中國上一季度的GDP增速首次“破七”，探低至6.9%。

中國國家主席習(xí)近平日前作出迄今為止最明確的表態(tài)：中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長目標(biāo)將調(diào)低至6.5%。盡管官方目標(biāo)直到明年3月份公布備受期待的“十三五規(guī)劃”時才會揭曉，但北京方面已經(jīng)開始大力宣傳“經(jīng)濟(jì)新常態(tài)”理念。這意味著，更低的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度（雖然依舊高于國際水平）和經(jīng)濟(jì)體制改革將并行存在。

毫無疑問，中國政府的首要目標(biāo)是保持經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定增長。10月30日央行降息的目的正是刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)。此次降息后，金融機(jī)構(gòu)的利率將下調(diào)0.25%，降至4.35%。相較于目前的國際標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，這一水平依舊較高，這也為未來大幅降息留出余地——這是許多國家目前不具備的“奢侈品”。

降息幾乎不能被看做中國經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入困境的跡象之一。這樣做的原因可能是，上個季度的GDP增速低于7%。盡管許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家懷疑中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)有水分，但他們依舊認(rèn)為，6.5%的增速符合中國經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型期的現(xiàn)狀。當(dāng)然，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)將很難達(dá)到更高的增速。事實(shí)上，隨著中國逐漸邁入發(fā)達(dá)國家行列，經(jīng)濟(jì)增速勢必將繼續(xù)走低。

向消費(fèi)型經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型將為私人投資者帶來了機(jī)遇。種種跡象顯示，中國政府對經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)一步自由化持支持態(tài)度。

服務(wù)業(yè)在中國GDP的占比已增至44%，較2011年的44%大幅增加。中國目前占全球智能手機(jī)市場的34%，鉆石和高端珠寶市場的12%，在線游戲市場的18%。但不健全的金融市場則成為投資的障礙。因此，金融市場改革也成為政府關(guān)注的要點(diǎn)之一。

事實(shí)證明，金融行業(yè)改革并不容易。政府正在鼓勵私人資本通過私人投資的銀行進(jìn)入銀行業(yè)，但主導(dǎo)金融行業(yè)的依舊是國有銀行。銀行提供的信貸仍然占融資總額的90%。

當(dāng)然，從放款人的角度來看，為國有或國家控股實(shí)體融資的風(fēng)險，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于為中小企業(yè)融資。中國經(jīng)濟(jì)存在的一個顯而易見的問題是，中小企業(yè)缺乏資金，改革的目標(biāo)之一自然是為它們提供充足的貸款。政府一直在推動私營金融公司成為國有銀行貸款市場之外的另外一種信貸來源。

政府的首要任務(wù)是建立多層次的資本市場系統(tǒng)，包括股票、債券、期貨和私募股權(quán)市場，并允許市場發(fā)揮決定性作用。但國有企業(yè)持續(xù)存在的影響力、地位及結(jié)構(gòu)，將使這項(xiàng)任務(wù)變得異常艱難。國有企業(yè)的主要股東依舊是行使管理控制權(quán)地方或中央政府。

上市公司大部分為國有企業(yè)。出于政治和社會原因，政府需要對它們進(jìn)行扶持。這些國有企業(yè)從國有銀行主導(dǎo)的銀行體系當(dāng)中獲得最多的信貸，并且吸引了風(fēng)險厭惡型投資者的資本。國有企業(yè)享有的被保護(hù)地位，使放款人不愿意投資除銀行業(yè)之外的領(lǐng)域，尤其是扶持中小企業(yè)。這種地位勢必會導(dǎo)致資本市場扭曲。

到目前為止，旨在推動國有企業(yè)對市場做出更快反應(yīng)更快的努力鮮有成功。這意味著，中國金融市場的進(jìn)一步發(fā)展，將取決于信貸公司、私人銀行和專注于中小企業(yè)上市的“第三板”市場的發(fā)展。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

本文作者何衛(wèi)平（音）為莫納什大學(xué)法律專業(yè)講師。

譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

審校：任文科

Last quarter’s GDP growth missed the 7% mark.

Overnight, Chinese President Xi Jinping gave the strongest indication yet the country will revise down its economic growth goal to 6.5%.

The official target will not be known until China releases its highly anticipated 13th five-year plan in March next year, but play has already been made on the idea of the “economic new norm.” This means lower percentage rates of economic growth (although rates still high in international terms) coupled with structural economic reform.

Undoubtedly, the primary goal is to keep the economy growing strongly. The latest interest rate cut on Oct. 30 was intended to stimulate the economy. As a result, the financial institution interest rate was reduced by 0.25% to 4.35%. This remains high by current international standards and leaves room for further significant cuts, a luxury not currently available in many economies.

The cut can hardly be considered a sign of economic desperation. It may have been prompted because last quarter’s GDP growth missed the 7% mark, but 6.5%, even allowing for the alleged suspect nature of Chinese economic statistics, is still a rate many economists consider consistent with the “transitioning” economy. Certainly percentage growth rates higher than these are unlikely to be seen again and growth is in fact sure to trend lower as China moves to become a developed economy.

The transition to a more consumer-based economy offers opportunities for private investors, especially given signs of official support for continuing economic liberalization.

The services sector has grown to 52% of the country’s GDP, as opposed to 44 % in 2011. China now accounts for 34% of the world’s smart phone market, 12% of the diamond and high end jewellery market, and 18% of the online games market. But poorly developed financial markets are an impediment to investment. Accordingly, financial market reform is a matter of government concern.

The path of reform in the financial sector has proven to be difficult. The government is encouraging private capital to enter the banking sector via the privately-funded banks, but the sector remains dominated by government controlled banks. Credit provided by banks still makes up 90% of all financing.

Of course, from the perspective of lenders, financing state-owned or controlled entities (SOEs) involves less risk than financing small to medium enterprises (SMEs). One perceived problem with the economy is this lack of funding for SMEs, and naturally a goal of reform is to provide adequate credit for smaller organizations. There has been an attempt to promote private finance companies as an alternative source of credit to the state controlled bank lending markets.

The government’s overarching goal is to establish a multi-layered capital markets system including shares, debt, futures, and private equity markets. The objective is to allow markets to play a decisive role. But the continuing influence and position of the SOEs and their structure, in which the main shareholders remain local or central government authorities who exercise managerial control, makes this difficult.

Listed companies mostly remain SOEs, which need to be supported for political and social reasons, and these capture most of the credit available from the state dominated banking system and capital from risk averse investors. The protected position of SOEs discourages lenders from investing in places other than the banking sector, and in particular from supporting SMEs. The protected position of SOEs inevitably distorts the capital markets.

There has so far been little success in making SOEs more market responsive. This means further development of financial markets in China depends on the growth of credit companies, privately funded banks, and also the “third board” market, which focuses on SME listings.

He Weiping is a lecturer in law at Monash University.