????The troubles facing the tablet market are numerous. One of the main issues, IDC reported, was that consumers were increasingly turning to large-screen smartphones, or “phablets,” rather than small-screen tablets, causing a significant slowdown in that end of the market. Meanwhile, owners are now holding onto their tablets for much longer, leading to a meaningful decline in the pace at which consumers are buying new tablets.

????“We continue to get feedback that tablet users are holding onto devices upwards of four years,” Ryan Reith, program director for IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers, said in a statement.

????Still, the market is pressing on, and aside from growth in hybrids, there’s a renewed sense that large-screen tablets may be the ticket to success. In just the last couple of months, three of the world’s largest technology companies have unveiled large-screen tablets. Apple’s iPad Pro comes with a 12.9-inch screen, while Samsung’s recently unveiled Galaxy View features an 18.4-inch display. Microsoft’s MSFT -1.20% latest tablet, the Surface Pro 4, comes with a 12.3-inch screen.

????Those devices indicate that some of the world’s top tech companies believe big-screen tablets—which are often viewed as having screen sizes of 12 inches or larger—will “help the tablet market,” Jean Philippe Bouchard, research director at IDC, says. He added that IDC, which tracks the market each quarter, believes big-screen slates may be critical to a market turnaround.

????“Companies are going big because demand is stronger, it is less cut-throat in terms of average selling price (for the moment) and margins are better,” Bouchard says. “It’s also a way to take a chunk of the aging portable PC installed base.”

????J.P. Gownder, vice president and principal analyst at Forrester Research, agrees that devices like Apple’s iPad Pro will help the tablet market, but he argues that the benefit they’ll bring won’t be in unit sales, but rather marketwide revenue growth.

????“Large-screen tablets will definitely help the tablet market, but we have to put things into context: Big, expensive devices like iPad Pro or Surface Pro 4 will do well, but they won’t generate the volume that small, cheap tablets did at their peak,” he says. “So we have to stop measuring the market just by volume: An iPad Pro and a $99 Android 7-inch tablet simply aren’t part of the same market, and shouldn’t really be thought of as such.”

????There’s also a benefit for vendors. According to both Bouchard and Gownder, companies have much higher margins on large-screen tablets. They’re typically priced at substantially more than their smaller-screen counterparts but don’t have the same leap in cost. For companies like Apple and Samsung, therefore, offering a large-screen tablet may not result in more unit sales, but a popular big-screen slate could generate far more revenue and boost profits, thanks to higher per-unit profit compared to their smaller (and cheaper) counterparts.

????“Small screen tablets are currently perceived as ultra-low-cost devices and ultra-competitive with low margins and return,” Bouchard says. “It’s basically a volume game or in Amazon’s case, a play to increase other revenues such as Prime or ads.”

????“Big screen tablets are the way to go,” he added, pointing to higher per-unit margins.

????While neither Gownder nor Bouchard could say if the devices will do enough to end the tablet market’s free fall—few, if any, after all, could have predicted its current troubles—the researchers believe that big-screen tablets will start to eat into smaller notebook sales as several types of customers enter the market for large-screen slates.

????“Large-screen tablets will appeal to prosumers (who mix business with pleasure), hyper-mobile workers (who can now access a great deal more content and many more apps on the go), students, and millennials,” Gownder says. “By tapping into productivity as well as the consumption of media (like Netflix NFLX 2.59% ), these devices offer a hyper-mobile option for on-the-go computing.”

????Gownder added that larger tablets will also appeal to corporate customers. In 2010, just 6% of all tablet purchases were made by businesses, Forrester research shows. That figure will jump to 20% by 2020, thanks to big-screen tablets.

????Ultimately, Bouchard says, the trend seems to be heading in the right direction. After years of trouble for the tablet market and the companies that make them, the confluence of big screens and healthy demand (along with a nice dose of hype) could lead the device type out of its dark ages.

????“[Customers are] looking for something else, essentially something they can be productive on,” Bouchard says. “There’s also a bigger hype at the moment for larger screens.”

????In other words, bring on the iPad Pro. The market is ready.

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