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從日本經(jīng)濟(jì)“危機(jī)”看中國二孩政策緊迫性

從日本經(jīng)濟(jì)“危機(jī)”看中國二孩政策緊迫性

Chris Matthews 2016-01-06
盡管日本經(jīng)濟(jì)在2015年第三季度再度萎縮,或許是這一年最讓人寒心的財(cái)經(jīng)新聞,但人口數(shù)量持續(xù)下降才是日本經(jīng)濟(jì)的根本性問題。

在剛剛過去的這一年,令人提心吊膽的經(jīng)濟(jì)新聞層出不窮。而日本最近的困境可能是最令人寒心的警世故事。這個(gè)全球第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的GDP在2015年第三季度萎縮了0.8%,這也是日本最近7年來第五次在第三季度出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

盡管日本首相安倍晉三付出了巨大的努力,試圖讓國家擺脫通貨緊縮和負(fù)增長的困擾,但效果平平。他的提振經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)劃包括投入數(shù)十億美元進(jìn)行大規(guī)模刺激,推行結(jié)構(gòu)性勞動(dòng)力改革,松動(dòng)銀根,但結(jié)果卻不盡人意。其中,部分原因在于政治壓力不斷升級(jí),但真正的原因卻更加深層:作為全球老齡化最嚴(yán)重的人口,日本的人口數(shù)量正在萎縮。

這個(gè)島國的人口在過去十年內(nèi)下降了0.6%,而65歲以上的人口卻增加了20.4%,如今占總?cè)丝诘谋壤^四分之一。面對著未來商品市場的萎縮,日本公司沒有意愿進(jìn)行資本投資。盡管政府的介入使得日本失業(yè)率維持在較低的水準(zhǔn),但人們的實(shí)際工資卻沒有實(shí)質(zhì)性增長,所以日本消費(fèi)者也沒有增加開銷的理由。

In a year with no shortage of scary economic stories, Japan’s recent woes may be the globe’s most chilling cautionary tale. The world’s third-largest economy shrank by 0.8% in the third quarter of 2015, sending the country into its fifth recession in seven years in November.

That’s despite the herculean efforts of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to rescue the country from the grip of disinflation and negative growth. His plan to jump-start the economy—a multibillion-dollar combination of massive stimulus, structural labor reforms, and monetary easing—has fallen flat, partly because of escalating political pressure. But the real reason goes deeper: Japan’s population, the world’s oldest, is shrinking.

The archipelago’s population has fallen 0.6% in the past decade, while the share of the population older than 65 has risen from 20.4% to more than a quarter. The result is that Japanese companies, facing the prospect of a smaller market for goods, see little reason to invest in new capital spending. And although government intervention has kept unemployment low, real wage growth has been stagnant, giving Japanese consumers little reason to increase their spending either.

不過,與其他國家相比,日本在短期內(nèi)還不會(huì)更差。到2050年,美國、中國和德國等大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體的人口中也會(huì)有22%超過65歲,這會(huì)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和公共資金支持的社會(huì)保障體系產(chǎn)生重大影響。日本的債務(wù)占GDP比例為全球最高,不過迫在眉睫的債務(wù)也可能導(dǎo)致其他國家的這項(xiàng)比例飆漲。

高頻經(jīng)濟(jì)公司首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家卡爾?維恩伯格表示:“對我們來說這是一種新的經(jīng)歷。”富有的國家過去一直把整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長看作理所當(dāng)然。他說,而日本,“則是一次現(xiàn)實(shí)的檢驗(yàn)。”

要緩解這個(gè)問題,政府能做的事情很有限。日本的量化寬松項(xiàng)目(比美國的規(guī)模要大很多)由日本銀行每月購買80萬億日元的政府債務(wù)。以這樣的購買速度,到2027年,中央銀行就會(huì)擁有日本全部的政府債務(wù),不過,在此之前,這種貨幣就會(huì)崩潰。

全球能避免類似于當(dāng)下在日本醞釀的財(cái)政風(fēng)暴嗎?我們可以從日本移民這個(gè)不同的角度來考慮。盡管日本政界的恐慌情緒越來越嚴(yán)重,但年輕的移民可以幫助抵消生育率衰退和人口老齡化帶來的影響。畢竟,所有的刺激措施都無法讓日本的人口增長。維恩伯格表示:“日本需要的不是償債能力,它需要的是人口。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:嚴(yán)匡正

審校:任文科

Compared with the rest of the world, though, Japan may not be worse so much as early. Large economies, such as those in the U.S., China, and Germany, are all projected to have 22% of their population over age 65 by 2050, which has vast implications for economic growth and publicly funded social safety nets. Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio is the highest in the world, but looming obligations could cause others to balloon as well.

“This is a new experience for us,” says Carl Weinberg, chief economist with High Frequency Economics. The rich world has historically taken its collective steady economic growth for granted. Japan, he says, “is a reality check.”

There’s a limit to how much the government can do to alleviate the problem. Japan’s quantitative-easing program (far larger in scale than equivalent efforts in the U.S.) has the Bank of Japan buying 80 trillion yen’s worth of government debt each month. At that rate of purchase, the central bank would own every last dollar of Japanese government debt by the year 2027, though the currency would collapse before that happened.

How can the world avoid a fiscal storm similar to the one now brewing in Japan? It can start by thinking differently from the Japanese on immigration. Despite the panic they increasingly evoke in political circles, younger immigrants can help offset declining birthrates and an aging population. All the stimulus in the world can’t make Japan’s population grow. “Japan doesn’t need liquidity,” Weinberg says. “It needs people.”

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