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蘋果、特斯拉和優(yōu)步都不具備顛覆性

蘋果、特斯拉和優(yōu)步都不具備顛覆性

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2015-12-31
顛覆性創(chuàng)新之父,哈佛商學(xué)院王牌教授克萊頓?克里斯坦森對(duì)這一理論正本清源,聲稱蘋果、特斯拉和優(yōu)步都不算是顛覆性創(chuàng)新。那么,什么才是顛覆式創(chuàng)新?

無意中聽到有人談?wù)撎O果、特斯拉和優(yōu)步如何顛覆各自的市場(chǎng),讓我想起了電影《安妮?霍爾》中的一個(gè)場(chǎng)景(如上圖所示):在爭(zhēng)論馬歇爾?麥克盧漢的冷媒和熱媒理論時(shí),伍迪?艾倫動(dòng)用殺手锏——他求助于這一理論最高權(quán)威,即麥克盧漢本尊。

麥克盧漢對(duì)艾倫扮演的角色,一個(gè)自命不凡的哥倫比亞大學(xué)學(xué)者說道:“你對(duì)我的作品一無所知。你能在什么都不懂的情況下講授一門課,真是令人吃驚?!?/p>

現(xiàn)在站在舞臺(tái)中央的是克萊頓?克里斯坦森。在《創(chuàng)新者的窘境》(The Innovator’s Dilemma,1997)、《創(chuàng)新者的解答》(The Innovator’s Solution,2013,與邁克爾?雷納合著)這兩部具有開創(chuàng)意義的著作中,這位哈佛商學(xué)院王牌教授向大眾普及了顛覆性創(chuàng)新理論。

他告訴批評(píng)者,尤其是《紐約客》,以及一大批擁護(hù)者,他們當(dāng)中的絕大多數(shù)對(duì)自己的作品一無所知。

在《哈佛商業(yè)評(píng)論》12月的一篇文章中,克里斯坦森、雷納和洛里?麥克唐納,給顛覆性創(chuàng)新的概念劃清了界限。

他們?cè)噲D重申他們?cè)诮?0年前展現(xiàn)給世界的這一想法:“盡管得到了廣泛傳播,但這一理論的核心概念被大量誤解,其基本原理常常被誤用。”

顛覆性創(chuàng)新的基本原理是什么?我盡可能簡(jiǎn)要地概括出三個(gè)必要條件:

1. 有一家生機(jī)勃勃的小型初創(chuàng)公司采用了一種新型商業(yè)模式與巨頭正面競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。

2. 有一群新的低端消費(fèi)者,它們要么被現(xiàn)有公司過度服務(wù)(這些公司總想取悅最好的客戶),要么根本沒有得到服務(wù)。

3. 某種科技促進(jìn)因素,讓這家小企業(yè)掌握了某些優(yōu)勢(shì),得以進(jìn)入高端市場(chǎng)。等到巨頭們發(fā)現(xiàn)小企業(yè)的威脅時(shí),已經(jīng)太晚了。

這些是必要條件。如果沒有同時(shí)滿足這三條,就不具備科技上的顛覆性。

至少,創(chuàng)造該理論的人是這么說的。

按照他們的標(biāo)準(zhǔn),蘋果、特斯拉和優(yōu)步都不符合要求。

蘋果在發(fā)布iPhone時(shí)不能算是一家生機(jī)勃勃的初創(chuàng)公司。

特斯拉是一家初創(chuàng)公司,但他們是從高端市場(chǎng)進(jìn)軍汽車業(yè)的。

優(yōu)步的市場(chǎng)既不新,也沒有被過度服務(wù)。你沒有聽到過乘客會(huì)抱怨出租車太快或是座椅太舒適。

顛覆式創(chuàng)新的理論家們認(rèn)為,這三家公司只是想出了招徠顧客的更好方式。他們利用了現(xiàn)有市場(chǎng),把事情做得更好。

那么什么才是顛覆式創(chuàng)新?顛覆式創(chuàng)新長什么樣?維基百科提供了一個(gè)有用的例子:

“汽車不屬于顛覆性創(chuàng)新,因?yàn)樵缙诘钠囀歉叨说纳莩奁?,并未顛覆馬車市場(chǎng)。運(yùn)輸市場(chǎng)本質(zhì)上沒有受到?jīng)_擊,直到1908年廉價(jià)的福特Model T推出。這種大批量生產(chǎn)的汽車屬于顛覆性創(chuàng)新,因?yàn)樗淖兞诉\(yùn)輸市場(chǎng),而汽車面世的前30年并沒有做到這一點(diǎn)?!?/p>

你可能會(huì)問,那有什么區(qū)別?使用什么術(shù)語真的那么重要?

克里斯坦森的團(tuán)隊(duì)認(rèn)為這非常重要。這個(gè)概念原本出自計(jì)算機(jī)磁盤驅(qū)動(dòng)器市場(chǎng)的創(chuàng)新,它不僅是一個(gè)理論,還是一種在創(chuàng)新頻繁,市場(chǎng)變動(dòng)劇烈時(shí)期管理企業(yè)的訣竅。

他們寫道:“必須正確運(yùn)用這一理論,才能體現(xiàn)出它的好處。你很可能不必在意那些侵蝕你邊緣業(yè)務(wù)的小型競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者——只有他們處于顛覆性創(chuàng)新的模式下,才可能造成致命的威脅。”

了解這一區(qū)別可能很重要。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:嚴(yán)匡正

審校:任文科

Overhearing people talk about how Apple, Tesla, and Uber disrupted their respective markets, I’m reminded of that scene in Annie Hall, pictured above, where Woody Allen settles an argument about Marshall McLuhan’s theories of hot and cool media by turning to the highest authority at hand—McLuhan himself, dragged in from offstage.

“You know nothing of my work,” says McLuhan to Allen’s foil, a pretentious academic from Columbia University. “How you ever got to teach a course in anything is totally amazing.”

Enter, stage left, Clayton Christensen. He’s the Harvard professor who popularized the theory of disruptive innovation in two seminal works: The Innovator’s Dilemma (1997) and, with Michael Raynor, The Innovator’s Solution (2013).

He’s here to tell both his critics (notably in the New Yorker) and his admirers that most of them know nothing of his work.

In an article in the December issue of the Harvard Business Review, Christensen and Raynor have, with Rory McDonald, drawn a line in the sand. On one side is disruptive innovation. On the other is everything else.

“Despite broad dissemination,” they write, trying to re-take control of a powerful idea they loosed on the world nearly 20 year ago, “the theory’s core concepts have been widely misunderstood and its basic tenets frequently misapplied.”

What are those basic tenets? Putting it as simply as I can, there are three necessary conditions:

There’s a small, scrappy start-up that is taking on the big guys with a new business model.

There’s a new class of low-end customers who are either over-served by established companies (that are always trying to please their best customers) or not being served at all.

There’s a technological accelerant that gives the little guy an edge he can use to move up-market. By the time the big guys realize they’re in danger, it’s already too late.

These are necessary conditions. If you don’t have all three, you don’t have technological disruption.

Or so say the guys who created the theory.

And by their measure, Apple, Tesla, and Uber don’t fit the bill.

Apple was hardly a scrappy start-up when it introduced the iPhone.

Tesla was a startup, but it entered the car business from the high end.

Uber’s market is neither new nor over-served. You don’t hear many taxi customers complaining that their cab came too fast or the ride was too comfortable.

All three companies, the disruption theorists argue, merely built better mousetraps. They took existing markets and made things better .

So what IS a disruptive innovation? What does THAT look like? Wikipedia offers a useful example:

“The automobile was not a disruptive innovation, because early automobiles were expensive luxury items that did not disrupt the market for horse-drawn vehicles. The market for transportation essentially remained intact until the debut of the lower-priced Ford Model T in 1908. The mass-produced automobile was a disruptive innovation, because it changed the transportation market, whereas the first thirty years of automobiles did not.”

By now you are probably asking what difference it makes. Does it matter what terms we use?

Team Christensen argues that it does. The ideas, drawn originally from a study of innovation in the computer disk drive market, offer not just a theory, but prescriptions for management in a time of great innovation and market upheaval.

“Applying the theory correctly is essential to realizing its benefits,” they write. “Small competitors that nibble away at the periphery of your business very likely should be ignored—unless they are on a disruptive trajectory, in which case they are a potentially mortal threat.”

Knowing the difference probably matters.

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